Natural Forcing Of Arctic Climate
Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists
Three years ago a cogent paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature that was surprisingly candid in its rejection of the position that the substantial warming and sea ice reduction in the Arctic occurring since the late 1970s should be predominantly attributed to anthropogenic forcing.
Dr. Quinhua Ding and 6 co-authors indicated in their paper that internal processes — natural variability associated with planetary waves and the North Atlantic Oscillation — are drivers of the recent Arctic warming and sea ice reduction, concluding that “a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”
“Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks. We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation.”
“Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth’s rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.”
Since 2014, there have been several more scientific papers that have been published documenting the significance of natural forcing processes in the Arctic and how they may override a clear detection of an anthropogenic influence.
But 2017 already seems to be an exception. Papers that document the dominance of natural forcing —
OSLO (Reuters) – Nations around the world have adopted more than 1,200 laws to curb climate change, up from about 60 two decades ago, which is a sign of widening efforts to limit rising temperatures, a study showed on Tuesday.
“Most countries have a legal basis on which future action can be built,” Patricia Espinosa, the U.N.’s climate change chief, told a webcast news conference of the findings issued at an international meeting on climate change in Bonn, Germany.
She said the findings were “cause for optimism”, adding that laws were one yardstick for tracking action on global warming alongside others such as investment in renewable energy or backing for a 2015 climate agreement, ratified by 144 nations.
The study, by the London School of Economics (LSE), reviewed laws and executive policies in 164 nations, ranging from national cuts in greenhouse gases to curbs in emissions in sectors such as transport, power generation or industry.
Forty-seven laws had been added since world leaders adopted a Paris Agreement to combat climate change in late 2015, a slowdown from a previous peak of about 100 a year around 2009-13 when many developed nations passed laws.
U.S. President Donald Trump doubts that climate change has a human cause and is considering pulling out of the Paris Agreement but legislation is often complicated to undo.
“If you have that big body of 1,200 laws it is hard to reverse,” Samuel Fankhauser, co-director of the LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, told the news conference.
The study said that developing nations were legislating more but there were many gaps. Nations including Comoros, Sudan and Somalia had no climate laws.
“We don’t want weaklings in the chain,” said Martin Chungong, Secretary General of the Inter-Parliamentary Union. He urged all countries to adopt laws that help limit downpours, heatwaves and rising sea levels.
(Reporting by Alister Doyle; editing by Ken Ferris)…
A fool’s errand: Al Gore’s $15 trillion carbon tax to ‘re-engineer humanity’ to save us from global warming
by Fred Palmer | May 9, 2017, 5:00 AM
Al Gore wants to reverse modernity and save the world from itself through an elimination of its fossil-fuel-based energy system. During the final week of April, his newly created Energy Transitions Commission released a document setting forth a fool’s-errand pathway to “decarbonize” the world’s energy system.
If this sounds familiar, it is. Gore’s plan features a new, sophisticated, and expensive public-relations campaign, but it’s all based on his views on carbon dioxide first broached in his 1992 book Earth in the Balance, which he reissued in 2000 for his failed presidential campaign. The subsequent efforts made by Gore during the past 25 years have transformed little from their genesis, and he remains as tragically wrong today as he was when he first surfaced as an opponent of everything linked to carbon-dioxide.
But, don’t worry! The all-in estimated cost to re-engineer humanity is only a mere $15 trillion—enough money to give every man, woman, and child in the United States more than $46,000.
Al Gore has been demonizing fossil fuels and attempting to marginalize all those involved in the traditional energy sector since 1988, the year the climate-change movement was rolled out in Washington, D.C., which happened to correspond with a nationwide heatwave and with Yellowstone in flames. Ever since, Gore’s pathway to political power and personal riches has been a successful one, to be sure, but his multi-trillion-dollar effort today is his most sophisticated effort to date. Unfortunately for him, it will also fail, because what he’s selling in his “new” proposal is bad for the people being asked to embrace it.…
By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc. – vencoreweather.com
Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US is experiencing an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May. Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we heads towards the middle of May. In addition, temperatures in the Arctic region – which have been generally running at above-normal levels in recent weeks – have actually dropped to below-normal in recent days. One of the main factors contributing to this late season cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere is a blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere centered over Greenland and Iceland and this tends to contribute to cold air outbreaks into the land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
During the month of April, Europe experienced a persistent colder-than-normal pattern and significant snow piled up in the Alps across the central part of the continent. The air was so cold, in fact, that many vineyards from England-to-Italy suffered serious losses as the battle with freezing conditions was relentless in many areas. In the US, a colder-than-normal pattern has kicked in for much of the nation and should continue into the middle of the month and there has been some accumulating snow in the western US and across portions of the Northern Plains and interior Northeast. In fact, the next ten days or so will see more in the way of accumulating snow in the western US and many ski resorts in that part of the country will have good conditions right into the month of June. The Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California, for example, will get more substantial snowfall over the next ten days or so to add to the massive totals that they received this winter.
