By Kenneth Richard on 3. April 2017
650+ Skeptic Papers
Published Since 2016
During the first 3 months of 2017, over 150 papers have already been published in scientific journals that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob.
The 2017 publication rate (~50 scientific papers per month) is slightly ahead of last year’s pace. That’s because in 2016 there were 500 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in scholarly journals (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) challenging the “consensus” claim that weather and climate changes are significantly determined by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
These 150 new papers support the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate, and that natural factors — the Sun, multi-decadal oceanic oscillations (NAO, AMO/PDO, ENSO), cloud and aerosol albedo variations — have exerted a significant or dominant influence on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.
The guideline for the list of 150 scientific papers with links and summaries and graphs has been divided into 3 parts on 2 pages (Parts 1 and 2 are on the same page).
Solar Influence On Climate (37)
ENSO, NAO, AMO, PDO Climate Influence (20)
Modern Climate In Phase With Natural Variability (8)
Cloud/Aerosol Climate Influence (3)
Volcanic/Tectonic Climate Influence (1)
Climate Model Unreliability/Biases/Errors and the Pause (12)
Failing Renewable Energy, Climate Policies (2)
Warming Beneficial, Does Not Harm Humans, Wildlife (3)
No Trends In Extreme, Unstable Weather In Recent Decades (3)
Natural CO2 Sources Out-Emit Humans (2)
Fires, Anthropogenic Climate Change Disconnect (1)
Lack Of Anthropogenic/CO2 Signal In Sea Level Rise (9)
No Net Warming During 20th (21st) Century (10)
A Warmer Past: Non-Hockey Stick Reconstructions (22)
Abrupt, Degrees-Per-Decade Natural Global Warming (1)
A Model-Defying Cryosphere, Polar Ice (10)
– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/03/growing-skepticism-already-150-new-2017-scientific-papers-support-a-skeptical-position-on-climate-alarm/#sthash.FQuYLxYX.dpuf…
Inconvenient NOAA report: ‘It is premature to conclude (AGW has) already had a detectable impact on’ hurricanes
Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
1. Has Global Warming Affected Hurricane or Tropical Cyclone Activity?
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Last Revised: Mar. 17, 2017
A. Summary Statement
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:
- Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?
- What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC models?
In this review, we address these questions in the context of published research findings. We will first present the main conclusions and then follow with some background discussion of the research that leads to these conclusions. The main conclusions are:
- It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).
- Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
- There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.
- Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.
Gay rights advocates danced in front of Ivanka Trump’s Washington, D.C. residence on Saturday to “WERK for Mother Earth” as part of the Queer Dance Party for Climate Justice (warning: strong language).
The event, hosted by Queer Resistance, WERK for Peace, 350 DC, and the Trans Women of Color Collective, gathered over a hundred people to protest against the Trump administration allegedly “rolling back environmental regulations” and “revok[ing] protections for LGBTQ government employees.”
Lourdes Ashley Hunter, the executive director of the Trans Women of Color Collective told the crowd “Dance is a language of revolution,” and to “Get ready to twerk. F*** up her (Ivanka’s) lawn.”
“I got one more thing to say,” Hunter added before telling the crowd to stay warm and dance, “F**k the police! F**k the motherf**king police!”
According to the event description on Facebook, the organizers take offense to Ivanka having been described as the “BFF of the gays,” even though she reportedly helped stop the Trump administration from enacting an executive order regarding federal LGBTQ protections.
Her father, President Donald Trump, championed gay rights at the Republican National Convention, held the gay pride flag high during a speech, said transgender icon Caitlyn Jenner can use any restroom she chooses, and is the first president to be inaugurated supporting gay marriage.…
So far, the Southern Hemisphere has seen 13 named storms, including four hurricane-strength storms. Only two of those storms became major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, according to data compiled by Colorado State University
Most recently, Tropical Cyclone Debbie struck Australia’s northeastern coast in late March, forcing 25,000 people to be evacuated from low-lying areas. Debbie brought 161-mile-per-hour winds and cut power to thousands of residents. At least four deaths have been blamed on the storm.
