New paper unexpectedly finds diverging trends in global temperature & radiative imbalance from greenhouse gases – Published in Geophysical Research Letters
New paper unexpectedly finds diverging trends in global temperature & radiative imbalance from greenhouse gases
A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the radiative imbalance from greenhouse gases at the top of the atmosphere has increased over the past 27 years while the rate of global warming has unexpectedly decreased or ‘paused’ over the past 15+ years.
This finding contradicts expectations from AGW theory of increased ‘heat trapping’ from increased greenhouse gases. However, the finding is consistent with radiosonde observations showing that outgoing longwave radiation to space from greenhouse gases has unexpectedly increased rather than decreased over the past 62 years, inconsistent with more heat being “trapped” in the mid-upper troposphere.
According to the authors, the radiative imbalance from 1985-1999 was less than from 2000-2012 during the ‘pause’ in global surface temperatures.
“Over the 1985-1999 period mean N [radiative imbalance] (0.34 ± 0.67 WM–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 WM–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000.”
The authors find that the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is correlated to natural variability including ENSO and volcanic eruptions:
“While the precise magnitude of [radiative imbalance] remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.”
However, Willis Eschenbach has shown radiative imbalances at the top of the atmosphere from the Pinatubo eruption have had essentially no effect on surface temperatures, which is observational evidence that emergent thermodynamic phenomena control temperature and the climate, rather than radiative imbalance from greenhouse gases at the top of the atmosphere.
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012Richard P. Allan, et al
AbstractCombining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth’s atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 WM–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 WM–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble …
New paper finds significantly more solar & less greenhouse gas climate forcing than IPCC claims over past 120 years – Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
New paper finds significantly more solar & less greenhouse gas climate forcing than IPCC claims over past 120 years
A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds the change in shortwave forcing from the Sun [0.76 W/m2 per decade] exceeded that of longwave forcing from greenhouse gases [0.64 W/m2 per decade] over the past 120 years in Potsdam, Germany, one of the few worldwide sites with sufficient long-term observations. The authors find water vapor alone was responsible for 3/4 of this change in longwave forcing, with only 25% of the longwave forcing [0.16W/m2 per decade, total 1.92 W/m2 over 120 years] attributable to all man-made greenhouse gases including CO2.
In contrast, the IPCC claims CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and other man-made greenhouse gases have produced a total ~2.7 W/m2 in longwave forcing since pre-industrial times, i.e. about 29% more radiative forcing than found by the long-term observations in this new paper. The shortwave forcing from the Sun after albedo/aerosols was +9.12 W/m2 over the 120 years, 9.7 times more than the IPCC claim of negative 1.05 W/m2 forcing from the Sun + aerosols since pre-industrial times.
According to the authors,
“Three-quarters of the increase in the long-wave flux was due to changes in the water content of the lower atmosphere; the remainder was attributed to increases in CO2 and other anthropogenic, radiatively active gases. Over the period radiative forcing in the short-wave flux slightly exceeded that in the long-wave but its effect on air temperature was much less as the climate sensitivity to atmospheric radiation, 0.187 °C per Wm−2, was three times greater than to short-wave global radiation. This anomalous finding, similar to that previously reported at two coastal sites, awaits explanation…”
This “anomalous finding” is quite a paradox, since “for [climate sensitivity] to be useful, the measure must be independent of the nature of the forcing (e.g. from greenhouse gases or solar variation).” Potential reasons for this anomaly include assumptions made to calculate longwave forcing [which was not directly measured] on the basis of pressure & humidity, and questionable blackbody assumptions.
In addition, the authors find no indication of a trend in precipitation amount or variability over the past 120 years, in contrast to alarmist claims.
