Shorefast ice formation and the fall feeding season for polar bear

What may seem like a silly question is actually fundamental to polar bear survival: in the fall, why do Western Hudson Bay bears correctly expect to find seals in the new ice that forms offshore? Why are seals attracted to that new ice – called ‘shorefast ice’ or ‘fast ice’ – when they would clearly be safer out in the open water where there is no ice and no bears?…

Call to action: become an author/tech input for the next National Climate Assessment

The deadline for “self-nomination” as an author for the 5th U.S. National Climate Assessment (“NCA5”) is 8:59 PM PST, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020. So time is short.  Here’s the notice:https://www.globalchange.gov/content/request-public-nominations-authors-and-scientifictechnical-inputs-and-notice-planned-public This will be loaded to the gills with climate alarmists, so some cooler heads will be welcome – Anthony…

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model that can account for the period disconnection using the negative forcing of aerosol/cloud effects in the Historical period that is carried forward into the Future period. I attribute some of the uncertainty in simulations of this simple model to endogenous model decision (selection) uncertainty that leads to variations in the changes of the negative forcing in the Historical period carried forward into the Future period.…

Modern Climate Change Science

The first modern theoretical estimates of ECS were reported in 1979 in the so-called “Charney Report” (Charney, et al., 1979). They reported, on page 2, a theoretical ECS of 1.5°C to 4.5°C per doubling of the CO2 atmospheric concentration. This estimate included an estimate of water vapor feedbacks, the effect of ice and their assumed……