Friday, November 27, 2020
Home Left Column Hottest year? 'They don’t tell you how much warmer it actually was....

Hottest year? ‘They don’t tell you how much warmer it actually was. If they did, myth would be exposed immediately’

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Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain’t so – 2016 was the warmest year

Labels: Bryan Leyland, Global Warming
“Things you know that ain’t so – 2016 was the warmest recorded year: global warming is real and dangerous”.

Or so they tell you. But you when you examine the facts, you come to the opposite conclusion. It is a classic example of using half-truths to mislead.

They don’t tell you how much warmer it actually was. If they did, the myth would be exposed immediately.

The amount of warming depends on which of the five recognised temperature records you use.

If you believe the satellite records – that NASA says are the most accurate – the warming since 1998 is between 0.02° and 0.04° – 0.1° to 0.2° per century. Statistically, it provides no evidence of warming of any sort.

The other measurements are the surface temperature records that have very poor surface coverage – virtually nothing over the ocean and huge areas of the earth – and have been systematically “adjusted” over the years to exaggerate the warming over the last hundred years or so. For instance, according to the GISS 2008 temperature record, the world warmed by 0.45° between 1910 and 2000. By January 2017, the GISS records showed that the warming for the same period had increased to 0.75°. Remarkable!

According to the satellites, the 2016 El Niño was not much hotter than that of 1998 but the surface temperature records indicate a more rapid rate of warming. But there is a big problem with this. El Niño events are natural and unpredictable and, because they are isolated events, they are unrelated to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations that would lead to a steady temperature rise. Measuring from the 1998 peak temperature to 2016 peak temperature gives a much more rapid rate of warming than measuring the average temperature trend over the period.  So they use the temperature peaks. Putting it another way, if the 2016 El Nino had been cooler than that of 1998, would they have told us that it heralds global cooling? I think not.

The plain fact is that although the computer models predicted 0.5° temperature rise during the last 18 years the records show that world has not warmed in any statistically significant sense.  Even the surface temperature records show a warming of 0.2° over that period. According to the IPCC, half of this warming will be man-made. Nothing to get excited about.

Once again, the global warming fraternity have used half-truths to mislead the public into believing that dangerous man-made global warming is really happening when the information they quote from shows the opposite.

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