15 New 2017 Papers: Scientists Abandoning Claims Of Dominant Man-Made Influence On Arctic Climate

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Natural Forcing Of Arctic Climate

 Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists

Gajewski, 2015

Three years ago a cogent paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature that was surprisingly candid in its rejection of the position that the substantial warming and sea ice reduction in the Arctic occurring since the late 1970s should be predominantly attributed to anthropogenic forcing.

Dr. Quinhua Ding and 6 co-authors indicated in their paper that internal processes — natural variability associated with planetary waves and the North Atlantic Oscillation — are drivers of the recent Arctic warming and sea ice reduction, concluding that “a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”


Ding et al., 2014

Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks.  We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation.”  
Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth’s rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warmingThis suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”

Since 2014, there have been several more scientific papers that have been published documenting the significance of natural forcing processes in the Arctic and how they may override a clear detection of an anthropogenic influence.

But 2017 already seems to be an exception.  Papers that document the dominance of natural forcing —

TILLERSON SAYS US WON’T BE RUSHED ON CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ARCTIC_COUNCIL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-05-11-21-45-51

FAIRBANKS, Alaska (AP) — Arctic nations have renewed calls for the world to address climate warming, but U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says the United States will not rush to make a decision on its policies.

Tillerson spoke Thursday in Fairbanks, Alaska, at a meeting of the Arctic Council, an advisory group made up of the eight Arctic nations and indigenous groups.

The council adopted a nine-page “Fairbanks Declaration 2017,” which noted that the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average. The document noted the importance of reducing soot and methane emissions and said climate change is the most serious threat to Arctic biodiversity.

Tillerson signed the document. But in opening remarks, he cautioned that the United States is reviewing several important policies, including how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change.

“We are appreciative that each of you has an important point of view, and you should know that we are taking the time to understand your concerns,” Tillerson told other representatives on the council. “We’re not going to rush to make a decision. We’re going to work to make the right decision for the United States.”

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    FAIRBANKS, Alaska (AP) — Arctic nations have renewed calls for the world to address climate warming, but U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says the United …

    A Trump climate betrayal?! US signs international declaration on climate change despite Trump’s past statements

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-signs-international-declaration-climate-change-despite-trumps-004206189–abc-news-topstories.html

    CONOR FINNEGAN

    US signs international declaration on climate change despite Trump’s past statements

    President Trump has talked tough in the past about his skeptical views on climate change, his administration appears to be taking a more cautious approach to the issue on the world stage in the early days of his presidency.

    Rex Tillerson signed a document today calling climate change a “serious threat” to the Arctic and noting the need for action to reduce its potentially harmful effects.

    The document, known as the Fairbanks Declaration, concluded Tillerson’s chairing of a meeting of the Arctic Council, a board made up of indigenous groups and the eight countries bordering the Arctic, in Fairbanks, Alaska.

    While the council only has the power to issue advisories, the language in the statement signed by Tillerson comes in stark contrast to statements and promises made by President Trump about climate change.

    Trump has repeatedly called into question the science behind climate change, even calling it a “very expensive hoax.” During his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to pull out of the Paris accord and his administration has ordered cuts to funding for climate science and has slashed environmental regulations.

    While Tillerson endorsed the Arctic Council document, he cautioned that the U.S. would not be rushed into formulating its policy.

    “We’re not going to rush to make a decision. We’re going to work to make the right decision for the United States,” he said.

    The Trump administration has not come out with a decision on whether the U.S. will pull out of the Paris Climate accord signed under President Obama. That non-binding international agreement went into effect last year and calls for countries to set goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    The Fairbanks proclamation says that “the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, resulting in

    Data Analyses Show Rapid Global Surface Cooling, Growing Arctic Ice Thickness

    Analyses show that global temperatures continue their rapid cooling trend, as Schneefan here writes. What follows are excerpts of his recent comprehensive analysis.

    The cooling comes naturally in the wake of the moderate La Nina conditions that have ruled over the past months.

    In April surface temperatures 2 meters above the ground plummeted as the following NCEP chart shows:

    Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php

    Global satellite temperature anomaly from the mean measured by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) rebounded a bit after a large March drop.