The Southern Hemisphere’s quiet hurricane season comes after the most active season in the North Atlantic since 2010. The 2016 Atlantic season saw 16 named storms, including seven hurricanes.
Just three of those hurricanes were Category 3 or higher, and none made landfall this years. A major hurricane has not made landfall in the U.S. for more than a decade.
Hurricane Matthew was set to end the U.S.’s decade-long hurricane “drought,” but the storm did not make landfall as a Category 3 storm.
Matthew still caused billions of dollars worth of damage and forced thousands to flee their homes. The storm is estimated to have killed more than 1,000 people in Haiti.…
The March for Science is another one of those liberal anti-Trump rallies. This one is being organized by scientists who believe the Trump administration is planning on reversing every scientific discovery since Copernicus. Originally they chose Bill Nye the fraudulent science guy as their public face, but there was an uprising against the decision because he’s a white guy.
The March for Life is a protest against what liberal scientists believe is President Trump’s anti-Science agenda:
Nearly 400 marches in 37 countries will take place on April 22, demonstrating global resistance to Trump agenda
President Donald Trump’s administration has fulfilled his campaign rhetoric when it comes to waging war on science, from erasing WhiteHouse.gov references to climate change on the day of his inauguration, to banning the term “climate change” at the Department of Energy’s climate office, to proposing massive cuts to medical research to fund a new U.S.-Mexico border wall.
On April 22, a global March for Science will see 400 events in 37 countries, with a massive march in Washington, D.C. Organizers also announced Thursday that prominent scientists Bill Nye, Lydia Villa-Komaroff, and Mona Hanna-Attisha will be honorary co-chairs of the March for Science
One would think that if the March For Science organizers would have problems with Bill Nye as their public face it would be because he is not now, nor has he ever been a real science guy. Just a Steve Martin impersonator who became a sketch comedy guy.
Heat Street reports
Nye, who is not, in fact, a scientist, except on television (he’s an engineer by trade), was slated to be the March’s chair, and an announcement was made last week. But organizers quickly panicked that having Nye at the forefront of the event meant they might be substantiating the idea that scientists are only old white men.…
The March for Science, scheduled for April 22, was planning to have Bill Nye, the Science Guy, function as the event’s first honorary co-chair, but then made a startling discovery.
Nye is white.
That did it; complaints mounted that the event was not featuring people of color, and voila! As Buzzfeed reports, “Mona Hanna-Attisha, the pediatrician who first exposed dangerous lead poisoning among the mostly poor black kids in Flint, Michigan, and Lydia Villa-Komaroff, a molecular biologist famous for helping to figure out how to get bacteria to make insulin,” were added to the list.
Forget the fact that Nye isn’t even a scientist; Stephani Page, a biophysicist at University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill who was invited to the march’s board after she questioned its commitment to diversity, fulminated, “I love Bill Nye. But I do feel comfortable saying to you what I said to the steering committee: He is a white male, and in that way he does represent the status quo of science, of what it is to be a scientist.” Page added that adding the two women “was an opportunity to put up a picture of science that did not just fit the white male image.”
The march’s lead organizer, Jonathan Berman, admitted, “We did talk internally about the optics of having the first person to be announced be only a white man.”…
The worst tornado outbreak in recent history occurred on April 3-4, 1974 at the peak of the 1970’s ice age scare.
Temperatures on April 3, were very hot in the southeast with Texas over 100 degrees and much of the south over 90 degrees. Over the next 48 hours a strong cold front pushed across the region and spawned the tornadoes when very cold, dry air collided with the warm humid air in the southeast.
Scientists at the time blamed the tornadoes on global cooling, which they said was going to kill us all.
Tornadoes are now blamed on global warming, which scientists say will kill us all. Biggest scam in science history.
Take a look at the Clean Power Plan — Obama’s most ambitious climate change effort. Despite the costs of this regulatory monstrosity, the Clean Power Plan would have no discernible impact in global carbon dioxide emissions over the next three decades.
