The IPCC doesn’t believe its own models. The 1.5C ambitious target = 400ppm. We’re already there!

The IPCC doesn’t believe its own models. The 1.5C ambitious target = 400ppm. We’re already there!

Apparently we want to set Earth’s climate control knob at 1.5C above the Little Ice Age. If the IPCC is right, we can use cars, hairdryers and air-conditioners to do it. All we need to know is equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and then we can work out the right atmospheric level of CO2 to aim at. Easy, right? Now I don’t believe the IPCC has it all right, but the IPCC believes the IPCC, and therefore they’ve done this calculation. It’s what the whole Paris convention was for, eh? But the answers turn out to be a bit surprising. Basically, if the climate modelers are right, and equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3C, the CO2 concentration we need to aim for is … wait… 400 ppm. How many years have we got to change the whole “human emissions” equilibrium and discover 100% clean energy? Answer: No years. If CO2 is the dominant climate driver, we are already at the “max” set point that 40,000 people in Paris just decided was the holy grail new ambitious target. Turn off the lights, stop the planes, get on your bike. The warming is in the can already. Bear in mined that it is “equilibrium” […]Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)

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German Magazine Süddeutsche calls Morano ‘one of the most powerful climate skeptics’

Marc Morano, one of the most powerful “climate skeptics” who openly confesses to himself to be a scientist. But: “I play a TV.”

The documentary filmmaker Robert Kenner shows in “Merchants of Doubt”, know how masterfully exploit the business of the doubt for their own purposes today the large corporations and political think tanks.…

Study: East Antarctic Ice Sheet has stayed frozen for 14 million years – ‘Did not experience significant melting…when CO2 concentrations rivaled what they are today’

The work adds new support for the idea that the EAIS did not experience significant melting even during the Pliocene, a period from 3 to 5 million years ago, when carbon dioxide concentrations rivaled what they are today.

“The Pliocene is sometimes thought to be an analog to what Earth will be like if global warming continues,” said Jane K. Willenbring, an assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science in Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences. “This gives us some hope that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet could be stable in today’s and future climate conditions.”

By offering support for the idea that the EAIS has been largely stable during the last 14 million years, the research offers some hope that a massive collapse of the ice sheet, and associated sea level rise of tens of meters, may not be imminent.…

‘Why Climate Change Won’t Matter in 20 Years’ – ‘The perilous business of predicting the future’

Why Climate Change Won’t Matter in 20 Years
Secretary Kerry speaks at the climate conference in Paris.

December 18, 2015 7:11 PM

The perilous business of predicting the future. Last week, powerful men from all over the world finished negotiating a new climate deal — the “Paris Agreement.” France’s foreign minister, the host of the “COP21” climate conference, called the plan an “historic turning point” in the battle against global warming. Our representative, John Kerry, called it “a victory for the planet.” The deal sets various goals for 2023, and for 2050 through 2100. It is absurd to think that the world’s foreign ministers can intelligently discuss what the world’s climate, industry, transportation, or energy markets will look like in 2023 — much less 2050 or 2100. Consider that 2023 is eight years from now. Eight years ago, did anyone at COP21 know Uber was coming? Did any of those foreign ministers know how popular drones would become? That new supersonic passenger planes would be in development? That four different private companies would be launching space flights? That two companies would be going forward with tests of “hyper-loop” transportation?

Now: you tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it’s even worth thinking about. Our [emissions] models just carry the present into the future. They’re bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives it a moment’s thought knows it.

In 1900, the John Kerrys of the world might have been talking about global horse-manure accords, but a few bright-eyed non-bureaucrats had an idea of the direction transport was moving:

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