    Source: UAH Global Temperature +0.27 deg. C.

    Foremost the atmosphere above the oceans cooled the most during March, 2017. This is clearly depicted by the UAH: an anomaly of +0.29°K to +0.09°K compared to the WMO 1981-2010 mean.

    Plot UAH satellite temperatures von UAH in the atmosphere 1500 m altitude (TLT) over the oceans. Note the rose colored curve shows the ARGO ocean buoys’ mean of the sea temperature to a depth of 2.5 m, with 37-month smoothing. Source: www.climate4you.com/, sea surface temperature estimates: UAH.

    Global RSS satellite data show a rapid cooling since early 2016:

    Moreover despite the powerful warming El Niño event of 2015/16, the unfalsified satellite data in 2016 show that no new significant global heat record was seen when compared to the El Niño year of 1998. We are talking about hundredths of a degree, completely within the boundaries of uncertainty.

    No significant warming in 20 years

    The powerful linear global cooling continued in April 2017 and will continue for the time being, Schneefan writes.

    What does that mean for the global warming? Schneefan adds:

    The IPCC global warming claimed by the climate models has been missing for almost 20 years. And that despite the constantly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations!”

    And just days ago, Kenneth Richards here showed that there hasn’t been any warming over the entire southern hemisphere at all. The warming of the past decades is not even global.

    What is now becoming glaringly obvious is that the IPCC has wildly overestimated its projected global warming for the future. When the IPCC models from the various IPCC reports are compared to the observations, the result gets vividly illustrated by the following chart showing the satellite observed temperatures from January 2001 to June 2016:

    The Speedometer for the 15 years 4 months January 2001 to April 2016 shows the [1.1, 4.2] C°/century-equivalent range of global warming rates (red/orange) that IPCC’s 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports predicted should be happening by now, against real-world warming (green) equivalent to <0.5 C°/century over the period, taken as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite global lower-troposphere temperature datasets. Quelle: http://joannenova.com.au/2016/05/monckton-ipcc-climate-models-speeding-out-of-control-compared-to-real-world/

    The Global Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed warming on

    Another Arctic ice panic ends as world temperatures plummet

    • Date: 07/05/17
    • Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph

    Inevitably, when even satellite temperatures were showing 2016 as “the hottest year on record”, we were going to be told last winter that the Arctic ice was at its lowest extent ever. Sure enough, before Christmas, a report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was greeted with such headlines as “Hottest Arctic on record triggers massive ice melt”. In March we had the BBC trumpeting another study that blamed vanishing Arctic ice as the cause of weather which led to the worst-ever smog in Beijing, warning that it “could even threaten the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022”.

    But last week we were brought back to earth by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), as charted by our friend Paul Homewood on his blog Notalotofpeopleknowthat, with the news that ever since December temperatures in the Arctic have consistently been lower than minus 20 C. In April the extent of Arctic sea ice was back to where it was in April 13 years ago. Furthermore, whereas in 2008 most of the ice was extremely thin, this year most has been at least two metres thick. The Greenland ice cap last winter increased in volume faster than at any time for years.

    As for those record temperatures brought in 2016 by an exceptionally strong El Niño, the satellites now show that in recent months global temperatures have plummeted by more that 0.6 degrees: just as happened 17 years ago after a similarly strong El Niño had also made 1998 the “hottest year on record”.

    This means the global temperature trend has now shown no further warming for 19 years. But the BBC won’t be telling us any of this. And we are still stuck with that insanely damaging Climate Change Act, which in this election will scarcely get a mention.

    Full post

    No NY Times, Arctic ice is not ‘vanishing’

    Via: http://junkscience.com/2017/05/no-nytimes-arctic-ice-is-not-vanishing/

    Here’s the fake news headline:

    Here’s the reality:

    According to NOAA, Northern Hemisphere sea ice has declined somewhat since 1980, but it certainly is not “vanishing”:

    And when you consider that NOAA has a pre-1980 sea ice record, you might reasonably wonder what all the fuss us about.

