Unusual Cold Wave & Heavy Snows Hit Europe
Overview
A cold wave has hit Europe and it looks like much of the continent will stay well below normal right through the rest of the month of April. In addition to the unusual cold, heavy snow accumulations are likely over the next ten days in many higher elevation locations (e.g., Alps) and accumulating snow is probable as far south as southern Italy and Greece.
Details
Much of Europe is currently experiencing temperatures that are some 10-15 degrees (C) below normal for this time of year and it looks like there will be two or three additional cold air outbreaks during the next ten days or so. The temperature anomaly maps from last night’s 00Z European model for the lower atmosphere (850 millibars) suggest reinforcing cold air outbreaks will prevent any sustained return to normalcy for Europe in the near term. Well below normal temperatures are predicted throughout Europe not only for tonight, but also late in the upcoming weekend with the next cold air outbreak, and then again late next week with yet another cold blast.
In addition to the cold, snow will accumulate to substantial levels in parts of the Alps where skiing will be quite good going well into the month of May. The 00Z GFS ten-day total snowfall map (below) for Europe has more than two feet of snow in some of the higher elevation locations of central Europe and accumulating snow as far south as southern Italy and Greece.
On occasion, the weather pattern in Europe can be a signal for upcoming weather conditions in the eastern US and while there are cold air outbreaks headed this way over the next couple of weeks, it does not look like they will be quite as widespread or sustained compared to what Europe is experiencing.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
STUDY: Temperature Data Isn’t Accurate Enough To Find The Cause Of The ‘Hiatus’ In Global Warming
By MICHAEL BASTASCH
New research found there was, in fact, a nearly 15-year “hiatus” in global warming in the early part of the 21st Century, suggesting it could have been caused by natural variability in the atmosphere’s energy balance.
What’s more is climate scientists with Germany’s Max Planck Institute found there’s too much uncertainty in observational data to determine the true cause of the “hiatus” in warming.
Scientists argue that “unless the uncertainty of observational estimates can be considerably reduced, the true origin of the recent hiatus may never be determined.”
“That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force,” veteran meteorologist Anthony Watts wrote of the Max Planck study on his blog Watts Up With That.
Max Planck scientists found hiatuses in global warming can be caused by relatively small changes in ocean energy balance, which can originate from the top of the atmosphere or the ocean.
“This is the true dilemma at the heart of the hiatus debate: the variability in ocean heat content alone has no power to explain the hiatus, and the measure that can—the surface-layer flux divergence—is dwarfed by observational uncertainty,” researchers wrote in their study, led by scientist Christopher Hedemann.
For years, scientists have debated the existence of the “hiatus” in global warming — a period from 1998 to 2012 with little to no statistically significant warming.…
Analysis: The Sun, Not People, Causes Global Warming
From the Chronicle ( link ) ( It’s the Sun, Stupid .) Source: It’s the Sun, Stupid! The Sun, Not People, Causes Global Warming Apr 13, 2017 The sun is one astronomic unit, or about 93 million miles from Earth. The sun is surrounded by the heliosphere comprised of material expelled from the sun with magnetic qualities, and with charged particles.
L A Times article deceptively hides 750 million metric tons of U.S. Greenhouse Gas emission reductions
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin An April 16, 2017 L A Times article entitled “Climate goal in peril” presents a graph which portrays US greenhouse gas emission reductions as falling short of Obama’s voluntary and unenforceable 2015 Paris agreement pledge.
Study: ANTARCTIC PENINSULA COOLED NEARLY 1°C DURING 1999–2014
CO2 Science Magazine
Warming trends that were once among the highest recorded on earth have slowed and even reversed to show cooling.
Climate alarmists generally contend that current temperatures are both unnatural and unprecedented, as a result of global warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions; and they claim that this “unnaturalness” is most strongly expressed throughout the world’s polar regions. In this regard, they often point to warming on the Antarctic Peninsula (typically the Faraday/Vernadsky station) as the proverbial canary in the coal mine, where over the past several decades it has experienced warming rates that are among the highest reported anywhere on Earth.
However, in recent years two studies have challenged this assessment. Carrasco (2013) reported finding a decrease in the warming rate from stations on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula between 2001 and 2010, as well as a slight cooling trend for King George Island (in the South Shetland Islands just off the peninsula). Similarly, in an analysis of the regional stacked temperature record over the period 1979-2014, Turner et al. (2016) reported a switch from warming during 1979-1997 to cooling thereafter (1999-2014). And now, in 2017, we have a third assessment of recent temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula confirming that the canary is alive and well!
As their contribution to the debate, Olivia et al. (2017) report in the journal Science of the Total Environment how they “complete and extend [the study of Turner et al.] by presenting an updated assessment of the spatially-distributed temperature trends and interdecadal variability of mean annual air temperature and mean seasonal air temperature from 1950 to 2015, using data from ten stations distributed across the Antarctic Peninsula region.” And what did that assessment reveal?
