There’s very good reason to believe 2.0 degrees is closer to the truth, as atmospheric temperatures, measured both by satellites and weather balloons, show no significant warming in the last 21 years. When this year’s temperatures are finally in (which will no doubt be reported before the end of the year as fuel for the Paris hype), surface temperatures are likely to show a marginally significant warming in the past two decades, thanks in large part to the currently raging El Niño.
Consequently, the U.N.’s estimate of 2.2 degrees of warming between in this century has to get knocked down by a bit less than 40 percent. Add the resultant warming of 1.4 degrees Celsius to the 0.6 degrees Celsius the U.N. says has already happened, and the total warming to 2100 works out to a cool 2.0 degrees Celsius, or precisely the goal of the 1992 treaty.
Nature, by refusing to warm in the fashion assumed in the U.N.’s calculations, and capitalism, in the form of free markets selling shale-derived natural gas, have already done for us what the U.N. says we must do.