    That’s why the NYTimes is called “fake news.”

    #

    Related Links: 

    MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen: Believing CO2 controls the climate ‘is pretty close to believing in magic’

    Lindzen on Arctic sea ice:

    Satellites have been observing arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice since 1979. Every year there is a pronounced annual cycle where the almost complete winter coverage is much reduced each summer. During this period there has been a noticeable downtrend is summer ice in the arctic (with the opposite behavior in the Antarctic), though in recent years, the coverage appears to have stabilized. In terms of climate change, 40 years is, of course, a rather short interval. Still, there have been the inevitable attempts to extrapolate short period trends leading to claims that the arctic should have already reached ice free conditions. Extrapolating short term trends is obviously inappropriate. Extrapolating surface temperature changes from dawn to dusk would lead to a boiling climate in days. This would be silly. The extrapolation of arctic summer ice coverage looks like it might be comparably silly. Moreover, although the satellite coverage is immensely better than what was previously available, the data is far from perfect. The satellites can confuse ice topped with melt water with ice free regions. In addition, temperature might not be the main cause of reduced sea ice coverage. Summer ice tends to be fragile, and changing winds play an important role in blowing ice out of the arctic sea. Associating changing summer sea ice coverage with climate change is, itself, dubious. Existing climate models hardly unambiguously predict the observed behavior. Predictions for 2100 range from no change to complete disappearance. Thus, it cannot be said that the sea ice behavior confirms any plausible prediction.

    It is sometimes noted that concerns for disappearing arctic sea ice were issued in 1922, suggesting that such behavior is not unique to the present. The data used, at that time, came from the neighborhood of Spitzbergen. A marine biologist and climate campaigner has argued that what was described was a local phenomenon, but, despite the claim, the evidence presented

    Trapped In Thick Arctic Ice, Canadian Fishermen Call For Compensation

    Heavy ice is making it impossible for fishermen from the Twillingate area to get to their crab fishing grounds. Heavy ice is making it impossible for fishermen from the Twillingate area to get to their crab fishing grounds. (Twitter/@jeddore1972) At least six Twillingate fish harvesters are being kept from the crab fishery by miles of ice that have build up just outside their harbour.

    Source: Trapped In Thick Arctic Ice, Canadian Fishermen Call For Compensation

    ‘Catastrophe Fails to Materialize’: Global polar bear population size INCREASES

    Via: https://polarbearscience.com/2017/04/12/global-polar-bear-population-size-is-about-28500-when-updates-are-included/

    Polar bear numbers have risen since 2005, no matter how you look at it:

    Svalbard polar bear Jon Aars_Norsk Polarinstitutt

    USGS estimated 24,500 (average) polar bears in 2005.

    IUCN estimated 26,500 (average of 22,000-31,000) in 2015
    (assessment completed in July, released in November).

    Subpopulation surveys completed or reported after July 2015 (Baffin Bay, Kane Basin, Barents Sea) added ~2,000 bears.…

    Alarming Arctic heat waves look a lot like the last alarming heat waves in 1940s

    Alarming Arctic heat waves look a lot like the last alarming heat waves in 1940s

    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/04/alarming-arctic-heat-waves-look-a-lot-like-the-last-alarming-heat-waves-in-1940s/

    The Arctic is the most sensitive place to man-made emissions on Earth, which is why it has barely warmed since 1944? Well, it makes sense if CO2 is largely irrelevant. Humans have made 90% of all their CO2 in the last 70 years and nothing much happened in the place where it was supposed to hurt the most. The WMO apparently missed the first 30 years of data. But Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt are here to help them out. : -) “Heat waves in the Arctic – climate scientists sound the alarm“ Area weighted Arctic (70-90N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) since 1920 in relation to the WMO normal period 1961-1990. Fig. 2: Arctic temperature since 1920. Data: HadCRUT4, Chart: Climate4You. These heat waves look a lot like the last heat waves. Read it all thanks to Pierre Gosselins translation: Learning from the climate’s history: the Arctic heat waves of the 1930s and 40s Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)

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