April 8, 2015 – Climate Depot

According to the 1990 IPCC Report, an additional 0.5C global warming would need to be observed before natural variability could be distinguished with high confidence from an “enhanced greenhouse effect” due to man-made emissions. However, as an article today at Reason.com points out, “…enhanced greenhouse warming above the noise of natural climate variability would not yet have crossed over the benchmark (+0.5°C) set by the IPCC back in 1990. Interesting.” Satellite data indicates only ~0.2C warming since 1990, considerably short of the 0.5C threshold the IPCC set for itself in 1990 to determine whether additional global warming was within natural variability. The activist-IPCC of today conveniently discarded these goalposts, and unjustifiably claims (without any statistical basis) 95% confidence that “most” global warming since 1950 is man-made. RSS satellite data show only 0.2C global warming since 1990, considerably short of the 1990 IPCC threshold of an additional 0.5C warming to detect an anthropogenic “enhanced greenhouse effect” Warming since the beginning of the HADCRU3 global temperature record in 1850 is only ~0.8C, short of the 1990 IPCC threshold [1C since the late 19th century] to detect an anthropogenic “enhanced greenhouse effect” Detection of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming: What the IPCC Said Back In 1990 Changing goal posts or better science? Ronald Bailey|Apr. 8, 2015 11:03 am Reason.com DreamstimeMany commentators in response to my article last week, “What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?,” asserted that the climate models had failed in their predictions with regard to trends in hurricanes (cyclones), tornadoes, and droughts. So I did an admittedly quick scan of all five of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s physical sciences reports to see what they actually said. As far as I can tell, all of the reports admit that the observational data do not definitively show any trends with regard to those particular aspects of climate. With regard to model outputs concerning those trends, the IPCC reports characterize them using tentative terminology such as “encouraging” back in 1990 and “medium evidence” and “medium agreement” in matching observational trends in the most recent report. In general, the models are not predicting a worsening trend in hurricanes, tornadoes, and droughts, at least in the short run. In any case, I came across the chapter, “Detection of the Greenhouse Gas Effect in the Observations” in the …

Norwegian Ski Resorts Extending Season Due to Record Snow

http://iceagenow.info/2015/04/norwegian-ski-resorts-extending-season/

“Here in southern Norway the ski slopes are still in operation and some are extending the season till May due to record snow,” says reader. “They are reporting record earnings too. Normally they close after Easter holidays.” http://www.aftenbladet.no/nyheter/lokalt/sirdal/Apne-skitrekk-helt-til-mai-3669693.html “And the Folgefonna Summerski Center is not even able to open on May 1st because of record amounts of snow, over 8 meters some places,” the reader continues. “This slope is located on a glacier and is only open in high summer, from May to August.” http://www.friflyt.no/Ski/Ny-snoerekord-paa-Folgefonna Note: It will be interesting to see if the Folgefonna Glacier starts growing again. “Hardanger Folgefonna-Gletscher 10″ by Zairon – Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons – http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hardanger_Folgefonna-Gletscher_10.JPG#/media/File:Hardanger_Folgefonna-Gletscher_10.JPG According to Wikipedia, Folgefonna is a collective term for three glaciers: Nordre (northern) Folgefonna, with an area of 26 sq km (10 sq mi) Midtre (central) Folgefonna, with an area of 11 sq km (4.2 sq mi) Søndre (southern) Folgefonna, with an area of 167 sq km (64 sq mi). The largest outflow glaciers from Folgefonna are Blomstølskardbreen, Bondhusbreen, and Buarbreen. Blomstølskardbreen, on the southern end of Folgefonna, has changed very little since 1960. Bondhusbreen and Buerbreen further north were growing in the 1990s, but have been retreating since the year 2000. I hope this reader keeps us apprised as to whether or not these glaciers start growing again.

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