Happy Anniversary: 1 October May Mark 18 Years Without Global Warming

The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant. –Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 5 July 2005
 
 
Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. -Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 7 May 2009

2014 will probably be in the top five warmest, but at the moment it will probably not turn out to be warmer than 2010. It is impossible for it to beat 2010 by a statistically significant margin, even if we define that as only one standard deviation above the decadal mean. Even if 2014 does beat 2010 it will only be by a statistically insignificant margin and well within the inter-annual error bars. In all probability 2014 will continue the global surface temperature standstill in a statistically perfect manner. When will the global surface annual temperature start to rise out of the error bars of the past 18 years? –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Forum, 28 September 2014

It’s fair to say that this pause is something of an embarrassment to many in the climate research community, since their computer models failed to indicate that any such thing could happen. Just how long the temperature pause must last before it would falsify the more catastrophic versions of man-made climate change obviously remains an open question for many researchers. For the time being, most are betting that it will get real hot real fast when the hiatus ends. –Ronald Bailey, Reason Online, 9 September 2014

Abandon the 2°C Temperature target, says Nature commentary — Not ‘scientifically meaningful’

Abandon the 2°C target, says Nature commentary — not ‘scientifically meaningful’

http://junkscience.com/2014/10/01/abandon-the-2c-target-says-nature-commentary-not-scientifically-meaningful

We’ve been saying this for years. First, no one and nothing lives at average global temperature — it is a meaningless metric. Second, as Climategate explicitly revealed, the 2°C target was simply pulled out of thin air and not based on any sort of science. The media release is below. Ditch the 2 warming goal […]

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‘Blatant nonsense’: Media hyped walrus climate scare stories debunked – Claims recycled year-after-year – A Climate Depot Rebuttal

Climate Depot Special Report

The October 1, 2014 Associated Press article linking the walrus gathering to melting sea ice, lacks historical perspective and contains serious spin that would lead readers to erroneous conclusions about walruses and the climate. [Update: Zoologist Dr. Susan Crockford weighs in: Mass haulouts of Pacific walrus and stampede deaths are not new, not due to low ice cover – ‘The attempts by WWF and others to link this event to global warming is self-serving nonsense that has nothing to do with science…this is blatant nonsense and those who support or encourage this interpretation are misinforming the public.’ And Update #2 is here.]

First off, walruses are not endangered. According to the New York Times, “the Pacific walrus remains abundant, numbering at least 200,000 by some accounts, double the number in the 1950s.”

The AP article titled, “35,000 walrus come ashore in northwest Alaska”, claims “the gathering of walrus on shore is a phenomenon that has accompanied the loss of summer sea ice as the climate has warmed.” The AP even includes the environmental group World Wildlife Fund, to ramp up climate hype. “It’s another remarkable sign of the dramatic environmental conditions changing as the result of sea ice loss,” said Margaret Williams, managing director of the group’s Arctic program, by phone from Washington, D.C.

Pacific Walrus_Davi

But the AP is recycling its own climate stories on walruses. See: 2009: AP: Walruses Gather as Ice Melts in the Arctic Sea (Sep 17 2009) Also see fact check on “melting” Arctic sea ice. See: Paper: ‘Myth of arctic meltdown’ : Stunning satellite images show ice cap has grown by an area twice the size of Alaska in two years – Despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now

[Update Via Bishop Hill website: ‘A look at Cryosphere Today’s animation of historic Arctic sea ice and as far as I can see there is rarely any sea ice over the Chukchi Sea in the summer. This story is ecodrivel. We know that large haulouts take place in the Bering and Chukchi seas. We know that walruses have always visited Point Lay and that the sea ice at the time is far enough away that they haulouts must have been on the land.’]

The media and green groups are implying that walrus hanging out by the tens of thousands is a new …

Extreme weather failing to follow ‘global warming’ predictions: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, Wildfires, all see no trend or declining trends

Climate Depot Round Up:  ”Despite the fact that climate activists have changed renamed ‘global warming’ into ‘climate change’ and then to climate ‘disruption’ and ‘global weirding’, the weather and climate is failing to cooperate. Below is a round up of the latest on extreme weather data and studies.”

