Analysis: Climate data has been altered for decades to promote ‘global warming’ fears

In 1990, Tom Karl and the IPCC showed that Earth was much warmer 900 years ago, during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP.)

1990 IPCC Report

But by 1995, climate scientists had made the decision to get rid of the inconvenient MWP.

U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

By 2001, Michael Mann and the IPCC followed up on their plans, and eliminated the MWP.

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001

The 1990 IPCC report also had detailed Arctic sea ice satellite data from NOAA, which showed that Arctic sea ice extent was much lower in 1973 than in 1979.

1990 IPCC Report

Government scientists also knew in 1985 that Arctic sea ice extent was much lower in the 1940’s and 1950’s than it was in 1973.

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

The pre-1979 Arctic sea ice data was extremely inconvenient, so NOAA simply made it disappear. They now start their graphs right at the peak year in 1979. I have been trying to obtain the pre-1979 IPCC satellite data from NOAA for over six months, and they have been “unable to locate it.”

ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2016.pdf

In the 1950’s scientists were well aware that the “thin crust” of Arctic sea ice was disappearing, and predicted an ice-free Arctic within a generation.

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

Scientists were also aware that by 1970 Arctic sea ice was getting much thicker and more extensive.

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

This prior warmth and subsequent cooling in the Arctic was inconvenient, so NOAA and NASA made it disappear.

Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

In 1985 Phil Jones At CRU showed a large global warming spike around 1940, followed by about 0.5C cooling.

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

The 1940’s spike was inconvenient for Phil Jones and the rest of his cohorts, so they discussed how to get rid of it.

di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt

And that they did. They have completely eliminated the 1940’s blip and subsequent cooling. It no longer exists in the temperature record.

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4.png

NASA has also removed the inconvenient 1940’s warmth and subsequent cooling, just as scientists discussed doing.

1981 version2017 version

In

100 sailors trapped in ice — in icebreaker — near Arctic outpost

The historic convoy to Pevek did not have a lucky outcome. Three vessels, among them an icebreaker, might not get loose before spring.
February 07, 2017

They were carrying construction materials for the new local port, built to facilitate the installation of Russia’s first floating nuclear power plant. It was a historic voyage. Never before have icebreakers escorted cargo vessels from the western part of the Arctic to Pevek, the town by the East Siberian Sea, in mid-winter.

Conditions underway were tough. The convoy soon needed assistance from a second and more powerful icebreaker, the «Admiral Makarov», which came to support from its base in Vladivostok.

The convoy, which included cargo carriers «Iogann Makhmastal» and «Sinegorsk» and diesel-engined icebreaker «Kapital Dranitsyn», arrived in Pevek on 7th February. They were due to depart few days later. That did not happen.

Seeing Red—New NASA Climate Change Video Uses Questionable ‘Data’ for Colorful Deception

A visitor to Cornwall Alliance’s Facebook page recently asked our thoughts on a new video from NASA purporting to demonstrate that global warming is happening rapidly and that there’s been no slow-down, let alone “pause,” in the last two decades. Among other media, Huffington Post featured the video in an article titled “NASA Climate Change Video Shows Just How Quickly the Earth Is Warming.”

As is typical, the video uses frightening graphics to communicate numbers that are far less than frightening:

Of course, we’re all accustomed to seeing redness on severe burns and on hot stove burners and oven heating elements. Red means hot-hot-hot! Little does the typical viewer recognize that the entire increase in global average temperature over the period from 1880 to the present is estimated at roughly 1C—a small fraction of the typical difference between low and high readings on a single day in most locations, and a much smaller fraction of the typical difference between winter low and summer high in most locations. Consider what happens to the psychological effect if the picture is rendered in grayscale instead of the shocking reds and yellows:

There’s a lesson in how graphics can be used for psychological manipulation.

