Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Home Climate411 The Problem with Climate Models

The Problem with Climate Models

-

So it may well be, no, it is likely that once the underlying physics is properly understood, climate models will emerge that produce an ECS value considerably smaller than 1.8C. What could such a model look like? To find out we look at the main source of the variation between the CMIP6 models: the positive feedback on water vapour (AR4, refs 6,7). The idea goes back to Manabe & Wetherald (8) who reasoned as follows: a warming due to CO2 increase leads to an increase in the water vapour content. Water vapour is also a ‘greenhouse gas’, so there is extra warming. This mechanism is assumed to ‘amplify’ the primary effect of CO2 increase. Vary the strength of the coupling and add the influence of clouds and you have a whole series of models that all predict a different ECS.

- Advertisment -

Related Articles

Roger Pielke Jr. Weighs in on This Week’s Hysteria: Drought

For accurately citing peer reviewed literature & US NCA on drought trends in 2013 Congressional testimony, I earned the distinction of being the only...

CBS: CDC Emergency Meeting to Discuss Rare Covid Vaccine Heart Complications

h/t Breitbart; A 2012 SARS Vaccine Study suggested vaccination increases the risk of fatal heart inflammation, when the body is challenged with the actual...

Sea Level Rise Fastest in 2000 Years (Or Not!)

As the actual data shows, the rate of sea level rise in New Jersey has been pretty constant since 1910, which suggests that carbon...