Analysis: US biologist’s defense of flawed polar bear predictions is an embarrassment to science
US biologist’s defense of flawed polar bear predictions is an embarrassment to science
A few days ago in a radio interview, a senior US Fish & Wildlife biologist repeated the tall tale that Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear numbers declined in recent years due to loss of summer sea ice. But restating this egregious misinformation does not make it true. The Southern Beaufort population did decline between 2001 and 2006 but it was due to natural causes (thick ice in spring from 2004 to 2006) – it had nothing to do with recent summer sea ice loss and Eric Regehr knows it. There is no evidence that the population decline continued after 2006, so it cannot be said to be still declining. Moreover, the situation in the Southern Beaufort does not support the predictions made by Regehr and his colleagues that polar bear populations will decline precipitously if summer sea ice declines further. My recently published paper demolishes the message of doom for polar bears and the misinformation it’s based upon: it’s free and written in straight-forward scientific language. Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/ (pdf here). Here’s an excerpt of the nonsense broadcasted on KNOM Radio Alaska by Regehr and transcribed for their website (29 January 2017) [my bold]: “If there’s a poster child for Arctic animals affected by climate change, it’s the polar bear. … “Putting together all available data, and making some informed projections on the basis of those data, do suggest that there is a high probability that the global population of polar bears could face reductions of up to one-third or greater in the next 35 to 40 years,” said Regehr. One group that’s thriving is the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, which includes Western Alaska and the Russian coast across the water. “The waters are shallow, they’re nutrient rich; there are a lot of seals, ringed seals and bearded seals, out there for the polar bears to eat,” said Regehr. “And so, other studies suggest that, despite the fact that the Chukchi Sea region has exhibited a loss of Arctic sea ice the bears in that region appear to be faring quite well, currently.” But their neighbors to the East, the South …
Trump To ‘Honour Pledge To Withdraw From Paris Agreement’, Ebell Says
Trump To ‘Honour Pledge To Withdraw From Paris Agreement’, Ebell Says
http://www.thegwpf.com/trump-to-honour-pledge-to-withdraw-from-paris-agreement-ebell-says/
US president Donald Trump will honour his campaign pledge to pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement and defund UN climate programmes, a former adviser to the new administration has said. Myron Ebell served as head of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) transition team from early September until 19 January, when he helped to draft an advisory action plan on how to implement Trump’s campaign promises. At a press briefing held by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and the Foreign Press Association (FPA) in London today, Ebell declined to divulge any details of the EPA document on the grounds that it is confidential. But Ebell, a well-known climate change sceptic and head of the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s (CEI) energy and environment centre, outlined Trump’s “very clear” promises on energy and the environment that he is convinced the new president will honour. Apart from withdrawing from the UN climate deal, Trump will also potentially repeal all of the previous administration’s EPA rules on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions including the clean power plan and the climate action plan. Ebell expects Trump “to be very assiduous in keeping his promises despite all the flack he is going to get from his opponents,” adding that he brings a “message of hope” in terms of the new administration’s energy and environment policy. The first hopeful aspect is that the US will clearly change course on climate policy, Ebell said. Secondly, the new US president has undertaken to unleash US energy production growth. Trump said he wants to make the US the world’s largest energy producer and achieve a position of global dominance for the country, he said. “This is obviously good for the US, but also for the world because in becoming the top global energy supplier the US will reduce the influence of certain countries in the Middle East and of Russia,” Ebell said. “This is going to happen because the US has the world’s largest fossil fuel reserves — by far the largest coal reserves and also, because of the shale revolution, gigantic fields of natural gas and oil.” An apparent contradiction emerged in recent weeks between Trump’s position and that of his incoming secretary of state Rex Tillerson, who said the US will “remain part” of UN climate discussions. When asked about these contrasting positions, Ebell said …
Colorado: So much snow that it buried an avalanche warning sign
So much snow that it buried an avalanche warning sign
https://www.iceagenow.info/much-snow-buried-avalanche-warning-sign/
“Whatever, the sign says, it doesn’t help very much,” say Jake Gronseth and Rex Berkey, who uploaded the photo of the buried sign. According to 9news.com, Colorado’s Loveland Pass has received 115 inches of snow this January, as opposed to the average 58 inches for this time of year. See photo: http://www.9news.com/weather/theres-so-much-snow-on-loveland-pass-that-it-buried-an-avalanche-warning-sign/393894628 Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link The post So much snow that it buried an avalanche warning sign appeared first on Ice Age Now.