The ice sheets of central Antarctica have been stable for millions of years when conditions were warmer than now, a new research has found. Researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Northumbria studied rocks on slopes of the Ellsworth Mountains in Antarctica, whose peaks protrude through the ice sheet. However, the scientists are concerned that ice at the coastline is vulnerable to rising temperature, though the discovery points towards the long-term stability of Antarctica’s ice sheet. — The Indian Express, 8 May 2017
Glacier flow at the southern Antarctic Peninsula has increased since the 1990s, but a new study has found the change to be only a third of what was recently reported. The new research calls into question recent claims of much more dramatic ice loss. The new Leeds led research calls into question a recent study from the University of Bristol that reported 45 cubic kilometres per year increase in ice loss from the sector. The Leeds research found the increase to be three times smaller. —University of Leeds, 2 May 2017
1) Antarctic Ice Sheets Stable For Millions Of Years
2) Antarctic Peninsula Ice More Stable Than Thought
3) Data Analyses Show Rapid Global Surface Cooling, Growing Arctic Ice Thickness
4) Scientists ‘More Confident Than Ever’ In Global Warming After Studying The Lack Of It For 15 Years
5) NYT Columnist Warns Of ‘Intellectual Hubris’ Among Climate Scientists
6) Ivanka Trump To Review Climate Policy As US Mulls Paris Pullout
7) And Finally: Are Microbiologists Climate-Denying Science Haters?
A new study examining explanations for the 10- to 15-year “hiatus” in global warming has scientists “more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.” But climate skeptics are already firing back at the claims. IACS’s study looked at different explanations for the “hiatus” in global warming, which the study defined as the 10 or 15 years after 1998, ultimately to put to rest arguments by skeptics the lack of warming during this time cut into theories of catastrophic warming. “I think it
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen: Believing CO2 controls the climate ‘is pretty close to believing in magic’
Richard Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
MIT atmospheric science professor Richard Lindzen suggests that many claims regarding climate change are exaggerated and unnecessarily alarmist.
For over 30 years, I have been giving talks on the science of climate change. When, however, I speak to a non-expert audience, and attempt to explain such matters as climate sensitivity, the relation of global mean temperature anomaly to extreme weather, that warming has decreased profoundly for the past 18 years, etc., it is obvious that the audience’s eyes are glazing over. Although I have presented evidence as to why the issue is not a catastrophe and may likely be beneficial, the response is puzzlement. I am typically asked how this is possible. After all, 97% of scientists agree, several of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past 18 years, all sorts of extremes have become more common, polar bears are disappearing, as is arctic ice, etc. In brief, there is overwhelming evidence of warming, etc. I tended to be surprised that anyone could get away with such sophistry or even downright dishonesty, but it is, unfortunately, the case that this was not evident to many of my listeners. I will try in this brief article to explain why such claims are, in fact, evidence of the dishonesty of the alarmist position.
The 97% meme:
This claim is actually a come-down from the 1988 claim on the cover of Newsweek that all scientists agree. In either case, the claim is meant to satisfy the non-expert that he or she has no need to understand the science. Mere agreement with the 97% will indicate that one is a supporter of science and superior to anyone denying disaster. This actually satisfies a psychological need for many people. The claim is made by a number of individuals and there are a number of ways in which the claim is presented. A thorough debunking has been given in the Wall Street Journal by Bast and Spencer. One of the dodges is to poll scientists as to whether they agree that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have increased, that the Earth has been warming (albeit only a little) and that man has played some part. This is, indeed, something almost all of us can agree on, but which has no …
Exclusive Video: People’s Climate March hostile to skeptics – Attempts to take down signs, deny access
WASHINGTON DC — The People’s Climate March in Washington DC today turned into a hostile environment for climate skeptics. Attempts to deny media credentials, block vehicle access and multiple attacks on banners by the marchers, were frequent throughout the day. (Also see: Skeptics Attend People’s Climate March With New Report & Billboards – Denied Media Credentials) & see new skeptical “Talking Points” report here. )
Watch Exclusive Video of marchers attempting to prevent skeptical banner from being seen.
