New paper finds cooling, not warming, of mid- to upper troposphere increases likelihood of tropical cyclones – Published in Journal of Climate
New paper finds cooling, not warming, of mid- to upper troposphere increases likelihood of tropical cyclones
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/new-paper-finds-cooling-not-warming-of.html
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that cooling, not warming, of the mid- to upper troposphere increases the development of tropical cyclones. The mid- to upper troposphere mythical “hot spot” is predicted to warm the most from AGW, but despite millions of weather balloon and satellite measurements, has not been found in observations. Thus, if the mid- to upper troposphere missing “hot spot” ever does form, this paper implies that the probability of tropical cyclones would decrease, not increase as claimed by alarmists. In addition, global warming decreases the temperature gradients between the poles and the equator. Since temperature gradients drive all “extreme weather,” global warming tends to decrease “extreme weather,” not increase as claimed by alarmists. The paper thus corroborates many others finding that if global warming resumes, it is expected to decrease tropical cyclones and hurricanes in the future. Note the paper refers to changing the “parameterized convection” in the climate model, which means that the model cannot directly simulate the physics of convection [due to low resolution] and thus uses fudge factors or “parameterizations” to simulate real convection, as do all IPCC climate models. Here’s why and here. Journal of Climate 2014 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00104.1 Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model Young-Kwon Lim1,2 Siegfried D. Schubert1 Oreste Reale1,3 Myong-In Lee5 Andrea M. Molod1,4Max J. Suarez1,3 1 Bldg. 33, code 610.1, 8800 Greenbelt Rd., Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, 20771 2 Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, I. M. Systems Group 3 Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association (USRA) 4 ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 5 Ulsan Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, South Korea Abstract The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25° horizontal grid spacing. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more …
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