Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry warns of decades of possible global cooling: Suggests the ‘current cool phase will continue until the 2030s’

Climate Depot Exclusive

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry, who was until recently the Chair of School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology, detailed her conversion from a scientist who accepted the global warming “consensus” on man-made global warming to one who now openly challenges it. Curry spoke at the National Press Club in Washington DC on September 16 at an event sponsored by the George C. Marshall Institute.

[Update: Curry has full text of her speech with PowerPoint slides here.]

Curry warned of possible global cooling. “We also see a cooling period starting around the turn of the (21st) century.” She also suggested that the “current cool phase will continue until the 2030s.” [Also see: Scientists and Studies predict ‘imminent global COOLING’ ahead – Drop in global temps ‘almost a slam dunk’]

“Even on the timescale of decade or two, we could end up be very surprised on how the climate plays out and it might not be getting warmer like the UN IPCC says,” Curry noted.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen. All other things being equal – yes — more carbon dioxide means warmer, but all other things are never equal,” she emphasized.

“We just don’t know. I think we are fooling ourselves to think that CO2 control knob really influences climate on these decadal or even century time scales,” she added.

“I view the [climate change] problem as a ‘big wicked mess,” Curry told the crowd at luncheon assembled. “The main problem is we are putting the policy cart before the scientific horse,” Curry said.

Curry believes the United Nations has distorted the research of global warming and shifted too much on carbon dioxide as the “control knob” of the climate system. “Climate scientists have focused primarily on greenhouse gases,” Curry noted, linking that focus on the IPCC’s focus and the funding streams available to scientists who focus on CO2.

“Other factors relatively neglected,” Curry declared.

Slide1

Curry’s PowerPoint

“The early articulation of a preferred policy option by the UN framework marginalized research on broader issues surrounding climate change and resulted in an overconfident assessment of the importance of greenhouse gases in future climate change and stifled development of a broad range of policy options.”

UN Treaty Futility

Curry also dismissed the UN global climate treaty process. “Relying on global international treaty to solve the problem — which I …

Spooky Pause…Solar Activity Now Has Leading German (Warmist) Science Journalist Asking About ‘Threat Of A Little Ice Age’

Spooky Pause…Solar Activity Now Has Leading German (Warmist) Science Journalist Asking About “Threat Of A Little Ice Age”

http://notrickszone.com/2014/09/14/spooky-pause-solar-activity-now-has-leading-german-warmist-science-journalist-asking-about-threat-of-a-little-ice-age/

Science journalist Michael Odenwald at the German news weekly FOCUS used to be quite the warmist, and maybe he still is. But his latest article here tells us that he may be opening up to other climate change explanations: natural factors such as solar activity. Solar activity has quieted over the last years. Photo image: NASA Odenwald’s article focusses on the sun’s recent solar activity, noting that the current cycle has only been about as half as active as normal and that the “sun in the second half of the 20th century was unusually active over several cycles.” He then notes how the earth’s climate has suspiciously stopped warming since the sun went quiet. “Our planet could cool down” Before citing the works of geophysicist Ilya Usoskin of the Finnish University Oulu, Odenwald writes: The current low activity of the cosmic oven has possible dramatic consequences for our planet: Our planet could cool down. Perhaps the quiet sun is hidden behind another phenomenon over which scientists have long been wondering about: At around the year 2000 global warming came to a halt.” Odenwald also informs readers that the high level of solar activity from 1950 bis 2009 indeed had been an outlier and that it is clear that “the global temperature, which has increased for more than 100 years, rose most strongly from 1975 to 2000. According to the IPCC the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012 in the northern hemisphere was the warmest in 1400 years. Roughly calculated it coincides with the most recent Grand Maximum.” Warnings of a little ice age Odenwald also writes that some climatologists believe “the real driver of climate change is our sun. Some are even warning of a new little ice age.”  

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‘Global warming likely to cause colder and snowier winters’, scientists say

http://www.aol.com/article/2014/09/15/global-warming-likely-to-cause-colder-and-snowier-winters/20962706/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl9%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D529696

Scientists now believe that global warming is to blame for extreme cold snaps in North America during the winter months – and that it will only keep happening.

The “polar vortex” that plunged Canada and the U.S. into historical cold last winter is said by researchers to have occurred because melting polar ice changes weather patterns, according to a study published earlier this month.

