Morano speaks: Heartland Climate Skeptics Summit Comes to DC this week!
…Climate Statistics Prof rips climate model claims: Certain Trade War over Uncertain Models — a response to Professor William Nordhaus,
June 8, 2015: Certain Trade War over Uncertain Models — a response to Professor William Nordhaus, sent to the New York Review of Books.
June 5, 2015
Letter to the Editor, New York Review of Books:
William Nordhaus must really be convinced that a catastrophe will unfold if, as the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts, industrial emissions of carbon dioxide raise the concentration in the atmosphere of this generally beneficial warming gas from four hundredths of one percent to eight hundredths of one percent over the next 100 years (A New Solution: The Climate Club, June 4, 2015).
After all, Professor Nordhaus is willing to start a global trade war by forming a “Climate Club” of governments who agree to place heavy tariffs on the products of governments who refuse to join them in sharply restricting their emissions. (One hopes that the Club would exempt Africa from this trade war, since life expectancy there hovers in the mid-50’s, and at present only carbon-based energy can deliver electricity to the 75 percent of homes that currently lack it.)
What is the basis for Professor Nordhaus’ conviction? Like the UN, President Obama, and members of the Democratic Party as a rule, it’s the models: “Scientists are increasingly confident that the basic results of climate modeling are accurate. Climate models calculate that past emissions have contributed to warming of almost one degree centigrade over the last century, with rapid continued warming projected over the present century and beyond.” Professor Nordhaus claims that there have been “disruptions” of the climate to date due to this tiny warming, and that there are “potential dangers” to come.
As someone who has helped students in math modeling and statistics classes sort through these sorts of hypotheses over the past decade, I cannot share Professor Nordhaus’ certainty on either the causes or the effects of the warming to date and the predicted warming to come. The models do not, in fact, attribute the recorded 1.2 degree Fahrenheit (or .7 degree Celsius) rise in temperature since around 1880 entirely to human-based emissions of warming gasses. (And remember, this is a very rough estimate of the rise, since methods of producing a “global mean temperature” have varied widely in global coverage and accuracy over this period.)
Fully half of the rise came before human-based emissions were large enough to have much effect. The computer models …
Global Warming: ‘The Theory that Predicts Nothing and Explains Everything’
they’re signaling for everyone else to get on board.
One question raised by the research is whether other global temperature datasets will see similar adjustments. One, kept by the Hadley Center of the UK Met Office, appears to support the global warming “hiatus” narrative—but then, so did NOAA’s dataset up until now. “Before this update, we were the slowest rate of warming,” said Karl. “And with the update now, we’re the leaders of the pack. So as other people make updates, they may end up adjusting upwards as well.”
This is going to be the new party line. “Hiatus”? What hiatus? Who are you going to believe, our adjustments or your lying thermometers?
I realize the warmists are desperate, but they might not have thought through the overall effect of this new “adjustment” push. We’ve been told to take very, very seriously the objective data showing global warming is real and is happening—and then they announce that the data has been totally changed post hoc. This is meant to shore up the theory, but it actually calls the data into question.
As they say, hindsight is 20/20. It’s a lot easier to tweak your theory to make it a better fit to the data, or in this case, to tweak the way the data is measured and analyzed in order to make it better fit your theory. And then you proclaim how amazing it is that your theory “explains” the data.…
NASA Scientists Warn Pope Against Global Warming Alarmism
http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/08/retired-nasa-scientists-warn-pope-against-global-warming-alarmism/…