Extreme Weather: 

Fine print in Obama’s climate report breaks from warmist narrative — Admits no trends in droughts, storms, tornadoes and hail! – After cranking up the fear of increasing droughts, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, the report offers some little disclaimers admitting to unsettled science: But the fine print that few will ever read acknowledges the real uncertainties of something as complex as the planet’s atmosphere. – “There has been no universal trend in the overall extent of drought across the continental U.S. since 1900,” the authors observe. We also learn that “trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively.”

New paper unable to link 2013 extreme weather of droughts, heavy rain & storms to AGW
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. ‘the bottom line on this new NOAA special report: If you are attributing any extreme other than heat waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change, you are on weak (or worse) scientific ground.”

Hurricanes: 

3,264 Days Without a Major (Cat 3 +) Hurricane Strike – ‘Nearly 9 years…the last being Wilma in October, 2005′ – Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: As of today (October 1) it’s been nearly 9 years since a major hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) has struck the U.S., the last being Wilma in October, 2005. Remember the 2005 hurricane season? Landfalling hurricanes right and left. Katrina! This was going to be the new normal in a Global Warming world. Then the bottom dropped out of tropical activity.

named-storms-climatology

Tornadoes: 

U.S. Tornado Count Plummeting to Record Low Levels Three Consecutive Years

Possible record low number of tornadoes in Oklahoma

Wildfires: 

Colorado WILDFIRES NOT MORE SEVERE since 1800s, says ‘massive’ University of Colorado study reveals – Funded by NSF 

US Forest Fires Near Historic Lows: ‘Burn acreage is much less than half of normal’ according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center

2014 – Quietest Fire Season Of The Decade according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center data

Real Science: ‘Burn acreage so far this year in the US is lowest in a decade, less

3,264 Days Without a Major (Cat 3 +) Hurricane Strike – ‘Nearly 9 years…the last being Wilma in October, 2005’

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer reports: 

3,264 Days Without a Major Hurricane Strike

October 1st, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Who would have predicted it? As of today (October 1) it’s been nearly 9 years since a major hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) has struck the U.S., the last being Wilma in October, 2005.

Remember the 2005 hurricane season? Landfalling hurricanes right and left. Katrina! This was going to be the new normal in a Global Warming world.

Then the bottom dropped out of tropical activity.

As the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season slowly winds down, here the latest tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center:
two_atl_2d0

Pretty dead. The number of named storms as of today continues below normal:
named-storms-climatology

One might explain the current drought in tropical systems on El Nino, except even that has mostly fizzled compared to early predictions.

While a few “experts” claim to “see the fingerprint” of human caused climate change in the latest severe weather events (which, paradoxically, haven’t increased), it’s good to take a step back and point out that the Emperor’s Tarot card readers have no clothes.

 …

People’s climate march wants to change the system, not the weather

People’s climate march wants to change the system, not the weather

http://www.cfact.org/2014/10/01/peoples-climate-march-wants-to-change-the-system-not-the-weather/

Marita Noon shatters any illusion that the New York Climate March was about anything other than destroying the capitalist system and replacing it with a totalitarian, top-down socialist state. As one commenter said, “These people are defined by what they hate, and a big part of what they hate is capitalism.”

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‘Climate change created ISIS’ is now #49 on the ‘official list’ of things supposedly caused by global warming

‘Climate change created ISIS’ is now #49 on the ‘official list’ of things supposedly caused by global warming

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/climate-change-created-isis-is-now-49-on-the-official-list-of-things-supposedly-caused-by-global-warming

Jeff Dunetz aka The ‘YidWithLid’ writes: Latest Climate Idiocy: Global Warming Created ISIS In recent weeks the Obama administration has blamed President Bush and/or the intelligence community for the creation of ISIS, others have blamed President Obama and his reluctance to get involved in another Middle East conflict, but apparently both positions are wrong. According […]

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