they’ve put a big target on some very specific states.
North Dakota would have been required to cut emissions just 10.6 percent to comply with the draft rule, the least of any state; it will have to cut emissions 44.9 percent to comply with the final rule, the most of any state except for similarly fossil-fueled Montana and South Dakota. Coal-rich Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana were also among the biggest losers in the revised plan. Meanwhile, the states that are already greening their grid—led by Washington, Oregon and New York—were the biggest winners in the final rule.
That is a radical change. The EPA acknowledged in the plan that it “rectifies what would have been an inefficient, unintended outcome of putting the greater reduction burden on lower-emitting sources and states.” As EPA air quality chief Janet McCabe explained to me in an interview: “We got a lot of comments making the same point you did.” But it hasn’t gotten attention, perhaps because coal-state politicians cried wolf so loudly about the draft. It’s the result of a decision to calculate emissions according to a uniform measurement for every power plant rather than a weirdly calibrated analysis of what’s reasonable for individual states.
Think about that for a moment. North Dakota, under the original plan, would have had to reduce emissions by 10.6 percent over the roll out period to be in compliance. That’s a big cut, but with enough advance notice it would have been doable according to most industry analysts. Now, however, with one slip of the pen between the original draft and the final rules, the shale oil rich state will have to slash emissions by almost 45%. The same situation hits their neighbors in South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Kentucky, Indiana and West Virgina. I wonder what else those states have in common?
But at least this new plan will wean us off of that dirty old coal, right? According to the Clean Power Rules… not so much.
But the big question about the plan is whether it will accelerate America’s ongoing shifts away from coal and towards wind and solar. The answer, according to the plan itself, is no. Its targets are “fully consistent with the recent changes and current trends in electricity generation, and as a result, would by no means entail fundamental redirection of the energy sector.”