— gReader Pro…
Salon: Childless Climate Faithful Upset By Celebrity Hypocrisy
Salon: Childless Climate Faithful Upset By Celebrity Hypocrisy
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/30/salon-climate-faithful-upset-other-people-are-having-children
Guest essay by Eric Worrall According to Salon, women who have taken a personal decision to help save the planet, by not having children, are angry that celebrity hypocrites appear to be ignoring the climate issues which they claim to take so seriously. Baby Doomers: As climate change threatens to strain resources, women are increasingly […]
— gReader Pro…
‘Trump’s Energy U-Turn Will Benefit Developing Nations And Fuel Poor’, Says Ebell
‘Trump’s Energy U-Turn Will Benefit Developing Nations And Fuel Poor’, Says Ebell
President Trump’s fossil fuel policy U-turn will benefit developing nations and the fuel poor. That’s according to Myron Ebell, former Head of President Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Transition Team, who told ELN he expected the President to follow through on his promise to pull out of the Paris Agreement. Speaking at a press conference earlier today, he said: “President Trump promised during the campaign that the US would withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty, so I assume he will do that. He seems very intent on keeping his promises so I have no reason to think that he won’t. “I think that this is a very hopeful sign for the world. Not only is the US changing direction but I think it offers hope for a brighter future for people all around the world particularly those in developing countries who do not have access to modern energy or have very limited access to modern energy.” Mr Ebell felt that despite criticism from environmentalists and even other governments, President Trump would not change his mind and was not worried about any economic fallout from the decision as he believes the markets will always drive investment. “If any new energy technology is better and cheaper than coal, oil and natural gas, the market will take care of it. You don’t need government action, you don’t need government policies – if wind and solar power or some other renewable technology becomes a better buy than fossil fuels, then they will come to dominate the market quite quickly. That’s the way free markets work.” Full post
— gReader Pro…
Warmist Ross Gelbspan hypes: Internal account of ‘end of the world’ inside EPA from career worker
Ross Gelbspan’s “Heat is Online” 1/26 Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/HeatisOnline/posts/1298197716890195 – Russell Cook
For those wondering if what’s going on inside the EPA is as bad as it sounds, here’s an account someone inside the agency gave to a friend: (1/26/17)
“So I work at the EPA and yeah it’s as bad as you are hearing:
The entire agency is under lockdown, the website, facebook, twitter, you name it is static and can’t be updated. All reports, findings, permits and studies are frozen and not to be released. No presentations or meetings with outside groups are to be scheduled.
Any Press contacting us are to be directed to the Press Office which is also silenced and will give no response.
All grants and contracts are frozen from the contractors working on Superfund sites to grad school students working on their thesis.
We are still doing our work, writing reports, doing cancer modeling for pesticides hoping that this is temporary and we will be able to serve the public soon. But many of us are worried about an ideologically-fueled purging and if you use any federal data I advise you gather what you can now.
We have been told the website is being reworked to reflect the new administration’s policy.
Feel free to copy and paste, you all pay for the government and you should know what’s going on. I am posting this as a fellow citizen and not in any sort of official capacity.”…
Watch out, Mr. President. The environmentalists are coming for you « Hot Air
…
posted at 8:31 pm on January 30, 2017 by Jazz Shaw
Donald Trump has been put on notice. (This is the… what? The 7,256th time he’s been put on notice?) The nation’s environmental activists aren’t going to take his regulatory and administrative changes without a fight. They’re lining up their legal teams and getting ready to tie the White House up in lawsuits such as they’ve never seen. Or at least so they say. (Associated Press)
The night before Donald Trump’s inauguration, five environmental lawyers filed a federal court brief defending an Obama administration clean-water rule that the new president and his Republican allies have targeted for elimination, considering it burdensome to landowners.
The move served as a warning that environmentalists, facing a hostile administration and a Republican-dominated Congress, are prepared to battle in court against what they fear will be a wave of unfavorable policies concerning climate change, wildlife protection, federal lands and pollution.
Advocacy groups nationwide are hiring more staff lawyers. They’re coordinating with private attorneys and firms that have volunteered to help. They’re reviewing statutes, setting priorities and seeking donations.
Let’s review, because this seems to be the marching orders. They are:
- Reviewing statutes
- Setting priorities
- Seeking donations
Yes, you need to get that “seeking donations” clause in there early, don’t you? Not to worry. I’m sure the President has taken notice and will soon be reconsidering his plans in the face of such a robust #Resist movement. What mere mortal could stand up to that hash tag?
Judge tosses out ‘defense of planet’ in climate activist’s trial
A Washington-state judge has left climate activists steaming after he ruled the ‘necessity defense’ couldn’t be used in the trial of an oil-pipeline saboteur. Ken Ward, an extreme activist and co-founder of Climate Disobedience Center, argued before Judge Michael E. Rickert he broke the law to “save the planet.” That didn’t play well with the Skagit County judge who also said he acknowledges there is a great deal of controversy over whether #Climate Change even exists.
Rickert said the “extent of what we’re doing to ourselves and our climate and our planet, there’s great controversy over that.” Those comments came after Ward presented a “necessity defense” in court, arguing that he was justified in his actions due to the “grave threat of climate change.” The judge is now coming under fire from activists for blocking the unusual defense, who argue the ‘#Science is settled’ and that the courts should recognize this consensus.…
Green movement ‘greatest threat to freedom’, says Trump advise
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/30/green-movement-greatest-threat-freedom-says-trump-adviser-myron-ebell?CMP=share_btn_tw…
‘Death knell’ for EPA climate regs: Trump’s new order could kill EPA’s Clean Power Plan
A new presidential order to slash regulations may sound the death knell for the EPA’s controversial Clean Power Plan.
President #Donald Trump has issued a new executive order that could literally kill the EPA’s Clean Power Plan and roll back onerous #Climate Change regulations. It directs federal agencies to eliminate two regulations for every new one that gets passed. It also sets a regulatory budget for next year to zero dollars. Trump said this new order would be the “largest ever cut by far in terms in regulation.” Trump has given agencies the authority to decide what rules they want to roll back before the White House reviews them. There calling it the “one in, two out” rule.
The latest order would ostensibly cut many of the onerous regulations laid down by former EPA chief Gina McCarthy. Many were rolled out just weeks before Inauguration Day while others have been percolating through the legal system as individual states and industry sue the federal government for overreach. Trump said clean air and water were his first priority, but the environmental rule-making has gotten out of control.
Obama’s agencies push flurry of ‘midnight’ actions http://politi.co/2gxaxzB | Getty