That’s not the conclusion of climate change “deniers.” That’s what the Obama administration’s own Department of Energy said in a report issued in May 2016.
As part of its International Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration provided long-term forecasts of energy-related CO2 emissions, comparing global emissions with the Clean Power Plan, and without it.
What it shows is that with the Clean Power Plan, global carbon emissions would still climb 32% in 2012 and 2040, only slightly below what the increase will be without it. (See nearby chart.)
This growth in global emissions, by the way, comes despite continued improvements in decarbonizing economies in both the developed and developing world.
As we noted in this space recently, without any government mandates, energy-related CO2 emissions in the U.S. fell 12.4% from 2007 to 2015. Overall carbon intensity — a measure of how much CO2 it takes to produce a dollar of GDP — declined an average 1.5% a year since 2005.
These gains are due both to the fracking breakthrough, which unleashed massive supplies of lower-carbon natural gas, and the unending pressure the free market puts on businesses to be more efficient.
This same market-driven decarbonizing trend has been happening around the world.
Between 1990 and 2012, the carbon intensity of developed nations dropped by 33%, and by 25% in developing countries. By 2040, the carbon intensity of developed nations will be cut in half, the report projects, and will drop by almost 40% in developed countries, the Energy Department report shows.
Yet overall energy-related CO2 emissions will still climb by 51% in developing countries, and 8% among industrialized nations, from 2012 to 2040 — even with the Paris agreement.
Why? “Increases in output per capita coupled with population growth overwhelm improvements in energy intensity and carbon intensity,” the report explains.
In other words, barring some miracle scientific breakthrough, the only reliable way to cut global carbon emissions would be to depopulate the planet or kill economic growth.…
Filmmaker Michael Moore is continuing to speak out against President Trump.
In an interview with the Huffington Post on Friday, Moore commented on Trump’s recent actions that many critics say reverse much of the work done by the previous administration on addressing climate change.
Moore said, “For him to tear up every single regulation instituted by President Obama on climate change and for him to say that that will no longer be a concern when they make their decisions, is not just a f**k you to the rest of this world, but it’s a declaration of war against the actual planet.”…
When climate change warriors can’t keep their stories straight
Mark Twain, author of the now politically incorrect Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, once said, “If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.” Good advice, especially for those who play fast and loose with facts and truth. And relevant in the internet age when articles, headlines, words and photos are preserved in perpetuity.
Lies, built upon lies, eventually become so tangled that the truth may be forever lost down the rabbit hole. Rather than starting with the truth, to avoid having to remember the labyrinthine path taken by each additional falsehood.
CNN, the network famously referred to by President Trump as “fake news”, should heed the advice of Mark Twain. Otherwise they are likely to be tripped up over their own contradictory stories, in this case only a few years apart.
In 2015, CNN ran a story with the headline, “Did climate change cause California drought?” Less than two years later, CNN ran this headline, “California’s drought is almost over.” Is the irony of these two headlines lost on the journalistic mavens of CNN? Probably. But the internet remembers, happy to take CNN to task over their contradictions.
Despite the accusatory headline tying the drought to climate change, buried in the article is a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration arguing that the California drought is not due to climate change. In fact, this region suffered “megadroughts” eons ago, long before humans were driving SUVs and burning coal for electricity.
In other words, the recent California drought is one of many in this arid region. Likely made worse by water supply and demand, rather than climate change. A growing population in Southern California, consuming ever increasing amounts of water. And the cyclical nature of droughts.
Those who only scan headlines, without reading the entire article, only see “California drought” and “climate change” linked together. The few who read the article completely recognize the “fake news” headline for what it is. Much like another recent story in CNN with a similarly misleading headline, “Is there a link between climate change and diabetes?” Buried in the article is the truth that such a link is speculative, an association rather than causation. Regardless of the headline proclamation.
Human activity “may” cause this or “could” cause that. Maybe. Or maybe not.