In describing their findings, the eight European researchers write “we show that [the] Faraday/Vernadsky warming trend is an extreme case, circa twice those of the long-term records from other parts of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.” They …
New Paper: N. Hemisphere Temps Rose 4–5°C Within ‘A Few Decades’ 14,700 Years Ago – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates
Temperatures, Sea Levels ‘Naturally’ Rise
30 – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates
Modern Temperatures Only Rising 0.05°C/Decade
Since 1850, CO2 concentrations have risen from 285 ppm to 400 ppm. During these ~165 years, the IPCC has concluded that surface temperatures have warmed by 0.78°C. This is a warming rate of only 0.05°C per decade for 1850-2012 — which happens to be the same rate of warming over the 1998-2012 period.
IPCC AR5 (2013): “The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 °C, based on the single longest dataset available 4 (see Figure SPM.1). … [T]he rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 °C per decade).”
Modern Sea Levels Only Rising 0.17 Of A Meter/Century
IPCC AR5 (2013): “[T]he rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 mm yr between 1901 and 2010“
Historical Hemispheric Temperatures Rose 2.0°C/Decade
According to a new paper, the Bølling Warming event 14,700 years ago raised the surface temperature for the entire Northern Hemisphere by 4 to 5°C within a few decades. This is a hemispheric warming rate of approximately 2.0°C per decade, which is 40 times faster than the 0.05 °C per decade global warming rate since 1850 (and 1998).
Historical Sea Levels Rose 5.3 Meters/Century
Central Greenland’s surface temperatures rose by as much as 12°C during this time frame (14,700 years ago to 14,500 years ago). Consequently, glaciers and ice sheets disintegrated rapidly and sea levels rose by about 18 meters (“12-22 m”) in 340 years. An 18 m rise in 340 years is the equivalent of 5.3 meters per century, which is more than 30 times faster than the rate of sea level change (0.17 m per century) between 1901 and 2010.
Ivanovic et al., 2017 “During the Last Glacial Maximum 26–19 thousand years ago (ka), a vast ice sheet stretched over North America [Clark et al., 2009]. In subsequent millennia, as climate warmed and this ice sheet decayed,
EPA chief sued for doubting global warming hysteria
EPA chief Scott Pruitt has been sued for his recent comments on CNBC’s Squawk Box. The lawsuit is here. The media release is below. ### For Immediate Release: Apr 13, 2017 Contact: Kirsten Stade (202) 265-7337 EPA’S PRUITT SUED TO BACK UP CLIMATE CHANGE CLAIMS Pruitt Should Put Up Evidence Supporting Stance or Cease Climate … Continue reading EPA chief sued for doubting global warming hysteria
Source: EPA chief sued for doubting global warming hysteria…
What “permanent drought”? New all-time rainfall record set for California
From the California Dept. of Water Resources Northern Sierra Precipitation Sets Water Year Record Atmospheric Rivers Pushed Total to 89.7 Inches since October 1 SACRAMENTO – Never in nearly a century of Department of Water Resources (DWR) recordkeeping has so much precipitation fallen in the northern Sierra in a water year.
Source: What “permanent drought”? New all-time rainfall record set for California…
Cheers! Trump Is Dismantling the Obama ‘Climate Change’ Agenda
The leftist mainstream media are outraged that President Donald Trump appears to be sticking to his campaign promise to “cancel” U.S. participation in the Paris climate accord. The headline in The Washington Post is “Trump’s energy review blocks Group of Seven from consensus.” Politico’s headline is “Trump’s climate demands roil U.S. allies.” This follows Trump’s recent actions to rescind the foundation of Barack Obama’s climate change obsession.
Once again President Trump is being called a radical, when he is, in fact, restoring common sense to government policy. As Forbes reports, Trump’s recent seven-page executive order “lays the groundwork for rescinding” Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which is currently “suspended by the Supreme Court while a Washington appeals court considers its fate.” While Obama was known for his executive overreach (he lost in the Supreme Court more than any other president, including a record number of unanimous defeats), Trump is scaling back government interference in the marketplace that had been justified in the name of battling climate change.
“And so what President Trump did was he instructed the EPA to begin the process, through the regulatory process, of undoing something that should have been done through the legislature but wasn’t,” argues Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Chris Horner in a recent radio appearance. “This is the meta issue for the left,” he added. “It gives them what they have been demanding in the name of so many things, in the name of saving the planet.”
…
ClimateDepot.com is an indispensable website that keeps track of all relevant global warming news, and provides both sides of the debate. One very useful service it provides is the names and quotes from environmentalists, including former “warmists”—global warming believers—such as physicist Freeman Dyson: “An Obama supporter who describes himself as ‘100 per cent Democrat,’ Dyson says he is disappointed that the President ‘chose the wrong side.’ Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere does more good than harm, he argues, and humanity doesn’t face an existential crisis. Climate change, he tells us, ‘is not a scientific mystery but a human mystery. How does it happen that a whole generation of scientific experts is blind to obvious facts?’”
Then there is Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever: “Global warming is a non-problem,” he argues. “I say this to Obama: Excuse me,