STUDY: Temperature Data Isn’t Accurate Enough To Find The Cause Of The ‘Hiatus’ In Global Warming

By MICHAEL BASTASCH

New research found there was, in fact, a nearly 15-year “hiatus” in global warming in the early part of the 21st Century, suggesting it could have been caused by natural variability in the atmosphere’s energy balance.

What’s more is climate scientists with Germany’s Max Planck Institute found there’s too much uncertainty in observational data to determine the true cause of the “hiatus” in warming.

Scientists argue that “unless the uncertainty of observational estimates can be considerably reduced, the true origin of the recent hiatus may never be determined.”

“That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force,” veteran meteorologist Anthony Watts wrote of the Max Planck study on his blog Watts Up With That.

Max Planck scientists found hiatuses in global warming can be caused by relatively small changes in ocean energy balance, which can originate from the top of the atmosphere or the ocean.

“This is the true dilemma at the heart of the hiatus debate: the variability in ocean heat content alone has no power to explain the hiatus, and the measure that can—the surface-layer flux divergence—is dwarfed by observational uncertainty,” researchers wrote in their study, led by scientist Christopher Hedemann.

For years, scientists have debated the existence of the “hiatus” in global warming — a period from 1998 to 2012 with little to no statistically significant warming.…

New Paper: N. Hemisphere Temps Rose 4–5°C Within ‘A Few Decades’ 14,700 Years Ago – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates

 Temperatures, Sea Levels ‘Naturally’ Rise

 30 – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates


Modern Temperatures Only Rising 0.05°C/Decade


Since 1850, CO2 concentrations have risen from 285 ppm to 400 ppm.  During these ~165 years, the IPCC has concluded that surface temperatures have warmed by 0.78°C.  This is a warming rate of only 0.05°C per decade for 1850-2012 — which happens to be the same rate of warming over the 1998-2012 period.


IPCC AR5 (2013):     “The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 °C, based on the single longest dataset available 4 (see Figure SPM.1). … [T]he rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 °C per decade).”

Modern Sea Levels Only Rising 0.17 Of A Meter/Century


IPCC AR5 (2013):     “[T]he rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 mm yr between 1901 and 2010

Historical Hemispheric Temperatures Rose 2.0°C/Decade


According to a new paper, the Bølling Warming event 14,700 years ago raised the surface temperature for the entire Northern Hemisphere by 4 to 5°C within a few decades.  This is a hemispheric warming rate of approximately 2.0°C per decade, which is 40 times faster than the 0.05 °C per decade global warming rate since 1850 (and 1998).


Historical Sea Levels Rose 5.3 Meters/Century


Central Greenland’s surface temperatures rose by as much as 12°C during this time frame (14,700 years ago to 14,500 years ago).  Consequently, glaciers and ice sheets disintegrated rapidly and sea levels rose by about 18 meters (“12-22 m”) in 340 years.  An 18 m rise in 340 years is the equivalent of 5.3 meters per century, which is more than 30 times faster than the rate of sea level change (0.17 m per century) between 1901 and 2010.


Ivanovic et al., 2017     “During the Last Glacial Maximum 26–19 thousand years ago (ka), a vast ice sheet stretched over North America [Clark et al., 2009]. In subsequent millennia, as climate warmed and this ice sheet decayed,

Satellite Data: Post El Niño Global Surface Cooling Continues – Pause Extends To 20 Years

Critical German climate site wobleibtdieererwaermung.de (WBDE) reports that the earth’s surface is cooling, and presents the latest chart from NCEP:

As of April 11, the measured global values continue to decline (black curve) as do the computed values for April 18. Source: www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php.

The time-delayed post El Niño cooling is now showing up in the UAH and RSS satellite data.

 Source: UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2017: +0.19 deg. C

Foremost the atmosphere over the ocean – the largest storage of energy on the planet – cooled significantly over the month of March.

Especially remarkable is the 0.29°K drop in temperature above the global oceans measured by the UAH, and is now only 0.09°K above the WMO 1981-2010 climate mean.

