Paper finds lifetime of CO2 in atmosphere is only 5.4 years — Paper presented at the SEVENTEENTH SYMPOSIUM ON THERMOPHYSICAL PROPERTIES
Paper finds lifetime of CO2 in atmosphere is only 5.4 years
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/paper-finds-lifetime-of-co2-in.html
A paper presented at the SEVENTEENTH SYMPOSIUM ON THERMOPHYSICAL PROPERTIES finds that the lifetime and residence time of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere is only about 5.4 years, far less than assumed by the IPCC. The paper corroborates prior work by Salby, Humlum et al, Frölicher et al, Cho et al, Calder et al, Francey etl, Ahlbeck, Pettersson, Segalstad, and others which has demonstrated that man-made CO2 is not the primary driver of atmospheric CO2.Fossil Fuel Emissions and Fossil CO2 in the Atmosphere
Luciano Lepori S, Gian Carlo Bussolino, Andrea Spanedda and Enrico Matteoli C
IPCF-CNR, Pisa, Italy
The comparison of fossil fuel emissions (6.4 GtC/yr) with the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 (3.2 GtC/yr) suggests that about half of the anthropogenic CO2 has not remained in the atmosphere: it has dissolved in the ocean or has been taken up by the land. The isotope ratio C13/C12 of atmospheric CO2 has been measured over the last decades using mass spectrometry. From these data the fraction of fossil CO2 in atmospheric CO2 is straightforwardly calculated: 5.9 %(1981) and 8.5 %(2002). These results indicate that the amount of past fossil fuel and biogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere, though increasing with anthropogenic emissions, did not exceed in 2002 66 GtC, corresponding to a concentration of 31 ppm, that is 3 times less than the CO2 increase (88 ppm, 24 %) which occurred in the last century. This low concentration (31 ppm) of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere is consistent with a lifetime of t(1/2) = 5.4 years, that is the most reliable value among other in the range 2-13 years, obtained with different measurements and methods. Contrary to the above findings on the concentration of fossil CO2 and its residence time in the atmosphere, in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change it is stated that almost 45 % of anthropogenic emissions, corresponding to 88 ppm or 24 % of the total CO2, have remained in the atmosphere with a mean lifetime of t(1/2) = 30.5 years. On these assumptions are based both the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming and the climate models.
Related: New paper finds ocean along Baja California coast is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere
H/T to The Stockholm Initiative site for finding this abstract [Google translation from Swedish]:
David …
The Gentler Climate Of 300 PPM CO2 in 1898
…New paper finds NH ice ages explained even with constant levels of CO2: ‘A paper published in Nature finds that ice ages in the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by Milankovitch cycles and the unique geography of the North American ice sheet’
New paper finds NH ice ages explained even with constant levels of CO2
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/new-paper-finds-nh-ice-ages-explained.html
A paper published today in Nature finds that ice ages in the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by Milankovitch cycles and the unique geography of the North American ice sheet, finding, “the crucial mechanism for the 100,000 year cycles is the delayed glacial isostatic rebound which keeps the ice elevation low, and, therefore, the ice ablation high, while the ice sheet retreats.” The authors are able to reproduce the saw-tooth pattern of ice ages using a model that assumes a constant level of atmospheric CO2. The prior ‘consensus’ was that Milankovitch cycles and CO2 were the primary drivers of ice age cycles, but this paper finds CO2 played a minor role, stating, “Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.” Still unexplained, however, is that ice ages were approximately synchronous between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, even though by Milankovitch theory an increase in solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere is offset by an equal decrease of solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere.
Excerpts:
The 100-kyr periodicity, the sawtooth pattern and the timing of the terminations are reproduced with constant CO2 levels 20,24 (for example 220 p.p.m.; Fig. 1e), and are robust for a range of model parameters (Supplementary Fig. 4).
By contrast, the spectral peak of ,100-kyr cycles is greatly reduced, and permanent large ice sheets remain, with the imposition of instantaneous isostatic rebound (Fig. 1f). This result supports the idea that the crucial mechanism for the 100-kyr cycles is the delayed glacial isostatic rebound 14,15, which keeps the ice elevation low, and, therefore, the ice ablation high, while the ice sheet retreats. We note, however, that CO2 variations can result in amplification of the full magnitude of ice-volume changes during the 100-kyr cycles, but do not drive the cycles. Ice-sheet changes may induce variations in CO2 through changing sea surface temperature, affecting the solubility of CO2 (ref. 25), and through changing sea level, affecting the stratification of and CO2 storage in the Southern Ocean18. During deglaciation, the melt water may affect ocean circulation, leading to an increase in atmospheric CO2 (refs 23, 26, 27).