The People’s Climate March initially officially rejected climate skeptics’ media credentials, despite the group being being pre-registered for media passes and meeting all requirements. March organizers informed us that we were “not a credible” news outlet and were therefore being denied media credentials which would have granted us access to speaker and VIP areas of the march. Prior to being told we were rejected, the organizers had given no indication that there was any kind of issue. After submitting our registration for media passes, we received regular media updates throughout the week.
But a few hours later, The People’s Climate March reversed their decision and issued media credentials for us at the march…sort of. We went to the main media tent and asked why we were not allowed to be credentialed. We saw on the media list that our entry on it had a huge red line through it, implying that we had been approved, but then red lined out and rejected.
After hearing that “space was limited” and “I only work here” and “not sure” why you can’t get credentials, we were directed to one of the heads of credentialing who finally approved our passes. I asked “ Do you really want another Berkeley” style incident here?
But even though we finally received our press passed, we had already missed most of the VIP area media availability, so the passes came a bit too late to have a full access to the attendees.
When we were finally allowed into the VIP area, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse recognized me from time as a former Sen. Inhofe staff as the Director of Communications for the Senate Environment & Public Works Committee and from the film “Merchants of Doubt” which smears climate skeptics (and which Whitehouse had a special screening on Capitol Hill).
I had a rousing interview with Whitehouse, but immediately after that, a whisper campaign in the VIP area …
Skeptics To Attend People’s Climate March – Will Feature Billboards Rejecting Premise of March and Hand Out New Report Debunking Marchers’ Claims
Contact: Marc Morano – 202-536-5052 – [email protected]
WASHINGTON DC, April 29, 2017 – Climate skeptics from the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) will be in attendance at the “People’s Climate March” in our nation’s capital on Saturday April 29 and will be bringing large billboards countering the premise of the march.
Images of billboards that will be at the march below:
The skeptics will also be handing out a newly released report “How to Talk Climate Change Issues 2017” offering a virtual A-Z debunking of the climate claims that will be heard at the march.
Click here for full report: “How to Talk Climate Change Issues 2017”
The “Talking Points Memo,” by veteran climate journalist Marc Morano of CFACT’s Climate Depot, is a complete skeptics’ guide for elected officials, media and the public on how to discuss global warming backed up by dozens of citations to peer-reviewed research.
“We look forward to wading into the crowds at the march and presenting the scientific facts to counter this utter nonsense, ” Morano said. “Make no mistake, climate campaigners who tout UN agreements and EPA regulations as a way to control Earth’s temperature and storminess are guilty of belief in superstition,” he added.
The need for a “Talking Points Memo,” according to Morano, became evident after several government officials fared poorly in their attempts to defend a skeptical view of climate change in recent high-profile media interviews.
“It is obvious that many in Washington badly need information on how to articulate the case against man-made climate change fears,” he said.
Many of the arguments put forth by global warming advocates either embellish or distort the scientific facts on a host of issues, ranging from rising sea levels and global temperatures to polar caps to extreme weather and polar bears, among others. The “Talking Points Memo” is designed to arm people with important facts so they can better engage in climate change debate with those advocating the UN/Al Gore position. Footnotes are provided to substantiate all the claims made in the document.
Excerpt: “Global warming hype and hysteria have for
Climate march to spoil Trump’s big day
It seems the Earth has a sense of irony. “Record-breaking heat” is possible at the People’s Climate March in DC on Saturday, where thousands of people are planning to protest against the president’s climate change policies on his 100th day in office. Trump’s initiatives include, but are not limited to, a 31% cut in the Environmental Protection Agency and potentially leaving the Paris climate agreement.
Among those suffering in the heat will be former vice-president Al Gore and, apparently, Leonardo DiCaprio. It is likely to take a titanic effort to change the other Wolf of Wall Street’s mind, however, as Trump has repeatedly said that the inception of climate change had nothing to do with mankind. Only 1,361 more days of this to go!
A group of senators, including Resistance regular Bernie Sanders, this week unveiled legislation that aims to transition to 100% clean and renewable energy by 2050.
The resistance’s next target: big banks
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants and their allies will be striking and marching around the country on 1 May. The May Day protests are traditionally led by unions and labor groups, but this year – galvanized by the Trump administration – immigration, racial justice, gender equality and LGBT groups will be playing a big part.
Demonstrations will take place in a number of states. Activist groups are launching a “Corporate Backers of Hate Campaign” on the same day, which will see demonstrations at the offices of companies seen to be supporting or benefiting from the Trump presidency. Targets include JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs.
Luke Skywalker v Trump
Trump will be met by thousands of Luke Skywalkers, Hans Solos, and, depending on individuals’ tastes, Jar Jar Binkses when he returns to New York City next week.…