The video of course only pictures the numbers fed into it, and the “adjustments” being made over the last three years or more by both NOAA and NASA to their surface temperature “data” are highly suspect because the criteria by which they’re made, the computer codes that apply the criteria, and the whole path of the adjustment process have not been made public and thus aren’t testable/replicable by other scientists. Replicability is the hallmark of sound scientific research. The actual outcome of the adjustments is clear, though: “temperatures” in the early overall period are pushed downward, and “temperatures” in the later part are pushed upward.…

Analysis: US biologist’s defense of flawed polar bear predictions is an embarrassment to science

US biologist’s defense of flawed polar bear predictions is an embarrassment to science

http://polarbearscience.com/2017/01/30/us-biologists-defense-of-flawed-polar-bear-predictions-is-an-embarrassment-to-science

A few days ago in a radio interview, a senior US Fish & Wildlife biologist repeated the tall tale that Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear numbers declined in recent years due to loss of summer sea ice. But restating this egregious misinformation does not make it true. The Southern Beaufort population did decline between 2001 and 2006 but it was due to natural causes (thick ice in spring from 2004 to 2006) – it had nothing to do with recent summer sea ice loss and Eric Regehr knows it. There is no evidence that the population decline continued after 2006, so it cannot be said to be still declining. Moreover, the situation in the Southern Beaufort does not support the predictions made by Regehr and his colleagues that polar bear populations will decline precipitously if summer sea ice declines further. My recently published paper demolishes the message of doom for polar bears and the misinformation it’s based upon: it’s free and written in straight-forward scientific language. Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/ (pdf here). Here’s an excerpt of the nonsense broadcasted on KNOM Radio Alaska by Regehr and transcribed for their website (29 January 2017) [my bold]: “If there’s a poster child for Arctic animals affected by climate change, it’s the polar bear. … “Putting together all available data, and making some informed projections on the basis of those data, do suggest that there is a high probability that the global population of polar bears could face reductions of up to one-third or greater in the next 35 to 40 years,” said Regehr. One group that’s thriving is the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, which includes Western Alaska and the Russian coast across the water. “The waters are shallow, they’re nutrient rich; there are a lot of seals, ringed seals and bearded seals, out there for the polar bears to eat,” said Regehr. “And so, other studies suggest that, despite the fact that the Chukchi Sea region has exhibited a loss of Arctic sea ice the bears in that region appear to be faring quite well, currently.” But their neighbors to the East, the South …

Russian icebreakers stuck in ‘very heavy severe ice conditions’ in Arctic

Date: 27/01/17

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/01/26/arctic-ice-takes-revenge/

The saga shows that despite all the talk of climate change and warming in the Arctic, thick ice can prevent convoys from crossing the Northern Sea Route in deep winter.

Vessels Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov ‘marooned’ in east for the rest of winter after getting trapped off Chukotka.

Russian Convoy Takes Advantage of Reduced Arctic Ice Extent

In the first such crossing since Soviet times, the convoy had earlier delivered supplies for the world’s first floating heat and power plant to be assembled in Chukotka, Russia’s most easternmost region, after a successful journey from Arkhangelsk to Pevek lasting from 14 December to 7 January.

The ease of the sailing was seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shipping lanes even in midwinter.  From the Siberian Times, Blow to Northern Sea Route as voyages of two icebreakers are… broken by ice

Reports of Arctic Ice Demise Prove Premature

But, despite significant temperature rises across the northern latitudes in recent years, the vessels became quickly stuck in thick, compressed ice on their return journey.

Initially there were hopes that the icebreakers could force their way out and continue their voyage within a week, and aerial reconnaissance was deployed in a search routes from the ice clog.

They are currently trapped by sudden thick ice around Chukotka’s northernmost cape Shelagsky, some 24 nautical miles from Pevek, in some of Russia’s most exposed waters.

Ruslan Nazarov, chief of Chukotka’s emergencies service, said: ‘The ice around Cape Shelagsky is at 10 points. The ice fields are more than one metre thick. The ice compression is strong and hummocks are higher than 2.5 metres.

