NOAA declares current El Niño stronger than 1997-98 event, then says ‘record’ warm temperatures have little to do with it
NOAA declares current El Niño stronger than 1997-98 event, then says record warm temperatures have little to do with it
From the department of ENSO denial, “the Brady Bunch” and NOAA’s weather.gov comes this ridiculous statement: Was El Niño solely responsible for the record warm winter for the contiguous United States? No, but for some areas, like the northern U.S., the El Niño likely played a role. We know that other factors including climate patterns in […]
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Climatologist Dr. Tim Ball: Computer Models Can’t Work
Computer Models Can’t Work
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2016/03/computer-models-cant-work.html
Dr Tim Ball writing for TheRebel:MediaDr Tim points out a 2008 statement by Tim Palmer, climate modeler at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England in New Scientist:I don’t want to undermine the IPCC, but the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain.Delegates at Paris Climate Conference were all led to believe the long-term predictions were possible and accurate.Tim Ball then wrote:With global climate models, it is worse because the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) leave out major mechanisms. They acknowledged one of the limitations in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) when they wrote:In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Nobody provided that quote at the recent Paris Climate Conference. They were all led to believe the long-term predictions were possible and accurate. Dr Tim then points out that the models are mathematical models “with numbers and formulae representing data and mechanisms.”Oceans cover 70 percent and land 30 percent of the Earth’s surface. There is essentially no weather data for approximately 85 percent of the globe.Virtually none for the 70 percent that is an ocean and of the 30 percent land surface, there are very few stations for the 19 percent mountains, 20 percent deserts, 20 percent boreal forest, 20 percent grasslands and 6 percent tropical rain forest.There is so little data that for many parts of the world they use a single station as representative of a 1200 km radius.Read more at TheRebel:Media
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Analysis Finds No Correlation Between Glacier Melt And CO2, Melting Much Slower Today Than 1930s!
Analysis Finds No Correlation Between Glacier Melt And CO2, Melting Much Slower Today Than 1930s!
Are CO2 Emissions Driving Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise? By guest writer Kenneth Richard According to the below graph (Fig. 2 a) found in Gregory et al., 2013 in Journal of Climate (“Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts?”), there was a very substantial increase in the glacier and ice sheet melt contribution to sea level rise in the early 20th century, reaching up to 2 mm/year sea level rise equivalent. Source: Gregory et al., 2013 in Journal of Climate In recent years, the documented rise in sea levels contributed from glacier and ice sheet melt has not come close to reaching the high levels attained during the 1920s and 1930s period as documented by Gregory et al., 2013. For example according to Shepherd et al., 2012 (see below), the total ice sheet melt contribution from the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland (GIS) ice sheets combined was 0.59 mm/year (~2.3 inches per century) during the 1992-2011 period and the total ice sheet or glacier melt from all other land sources (not the AIS or GIS) was 0.41 mm/year (~1.6 inches per century) for 2003 to 2010 according to Jacob et al., 2012 (see below). Together, the total melt contribution from global land ice was about 1 mm/year (~4 inches per century) through the first decade of the 21st century, which is still well below the melt rates achieved during the 1920s and 1930s. Interestingly, during the 1920s to 1930s period of very high glacier melt rate contributions to sea level rise, human CO2 emissions were flat and only averaged about 1 GtC/year (see graph below). In contrast, during the 1990s to 2010/2011 period, CO2 emissions rates reached 6 to 9 GtC/year. Image: www.naturesconfluence.com/uploads.png Unanswered question If anthropogenic CO2 emissions are truly driving ice sheet and glacier melt contributions to sea level rise, why was the melt contribution significantly higher during the 1920s and 1930s when CO2 emissions rates were flat and about 1/6th to 1/9th of what they’ve been in recent years? References: Shepherd et al., 2012: sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183 “Since 1992, the polar ice sheets [Antarctica and Greenland] have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.” Jacob et al., 2012: www.nature.com/nature/journal/v482/n7386/abs/nature10847.html “Here we show that GICs [glaciers and ice caps], …
It was ‘Earth Hour’, celebrate energy!
It’s Earth Hour tonight, celebrate energy!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/19/its-earth-hour-tonight-celebrate-energy/
Normally I write a blog post far in advance for this . This year due to it being so “high profile” in the news,,I simply forgot. Oh well. My sister is celebrating it at her house by making full use of incandescent lighting. Dr. Roy Spencer nores this on Facebook : In honor of Earth […]
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