The plot shows the anomaly from the 1981- 2010 mean, UAH satellite temperature in the atmosphere 1500 meters over the sea surface. (TLT). The rose colored curve shows the 37-month running mean of the ARGO buoys which measure the water temperature 2.5 meters below the sea surface. Source: www.climate4you.com/

The RSS satellite data also showed a significant drop in global surface temperature above the seas falling from +0.38°K above the mean to 0.18°K above the mean — a drop of 0.20°K.

Chart: Woodfortrees.org

Although there have been some ups and downs over the past months, the overall global surface temperature trend remains steeply downward, dropping more than 0.6°K since early 2016.

Moreover, the surface temperature above the oceans is significant as the oceans cover more than 70 percent of the earth’s surface.

The overall negative linear trend will likely continue over much of 2017 as the delayed effects of the disappeared El Niño work their way into the satellite data.

So is the pause over? WBDE writes:

Despite the warming effect of the powerful 2015/16 El Niño, the unfalsified satellite date show that the year 2016 did not produce any new significant global heat record compared to the 1998 El Niño year. […]

The claimed global warming by the IPCC climate models has been missing for almost 20 years! And that with continuously rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations!”

The question remains: what happens in the years and decade that follow? A new slightly higher plateau, or stuck at the current old plateau?

– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/12/satellite-data-post-el-nino-global-surface-cooling-continues-pause-extends-to-20-years/#sthash.2XPmxaYl.dpuf…

DESPITE NOAA DENIAL, GROWING NUMBER OF NEW STUDIES CONFIRM GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS

  • Date: 08/04/17
  • GWPF

Despite widespread denial among climate activists, a growing number of scientific research papers in recent months have confirmed the global warming hiatus, trying to explain its possible reasons (for the latest studies see here, here and here).  The latest study claims that the Southern Ocean played a critical role in the global warming slowdown.

Image result for GWPF NOAA pause hasn't gone away

Image result for Josh cartoon global warming pause

The post-2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration

Geophysical Research Letters, 27 March 2017

Abstract: The warming rate of global-mean surface temperature slowed down during 1998-2012. Previous studies pointed out role of increasing ocean heat uptake during this global warming slowdown, but its mechanism remains under discussion. Our numerical simulations, in which wind stress anomaly in the equatorial Pacific is imposed from reanalysis data, suggest sub-surface warming in the equatorial Pacific took place during initial phase of the global warming slowdown (1998–2002), as previously reported. It is newly clarified that the Ekman transport from tropics to subtropics is enhanced during the later phase of the slowdown (after 2002) and enhanced subtropical Ekman downwelling causes accelerated heat storage below depth of 700 m in the subtropical Southern Ocean, leading to the post-2002 global warming slowdown. Observational data of ocean temperature also support this scenario. This study provides clear evidence that deeper parts of the Southern Ocean play a critical role in the past-2002 warming slowdown.…

Pause Or Not, Climate Models Continue To Grossly Overstate Global Temperature Trends

What follows is a wrap up of an article written by skeptic climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here.

It writes that for thousands of years it has been the solar and ocean cycles that have been influencing the weather worldwide and in Germany.

And looking at data objectively, it is pretty clear that there is little relationship between weather/climate and the rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, as the global warming pause between 1997-2016 shows:

Linear trend of RSS temperatures. No warming in 224 months despite the current powerful El Niño-event. “The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 8 months since May 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.“ Source: The Pause hangs on by its fingernails.

Naturally climate models continue to grossly overstate the trend for global temperature:

IPCC-Modellprognosen der globalen Temperaturen im Vergleich zu den gemessenen Temperaturen im laufenden Fünfjahresmittel: Die Klimamodelle weisen offensichtlich eine zu hohe Klimasensitivität für den steigenden Anteil des lebenswichtigen CO2-Anteils in der Atmospäre auf

IPCC climate models obviously have assumed an excessively high value for CO2 climate sensitivity. Source: On Natural Climate Variability and Climate Models.

The IPCC climate model projections diverge increasingly from the measured reality, year after year.

In fact new studies have clearly exposed three decisive errors in the programming of climate models:

1. The cooling effect of aerosols has been over-estimated by a factor of 2: Hamburg Max Planck Institute for Meteorology: Aerosols cool less than originally thought.