Embarrassing But Not Life-threatening

The situation is not critical, Nazarov said, stressing that the regional ministry of emergencies and Chukotka government keep a close eye on it. ‘All the ships have enough fuel, food and all other necessities.’

A spokesman for Rosmorport has announced the icebreakers will delay a return until probably May or early June. ‘The vessels will remain for the winter because of the very heavy severe ice conditions,’ he said.

All the vessel got out of the ice, and three of them – Captain Dranitsyn and the two cargo ships – returned to Pevek. The Admiral Makarov moved further east to continue working for Rosmorport in clearing sea routes.

Officials said the icebreakers could

Arctic Sea Ice Grows Back To 2006 Levels

Sea ice charts for 18 January from NSIDC Masie show exactly as much sea ice in 2017 as there was back in 2006 – 13.4 million km^2.

Masie image below from 2006 (enlarged and cropped from archived version and label re-inserted) shows the distribution of ice was slightly different than this year (less in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait/Labrador Sea, more in the Barents and Bering Seas):

Considering only Canada (where 2/3 of the world’s polar bears live), Canadian Ice Service comparative graphs going back to 1971 show average amounts of ice existed the week of 15 January 2017, but considerably more than the estimates for the 1970s (odd that we never hear about that):

NASA Climate Chief: ‘Russia actually thinks that warming the Arctic is going to be good’

 

Speaking on the geopolitics of geoengineering the Earth’s climate, NASA Climate Chief Gavin Schmidt says, “Russia actually thinks that warming the Arctic is going to be good for it.”

NASA GISS DIRECTOR GAVIN SCHMIDT: “And, so you’re left with countries that have slightly looser environmental regulations. Say, Russia.  Now Russia doesn’t want to do it because Russia actually thinks that warming the Arctic is going to be good for it. So, they’re not going to do it.”

University of Southampton

Global Challenges – Dr. Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS

January 12, 2017…

Polar bear conservation group blasts Obama for climate alarmism: ‘Sensationalized nonsense’

– The Washington Times – Monday, January 9, 2017

The Obama administration warned Monday that polar bears may disappear unless something is done about climate change, despite recent research indicating that the bears are actually thriving.

In its final Conservation Management Plan, the Fish and Wildlife Service painted a grim picture for the future of the massive Arctic-dwelling mammal, warning that its fate will be determined “by our willingness and ability to address climate change.”

“The current global polar bear population is estimated to be 26,000,” said the FWS press release. “If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the current rates throughout the 21st century, polar bears will likely disappear from much of their present-day range.”

The announcement prompted pushback from zoologist Susan J. Crockford, founder of the Polar Bear Science website, who blasted the service for igniting a rash of “sensationalized nonsense” by fueling alarmist media reports.

Since 2007, “summer sea ice coverage has declined to levels their sea ice colleagues said would not occur until 2050 yet 2/3 of the world’s polar bears did not disappear as [U.S. Geological Service] biologists predicted,” Ms. Crockford said in a post.

The polar bear was listed as threatened in 2008 as a result of declining Arctic sea ice, but its population has proved remarkably resilient, although the Fish and Wildlife Service plan doesn’t mention that, she said.

“They also don’t tell folks that the recent decline in population size recorded for the Southern Beaufort Sea was caused by thick spring sea ice in 2004-2006, not reduced summer sea ice,” said Ms. Crockford, an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria in British Columbia.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature pegs the polar bear population at between 22,000 and 31,000, which she called “the highest estimate in 50 years.”

Recent studies have shown increases in some of the 19 Arctic polar-bear populations. In 2013, the FWS reported the Chukchi Sea population in Alaska was doing “quite well,” while the Norwegian Polar Institute found in 2015 that the Barents Sea polar bears had risen by 42 percent since 2004.

Meanwhile, wildlife groups criticized the federal plan for failing to mandate large-scale U.S. reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions in order to combat climate change.

“Polar bears are starving and drowning as their sea ice melts away, but this toothless plan shrugs off the one solution that will