The authors attribute the significant increase in specific humidity to a reduction in cloud cover and/or pollution [black carbon]:
“The significant increase in specific humidity measured at …
New paper finds Asian aerosols are not a valid excuse for the ‘pause’ in global warming
A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that Asian aerosol emissions do not explain the hiatus in global temperature over the past 15+ years. Chinese/Asian aerosols are one of the 12+ excuses for the ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming that have appeared in the scientific literature. According to the authors, the net global effects of changes in sulfate and black carbon aerosols over the past 15 years increased radiative forcing, which would increase rather than decrease warming.
According to the authors,
“Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years.
We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing.
In Asia, the Black Carbon warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian Black Carbon concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.”
Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996T. Kühn et alIncreases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years. We study the effect of sulphur and black carbon (BC) emission changes between 1996 and 2010 on the global energy balance. We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. In our simulations, the global-mean aerosol direct radiative effect changes by 0.06 W/m2 during 1996 to 2010, while the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is 0.42 W/m2. The rather large ERF arises mainly from changes in cloudiness, especially in Europe. In Asia, the BC warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian BC concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.…
Polar bears and melting ice: three facts that shouldn’t surprise you
If I was invited by USA TODAY to discuss how climate change is affecting polar bears now – summed up in three talking points – this is what I’d say. I’d use some meaningful images rather than cute pictures of cuddly bear cubs and I’d provide links to my work with references and details to back up my answers.
Compare my responses to those supplied by Steve Amstrup in his capacity as spokesperson for Polar Bears International (“Save our sea ice!”) to Jolie Lee at USA TODAY last week, who’s word is expected to be taken as gospel.
1. Disappearing population
Not disappearing – predicted to disappear, which is a different thing altogether.
In fact, biologists at the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group estimate that there must be more than 20,000-25,000 bears in the world, a number that hasn’t changed since 2001.
I say “more than 20,000-25,000” because a few large areas exist where polar bears live but have never been studied or counted, so the global estimate does not include those bears. Polar bears are also well distributed across available Arctic habitats, an accepted mark of a species in good health. [See more here, here, and here]
The computer-models that predicted two-thirds of the worlds polar bears will be gone by 2050 were based on assumptions made by Steve Amstrup regarding how polar bears will respond to predicted declines in sea ice. However, studies conducted since then have shown that many of these assumptions are wrong. It follows then, that the predictions of population decline cannot possibly be correct. [See more here, here, and here]
In addition, the two populations that appeared at one point to be declining due to summer sea ice loss (Western Hudson Bay, WHB and Southern Beaufort, SB) — triggering the 2008 ‘threatened with extinction’ classification in the USA — had serious issues with their population estimates. It now seems polar bears simply move around a bit as ice conditions change at the local level, which is what we would expect them to do. [See more here, here,and here]
Polar bears do most of their feeding on the ice during the spring and early summer (February to June) and the extent of ice in those seasons has declined very little over the last 35 years (see below).[More here]
Sea ice extent graphs for …
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: ‘Planet Is Going To Be Cooling Next 20 To 30 Years Because Of Natural Processes’
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “Planet Is Going To Be Cooling Next 20 To 30 Years Because Of Natural Processes”
Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at his WeatherBell Analytics site has posted the latest Saturday Summary.
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi. Photo credit: WeatherBell Analytics
Just before the 3-minute mark he comments on the general nonsense behind the claims that global warming causes more cold weather and on how John Holdren, senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology, “was mouthing off on how global warming was causing it to get so cold back in January”.
At the 3:08 mark Joe reiterates his long term forecast for global temperatures:
“I do think the planet is going to be cooling the next 20 to 30 years due to natural processes. But some of these explanations border on inane”
He then reminds viewers that those blaming the cold on warming “obviously do not make forecasts for a living“.
Trapped heat constantly AWOL
And already we see that the earth’s temperature has not risen in almost 18 years. This year’s once forecast “super El Nino” is failing to materialize, which raises the question as to where all “the missing heat” could possibly be lurking.
It’s turning out that the missing heat is wholly theoretical and exists only in climate models, and is nowhere to be observed in reality.
Predictions of it reappearing have failed over and over again.