2. The warming effect of CO2 in in the atmosphere is as a result overestimated by a factor of 2 or three. See: Die kalte Sonne site here (German).

3. The complex effect of fluctuations in solar activity are poorly accounted for in climate models. Solar Forcing of Climate – NIPCC

The consequences: All parameters when used realistically lead to a considerably lower global and regional warming — especially in the future, see following chart:

Vergleiche der Klimamodellprojektionen für die globalen Temperaturen mit der gemessenen Realität

Source: Peer-reviewed pocket-calculator climate model

It’s time to end the hysteria surrounding CO2 and its grossly exaggerated effects on climate and the ridiculous efforts of protecting the climate on every point on the planet every day for 30 years (whose statistical average is the World Meteorological Organization’s definition of climate). Very little can be accomplished trying, and the price would be enormous and ruinous.

– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/08/pause-or-not-climate-models-continue-to-grossly-overstate-global-temperature-trends/#sthash.ozs3j696.dpuf…

Analysis finds NOAA satellite data is incompatible with theory of man-made global warming

Analysis finds NOAA satellite data is incompatible with theory of man-made global warming Previous posts by Dr. Noor van Andel have demonstrated that the theory of anthropogenic global warming [AGW] is falsified by observations over the past 62 years which show outgoing radiation from greenhouse gases has significantly increased, rather than decreased as predicted by the AGW theory.

Source: Analysis finds NOAA satellite data is incompatible with theory of man-made global warming Previous posts by Dr. Noor va…

STUDY: Current Global Warming Is ‘Not Outside The Range Of Natural Variations’

By MICHAEL BASTASCH

A UK-based climate policy group has put out an annual climate assessment “exclusively on observations rather than climate models” to serve as a counterpoint to those put out by the United Nations and government agencies that warn of unabated global warming.

The Global Warming Policy Foundation’s (GWPF) climate assessment, like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), noted 2016 was likely the warmest year on record due to an incredibly strong El Niño warming event that boosted tropical ocean temperatures starting in 2015.

That’s about all the GWPF’s report has in common with the WMO’s assessment for 2016, which warns “the influence of human activities on the climate system has become more and more evident.”

“There is little doubt that we are living in a warm period,” said Ole Humlum, a physical geography professor at the University Centre in Norway and author of the GWPF report.…

30 New (2017) Scientific Papers Crush The Hockey Stick Graph And ‘Global’-Scale Warming Claims

30 New (2017) Scientific Papers Crush The Hockey Stick Graph And ‘Global’-Scale Warming Claims

http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/09/30-new-2017-scientific-papers-crush-the-hockey-stick-graph-and-global-scale-warming-claims/

The Globe Has Not Been Warming . . . So Why Is It Called ‘Global’ Warming? There were at least 60 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in 2016 demonstrating that Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable. As of the end of January, another 17 papers had already been published in 2017. 17 New (2017) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Is Not Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable Within the last month, another 14 papers have been published that continue to cast doubt on the popularized conception of an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times. Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years. Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time. And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years. In other words, there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of natural variability. Goursaud et al., 2017 Wilson et al., 2017 Cai and Liu et al., 2017 “2003– 2009 was the warmest period in the reconstruction. 1970– 2000 was colder than the last stage of the Little Ice Age (LIA).” Tegzes et al., 2017 “The objective of this study was to investigate northward oceanic heat transport in the NwASC [Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current] on longer, geologically meaningful time scales. To this end, we reconstructed variations in the strength of the NwASC over the late-Holocene using the sortable-silt method. We then analysed the statistical relationship between our palaeo-flow reconstructions and published upper-ocean hydrography proxy records from the same location on the mid-Norwegian Margin. Our sortable-silt time series show prominent multi-decadal to multi-centennial variability, but no clear long-term trend over the past 4200 years. … [O]ur findings indicate that variations in the strength of the main branch of the Atlantic Inflow may not necessarily translate into proportional changes in northward oceanic heat transport in the eastern Nordic Seas.” Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017 “The abrupt climatic transition of the early 20th century and the 25-year warm period 1925–1950 triggered the main retreat and volume loss of these glaciers since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Meanwhile, cooling during the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s altered the trend, with advances of the glacier snouts.” …