A remarkable conclusion from our model results is therefore that the 100,000 year glacial cycle exists only because of the unique geographic and climatological setting of the North American ice sheet with …
80% Of August Major Hurricanes Strikes Occurred With CO2 Below 350 PPM: ‘The US has been hit by thirty major hurricanes during the month of August since 1850. Eighty percent of these occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM, and two-thirds of them occurred before JFK was president’
80% Of August Major Hurricanes Strikes Occurred With CO2 Below 350 PPM
The US has been hit by thirty major hurricanes during the month of August since 1850. Eighty percent of these occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM, and two-thirds of them occurred before JFK was president. The two category 5 August hurricanes were Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992. The Montreal Gazette – Google News […]…
New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is 73% less than claimed by IPCC
New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is 73% less than claimed by IPCC
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/new-paper-finds-climate-sensitivity-to.html
A new peer-reviewed paper published in Gondwana Research finds from paleoclimate proxies that climate sensitivity is only 0.8°C for a doubling of CO2 concentration from 280 to 560 ppm, 73% less than claimed by the IPCC. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed papers finding the IPCC estimates of CO2 climate sensitivity are greatly exaggerated.
The paper is summarized by the Swedish climate site The Stockholm Initiative [Google translation from Swedish + light editing]:
Climate sensitivity 0.8 ° C for a doubling of CO2
07/18/2013 by Ingemar Nordin .
Guest Post from Larry Huldén :
Summary: In a new review article in July by Gregory Retallack presents for the first time empirical paleoproxy results for mean temperature change at a doubling of CO2 concentration from 280 to 560 ppm. Climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 concentration was 0.8 ° C, which is significantly lower than previous estimates.
No cost, but the abstract is available. I reproduce here some key elements and conclusions of the article, which is available electronically to employees at the University of Helsinki.
The methodology is based on 19 carefully dated and analyzed the CO2 peaks at the transition between Perm and Triassic (300-200 one million years before present) from 51 non-marine lime and kolavlagragingar from around the world. It has been compared klyvöppningsindexet in leaves of the ancient ginkgo tree in two different ways. Partly by experiments under greenhouse conditions and partly with herbarie-specimens from various post-industrial times with known CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The index is low at high CO2 concentration and high at low CO2 content. Fossil Ginkgo is also known from the Late Triassic and klyvöppningsindexet can be used as a reference to jump to Perm. Fröormbunken Lepidopteris were both during Perm and Trias and it had a similar profile in klyvöppningsindex with Ginkgo during late Trias. Analogous to Ginkgo has klyvöppningsindexet in fossil Lepidopteris leaf from Perm early Triassic calculated from different deposits of varying CO2 concentration.
Temperature Variations during Perm-Trias was calculated in different ways depending on the latitude. I will not go into the methods here, but notes that such Utah New Mexico showed annual average temperatures between 24 and 37 ° C. CO2 concentration in the Perm early Trias has varied between 1000 and 7800 ppm, and in the late Triassic between …
New paper finds climate change over decades primarily determined by the oceans — Published in journal Nature
New paper finds climate change over decades primarily determined by the oceans
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-finds-climate-change-over.html
A new paper published in Nature finds climate change over timescales longer than 10 years is “primarily determined by the ocean,” which skeptics, including famed Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science Dr. William Gray, have been saying for years. According to the paper, “the ocean significantly affects long term climate fluctuations, while the seemingly chaotic atmosphere is mainly responsible for the shorter-term, year-to-year changes.”
According to the authors, “Our findings suggest that the predictability of mid-latitude North Atlantic air–sea interaction could extend beyond the ocean to the climate of surrounding continents,” corroborating the many papers which have demonstrated that ocean oscillations control land-based climate as well.
North Atlantic region, dark blue area was used for temperature data, red area for the heat flux. (Credit: C. Kersten, GEOMAR)
Deciphering the Air-Sea Communication: Ocean Significantly Affects Long-Term Climate FluctuationsJuly 25, 2013 — Why does hurricane activity vary from decade to decade? Or rainfall in the Sahel region? And why are the trans-Atlantic changes frequently in sync? A German-Russian research team has investigated the role of heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere in long-term climate variability in the Atlantic. The scientists analyzed meteorological measurements and sea surface temperatures over the past 130 years. It was found that the ocean significantly affects long term climate fluctuations, while the seemingly chaotic atmosphere is mainly responsible for the shorter-term, year-to-year changes.