A team of Korean and American scientists asserted in a new study that the melting ice causes the northern jet stream (upper level air flow) to shift south and bring polar air with it.…

Researchers Find Major West Antarctic Glacier Melting from Geothermal Sources

Researchers Find Major West Antarctic Glacier Melting from Geothermal Sources

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/researchers-find-major-west-antarctic-glacier-melting-geothermal-sources/

Press Release from the University of Texas Researchers Find Major West Antarctic Glacier Melting from Geothermal Sources June 10, 2014 – AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable. The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts. This map shows the locations of geothermal flow underneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica that were identified with airborne ice-penetrating radar. The dark magenta triangles show where geothermal flow exceeds 150 milliwatts per square meter, and the light magenta triangles show where flow exceeds 200 milliwatts per square meter. Letters C, D and E denote high melt areas: in the western-most tributary, C; adjacent to the Crary mountains, D; and in the upper portion of the central tributaries, E. Credit: University of Texas Institute Geophysics. Using radar techniques to map how water flows under ice sheets, UTIG researchers were able to estimate ice melting rates and thus identify significant sources of geothermal heat under Thwaites Glacier. They found these sources are distributed over a wider area and are much hotter than previously assumed. The geothermal heat contributed significantly to melting of the underside of the glacier, and it might be a key factor in allowing the ice sheet to slide, affecting the ice sheet’s stability and its contribution to future sea level rise. The cause of the variable distribution of heat beneath the glacier is thought to be the movement of magma and associated volcanic activity arising from the rifting of the Earth’s crust beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Knowledge of the heat distribution beneath Thwaites Glacier …

Warmist analysis: How To Assess The Upcoming U.N. Climate Summit

Measuring Up: How To Assess The Upcoming U.N. Climate Summit

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/16/3566893/how-to-assess-un-climate-summit/

CREDIT: flickr/ United Nations Photo The September 23 U.N. climate summit in New York City is not an official U.N. negotiating session but in many ways it is more than that. While the official United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meetings have the potential to usher in bold treaties, they are also subject to bickering over minutia and watering down of expectations. The extensively hyped Conference of Parties (COP) in Copenhagen in 2009 boiled over with anticipation of a post-Kyoto protocol before it ended up simmering into mediocrity. The summit in NYC is all about building momentum and moving forward. Nearly five years after Copenhagen, a new set of world leaders, with new ideas about climate change and how to tackle it, will be leading the discussions — and looking for real change. With 15 months to go before the next potentially game-changing climate conference, COP Paris in late 2015, some 125 heads of state will descend on NYC for the climate summit. In conjunction with business executives, activist groups, and civil representatives, they are being encouraged to announce major initiatives to try and snowball the momentum-building discussion toward the next big meeting, COP Lima this December. These leaders represent a world of different interests, and must hope to find common ground between rich countries, island states, less developed countries, conservative states, oil wealthy kingdoms, and everything in between. While an all-encompassing treaty is not on the agenda, expectations are high. “I think we need to talk in terms of transformation, of change — it’s not business as usual with a bit of green attached,” U.N. climate envoy Mary Robinson recently said. “That won’t do it.” Commitments for the Paris summit are due next March, and Robinson said the statements by leaders at this gathering will give a good idea of the work that needs to be done between now and then. “I hope it will be a good deal more ambitious (than previous announcements), and open the way for further understanding that we need pressure and urgency of real commitments,” she said. Deliverables There are three main deliverables to look for coming out of the summit, according to Andrew Steer, President & CEO of the World Resources Institute (WRI). These include strong national statements and re-commitments to fighting climate change, the launch of important new initiatives, …

Real hockey stick finally located: Antarctic sea ice continues to blow through all-time record-high levels 5th year in a row

Real hockey stick finally located: Antarctic sea ice continues to blow through all-time record-high levels 5th year in a row

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/real-hockey-stick-finally-located.html

This marks the 5th year in a row that Antarctic sea ice extent has blown through prior all-time-high records, and the peak winter extent is probably still another few weeks away. From Sunshine Hours: The IPCC climate models, of which the IPCC has ad-hoc 95% confidence despite being falsified at 98%+ confidence levels, laughably predicted a big decline in Antarctic sea ice, larger than Arctic sea ice. Oh, and this hockey stick has also recently been discovered:

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Obama’s Lonely Climate Summit – world leaders are staying home

Obama’s Lonely Climate Summit – world leaders are staying home

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/16/obamas-lonely-climate-summit-world-leaders-are-staying-home/

Eric Worrall writes: The imminent climate summit in New York is rapidly turning into an utter embarrassment for President Obama and UN Secretary General Bank Ki-Moon, in addition to becoming a bit of a punishment round for national deputy leaders. Aussie PM Tony Abbott today defended his decision not to hop on an earlier flight…

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