The warming predicted by the latest climate models in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 averages close to 4C. Using an updated model – and even assuming all warming has been due to human activity – Spencer and a colleague suggest that future warming is likely to turn out much lower. In fact, even if we don’t reduce human carbon dioxide emissions, the world may still hit the United Nations’ stated goal of keeping warming at no more than 1.5C by the end of the century.
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