The study appears in the current issue of the journal Nature, and provides important information on the predictability of long-term climate fluctuations.How do the ocean and atmosphere communicate? What information do they exchange, and what are the results? These are questions that climate scientists must ask, especially if they want to understand the cause of natural climate fluctuations of varying duration. These fluctuations superimpose the general global warming trend since the beginning of industrialization and thus complicate the accurate determination of human influence on the climate. The causes and mechanisms of natural climate variability, however, are poorly understood. A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.The presumption of such predictability potential has been around for more than half a century. In 1964, the Norwegian climate researcher Jacob Bjerknes postulated different causes of climate variability …
New paper finds lunar-tidal cycles explain much of the 20th century global temperature changes — Published in Energy & Environment
New paper finds lunar-tidal cycles explain much of the 20th century global temperature changes
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/new-paper-finds-lunar-tidal-cycles.html
A new peer-reviewed paper published in Energy & Environment finds long-term lunar tide cycles “lead to conditions that preferentially favor the onset of La Niña/El Niño events that last for approximately 30 years” and significantly affect global temperatures. The author concludes, “the IPCC needs to take into consideration the possibility that long term Lunar atmospheric tides could be acting as a trigger to favor either El Niño or La Niña conditions and that these changes in the relative frequency of these two type of events could be responsible for much of the observed changes in the world mean temperature during the 20th century.”Are Global Mean Temperatures Significantly Affected by Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides?Ian R. G. WilsonLiverpool Plains Daytime Astronomy Centre, Curlewis, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: Wilson and Sidorenkov find that there are four extended pressure features in the summer (DJF) mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) anomaly maps that are centred between 30 and 50° S and separated from each other by approximately 90° in longitude. In addition, they show that, over the period from 1947 to 1994, these patterns drift westward in longitude at rates that produce circumnavigation times that match the 18.6 year lunar Draconic cycle. These type of pressure anomaly pattern naturally produce large extended regions of abnormal atmospheric pressure that pass over the semi-permanent South Pacific sub-tropical high roughly once every ~ 4.5 years. These moving regions of higher/lower than normal atmospheric pressure increase/decrease the MSLP of the semi-permanent high pressure system, temporarily increasing/reducing the strength of the East-Pacific trade winds. This leads to conditions that preferentially favor the onset of La Niña/El Niño events that last for approximately 30 years. Wilson and Sidorenkov find that the pressure of the moving anomaly pattern changes in such a way as to favor La Niña over El Niño events between 1947 and 1970 and favor El Niño over La Niña events between 1971 and 1994. This is in agreement with the observed evolution of the El Niño/ La Niña events during the latter part of the 20th century. They speculate that the transition of the pattern from a positive to a negative pressure anomaly follows a 31/62/93/186 year lunar tidal cycle that results from the long-term interaction between the Perigee-Syzygy and Draconic lunar tidal cycles. Hence, the IPCC needs to take into consideration the possibility that long …
Walter Russell Mead: We Really Don’t Understand Our Climate. ‘The warming plateau is exposing our limited understanding of climate and it’s effectively killing the rationale for green policies that limit growth’
Walter Russell Mead: We Really Don’t Understand Our Climate
http://www.thegwpf.org/walter-russell-mead-dont-understand-climate/
The warming plateau is exposing our limited understanding of climate and it’s effectively killing the rationale for green policies that limit growth.
Scientists are still struggling to explain the slower-than-predicted global warming over the past decade. It’s a puzzle with enormous implications: we know that we’re emitting greenhouse gases in record quantities, and we know that these gases trap more of the sun’s heat, yet global surface temperatures are significantly lower than what our climate models predicted. If our models are otherwise correct, then where is this heat going? A group of UK climate scientists have some ideas:
A range of factors have been pinpointed for what has come to be called the “hiatus” or “pause” in warming, which the scientists said they expected to be temporary.
These include small airborne particles known as aerosols from volcanic eruptions that have a cooling effect as they reflect sunlight back into space; the impact of the regular cycle of solar activity; the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gases, and the way the oceans absorb heat.
