Scientists Uses Anti-Correlation To Gain Correlation Confidence: New study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense
…UN report gets extreme weather claims correct: Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. UN IPCC AR5: ‘Increasing hurricanes? No. Floods? No. Drought? No. Tornadoes/thunderstorms? No. Extreme weather meme now firmly zombie science’
…New paper finds models have a high rate of ‘false alarms’ in predicting drought – – Published in Geophysical Research Letters
New paper finds models have a high rate of ‘false alarms’ in predicting drought
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-models-have-high-rate.html
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that “On average, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models,” and that the models have a high rate of “false alarms.” The paper adds to the numerous peer-reviewed studies highly critical of climate models, pointing to a multitude of failings including improper simulations of temperature and precipitation, volcanic eruptions, and natural coupled ocean-atmosphere processes like El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to name a few.
Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onsetXing Yuan*, Eric F. Wood
The capability of seasonal forecasting of global drought onset at local scales (1-degree) has been investigated using multiple climate models with 110 realizations. Climate models increase the global mean probability of drought onset detection from the climatology forecast by 31%-81%, but only increase equitable threat score by 21%-50% due to a high false alarm ratio. The multi-model ensemble increases the drought detectability over some tropical areas where individual models have better performance, but cannot help more over most extra-tropical regions. On average, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with low potential predictability and weak antecedent ENSO signal. Given the high false alarms, the reliability is very important for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. This raises the question of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset is essentially a stochastic forecasting problem.
Sent by gReader Pro…
Warmists Admit: ‘We can’t say climate change caused the civil war’ in Syria
…How Climate Change Warmed Syria Up for War — Drought allegedly caused by global warming helped create conflict – ‘So this is our mess too. We’re still cranking away at the carbon pump, and no nation is as culpable as the U.S.’
…Warmist Claim: ‘How Climate Change Primed Syria for War’ — ‘Drought devastated the country from 2006 to 2011’
…July 1936, Thousands Dead From The Heat – Mississippi River Almost Dried Up
July 1936, Thousands Dead From The Heat – Mississippi River Almost Dried Up
St. Petersburg Times – Google News Archive Search…
Cold, hard facts about wildfires
Cold, hard facts about wildfires
“Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” Sir John Houghton, First chairman of the IPCC
By Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo, Weatherbell.com
Its a sad world today when not only does one have to offer weather explanations for a tragedy, but then have to counter obvious lies that are going to be told about it ( hence the reason I am not optimistic about our nation, because too many people accept, rather than question, what they hear). So the first thing I am going to do is show you the facts about how far below normal we are with Wildfires this year.
Enlarged
W are close to a million acres below the 10 yr running mean over 15,000 fire less than the 10 year running mean, less fires than any of the last 10 years, and next to last in acres burned. And yet the climatic ambulance chasers are already out trying to push a lie on this matter that was born of the tragedy of 19 people losing their lives in the wildfire we have been hearing about.
The most destructive incident of fire I know of, and one that is somewhat infamous in meteorological terms is the Dresden Firestorm. Basically what was done to Japan with the Atom bomb was done to Dresden with mass bombing that created and inferno in the center of the city, and the heat plume that developed allowed air to rush in from cooler outlying areas and created what was a literal firestorm. Historians writing on this question the motives of the allies, since Dresden was not a military city. While not an expert on this it appears the decision to do this was the modern day parallel to Shermans burning of all of Georgia, not just the military part. It may have been to completely demoralize the population by hitting a city that really, was looked at as some place like Switzerland.. not really something that was contributing to the German war effort. In fact the Germans moved what little defense they had of Dresden to other places.
In any case, the diagram below shows what happened
Enlarged
In the case of the wildfire there are two things to consider. The air is hot and dry, and the heating by the fire itself increasing the instability by making it even hotter. This means that winds …