Despite a 20 percent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary, sea ice in the Antarctic has expanded for decades. Such observations are in direct opposition to the model-based predictions of the IPCC. This should give pause for thought about climate alarmism in general.
While there have been thousands of legacy media stories about the very real decline in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, we can’t find one about the statistically significant increase in Antarctic sea ice that has been observed at the same time.
Also, comparisons between forecast temperature trends down there and what’s been observed are very few and far between. Here’s one published in 2015:
Observed (blue) and model-forecast (red) Antarctic sea-ice extent published by Shu et al. (2015) shows a large and growing discrepancy, but for unknown reasons, their illustration ends in 2005.
For those who utilize and trust in the scientific method, forming policy (especially multi-trillion dollar policies!) on the basis of what could or might happen in the future seems imprudent.
Sound policy, in contrast, is best formulated when it is based upon repeated and verifiable observations that are consistent with the projections of climate models. As shown above, this does not appear to be the case with the vast ice field that surrounds Antarctica.
According to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CO2-induced global warming will result in a considerable reduction in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Specifically, the report predicts a multi-model average decrease of between 16 and 67 percent in the summer and 8 to 30 percent in the winter by the end of the century (IPCC, 2013).
Given the fact that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by 20 percent over the past four decades, evidence of sea ice decline should be evident in the observational data if such model predictions are correct. But are they?
Thanks to a recent paper in the Journal of Climate by Josefino Comiso and colleagues, we now know what’s driving the increase in sea-ice down there. It’s — wait for it — cooling temperatures over the ocean surrounding Antarctica.
This team of six researchers set out to produce an updated and enhanced dataset of sea ice extent and area for the Southern Hemisphere
Like the nag of a dripping faucet, the liberal news media spent years warning about melting glaciers and ice caps because of global warming. Media outlets predicted an “ice-free” Arctic time and again, and so far have been wrong. But with all the panic about melting glaciers, or sea ice, or ice at the poles the media have reported, one would imagine good news about increasing ice would at least get some attention. Not from the broadcast networks anyway. In the past year, they’ve ignored data showing increasing ice in Antarctica, presumably because it did not fit perfectly with their climate agenda, instead choosing to hype melting Arctic ice repeatedly. Between October 2014 and November 2015, NASA released two separate studies, both showing that ice in Antarctica is growing faster than it is melting. In May 2015, Antarctic ice was at a record high level. Yet between Nov. 4, 2014 and Nov. 11, 2015, the broadcast network’s evening news shows never mentioned either study. During that same time however, the broadcast network’s evening news shows specifically mentioned melting ice in the Arctic 12 different times. All of those were on CBS Evening News and NBC Nightly News. But additional stories on all three evening shows implied that melting was occurring in polar regions because of global warming or climate change. – See more at: http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/alatheia-larsen/2015/11/12/antarctic-ice-growing-even-hit-record-evening-news-shows#sthash.8VM2OduB.dpuf…
July 25 2014 – Global Sea Ice Highest On This Day For Last 10 Years
Warmists now trying to erase record Antarctica sea ice growth! Say ice growth due to data ‘processing’ error – Climatologist Rebuts Claims – Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels: ‘The change since the turn of the century is about 1.3 million square kilometers, a mountain of ice The step change is about 200,000, a molehill. That doesn’t sound like “much” to us.’ – The paradigm, in this case, is that our climate models are always right and any counterfactuals are because something is wrong with the data, rather than with the predictions. “Resistance” means that peer-reviewers aren’t likely to find much wrong with papers that support the paradigm (and that they will find a lot wrong with ones that don’t). Further, the editors of scientific journals will behave the same, curiously avoiding obvious questions.
1933 ‘Consensus’: North Pole to melt, raise sea level 150 feet – ‘What Will Happen? ‘When The North Pole Melts, Oceans Will Rise 150 Feet’ – ‘Scientists’ Predictions’ – September 16, 1933
New paper finds Arctic sea ice is controlled by natural cycles – Published in Geophysical Research Letters — Study ‘finds Arctic sea ice extent is determined primarily by the natural ~60-90 year cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], not greenhouse gases. According to the authors, “Arctic sea ice is intrinsically linked to Atlantic multidecadal [natural] variability” finding a ~60-90 year cycle of “Covariability between sea ice and Atlantic multidecadal variability as represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is evident during the instrumental record.”
1887 article: Arctic seas were open for sailing during the Medieval Warm Period in 1122 A.D. — ‘VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE.’ Press, Volume XLIV, Issue 6903, 8 November 1887, Page 6: ‘Calculations for the year 1122 A.D…find the Danes and several Scandinavian nations going through the Arctic open seas.’
Satellite data shows Arctic sea ice coverage up 50% from 2012: ‘There’ll likely be more multi-year ice next year than there was this year’ — ‘BBC News reports that data from Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft shows that Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 9,000 cubic kilometers (2,100 cubic miles) by the end of this year’s melting season, up from about 6,000 cubic kilometers (1,400 cubic miles) during the same time last year.’
2013: ‘On the 5 year anniversary of his prediction on December 14th, 2008, the Arctic sea ice is within a standard deviation of the “normal” line, and global sea ice is actually above normal’ – ‘With such a track record, one wonders why anyone but the “galactically stupid” would listen to Gore, the great bloviator, on climate any more.’
James Lovelock was right about Gore, this from Climate Depot: Alert: ‘Gaia’ scientist James Lovelock reverses himself: I was ‘alarmist’ about climate change & so was Gore! ‘The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we …
400 PPM CO2 Update! ‘Coldest summer on record at North Pole — Highest Aug. Arctic ice extent since 2006 — Record high Aug. Antarctic ice extent — No major hurricane strikes for 8 years — Slowest tornado season on record — No global warming for 17 years – 2nd slowest fire season on record’
- Coldest summer on record at the North Pole
- Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006
- Record high August Antarctic ice extent
- No major hurricane strikes (Cat 3 or larger) for eight years
- Slowest tornado season on record
- No global warming for 17 years
- Second slowest fire season on record
- Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008