There are innumerable variables in the climate system that could be responsible for the warming slowdown. These scientists have identified some of the likeliest culprits, but one professor admitted that they “don’t fully understand the relative importance of these different factors.”
That’s a big problem, considering most green legislation aimed at reducing emissions calls for measures to prevent very specific degrees of warming. This recent warming plateau is exposing our limited understanding of climate, and it’s effectively killing the rationale for green policies that limit growth and, at the most basic level, try to force people to do things they would rather not do.
Via Meadia, 23 July 2013
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Veteran German Meteorologist Calls Climate Findings “Procured” …Sees Only 0.5°C Of Warming For CO2-Doubling
Veteran German Meteorologist Calls Climate Findings “Procured” …Sees Only 0.5°C Of Warming For CO2-Doubling
Meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) recently was interviewed by German trade journal Welt der Fertigung (World of Production) on the subject of climate change.
Since global temperatures have not increased in 15 years, doubts about anthropogenic global warming are now seeping into the fields of engineering and industry, which for years have been major proponents of renewable energy technologies.
Meteorologist Puls, who has over 40 years experience in the field of meteorology and climate, provides us some interesting insights. What follows are some excerpts.
On the subject of climate being used as an instrument for enacting new taxes and fees, Puls comments…
The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is not completely without impact on the climate. The impact however, is relatively small because of physical laws, and is about 0.5°C for a CO2 doubling with respect to today. Early on – around the mid 1980s – politics empowered a pseudo-science called ‘climate protection’. The political motivations were on one hand “world rescue philosophies“, and, on the other hand, fiscal interests via ecological taxes.”
Puls on the mixing of politics and science…
Many of the scientific findings are merely results of a certain “procured science’: ‘whose bread one eats, whose words one speaks,’ is the old saying. And the IPCC itself is a politically founded organization, just as the name says: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
On a global climate treaty, Puls is adamant:
There isn’t going to be any international climate treaty.”
On the subject of CO2′s assumed high sensitivity, Puls says that even the IPCC itself concedes…
…that a doubling of CO2 alone can produce only 1°C of warming. Beyond that feedback effects get calculated in. The IPCC reports speak about ‘assumed values’. This is nothing but hypotheses!”
On global temperatures having stagnated for 15 years, Puls says:
The 15-year stop in global warming is now outside the range of climate ‘noise’ and climate models. It is statistically significant. […] from a science point a view, it is sheer absurdity to want to maintain ‘a nice, comfortable, stable climate’ through a few turns of some sort of CO2 control-knob.”
If anthropogenic global warming is not really happening, then how could the whole world have been blindly led to this unbelievable error? Puls answers
I cannot answer that …
New paper finds lunar-tidal cycles influence climate: Study published in the International Journal of Climatology finds the 18.6 year lunar-tide cycle influences rainfall and climate over adjacent land areas’
New paper finds lunar-tidal cycles influence climate
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-finds-lunar-tidal-cycles.html
A paper published today in the International Journal of Climatology finds the 18.6 year lunar-tide cycle influences rainfall and climate over adjacent land areas. According to the authors, in years of strong tides, tide-induced ocean mixing decreases sea surface temperatures and lowers air pressures, which in turn affects rainfall variability over the plains east of the subtropical Andes, South America. The opposite pattern is observed in years of weak tides. The paper adds to other peer-reviewed publications finding a lunar influence on ocean and atmospheric oscillations, which in turn have large scale effects upon climate. The IPCC ignores lunar, solar, and other planetary harmonics, which alone can explain climate change of the past millennium. The 18.6-year nodal tidal cycle and the bi-decadal precipitation oscillation over the plains to the east of subtropical Andes, South America
This work shows statistical evidence for lunar nodal cycle influence on the low-frequency summer rainfall variability over the plains to the east of subtropical Andes, in South America, through long-term sea surface temperature (SST) variations induced by the nodal amplitude of diurnal tides over southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA). In years of strong (weak) diurnal tides, tide-induced diapycnal mixing makes SST cooler (warmer) together with low (high) air pressures in the surroundings of the Malvinas/Falklands Islands in the SWSA, possibly through mean tropospheric baroclinicity variations. As the low-level tropospheric circulation anomalies directly affect the interannual summer rainfall variability, such an influence can be extended to the bi-decadal variability present in the summer rainfall owing to the nodal modulation effect observed in the tropospheric circulation. The identification of the nodal periodicity in the summer rainfall variability is statistically robust.
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