Thursday, July 7, 2022
HomeLeft ColumnStatistician chills warming fears: The 'reduction in cold-related deaths actually dwarfs the...

Statistician chills warming fears: The ‘reduction in cold-related deaths actually dwarfs the rise in heat-related deaths!’


Let’s look at another headline, this one from February:

Yowza. Stay inside, stock up on ice cream, and blast the air-conditioning!

But lost in the rush to predict dire consequences from global warming, were two key nuggets of information: 1. There will be more deaths anyway as the population of the United Kingdom grows older. 2. The reduction in cold-related deaths actually dwarfs the rise in heat-related deaths!

Take a look at the original graphs from the research showing off heat deaths and cold deaths. Notice anything misleading? (Hint: take a look at the vertical axes.)

The axes on both plots had been arranged to make the numbers look more comparable than they really are!

On his blog, Spiegelhalter remade the graphs and combined them to more accurately reflect the data.

Looking at these graphs leads one to a different conclusion. “Overall, for any individual in the UK, the risk of a temperature-related death is expected to fall steadily due to climate change,” Spiegelhalter wrote.

Anytime you read an alarming headline where assessments of risk are involved, be skeptical. There could be a more nuanced story buried in the details.

(Image: Shutterstock)

- Advertisment -

Related Articles

Antarctica might go green say scientists (only 2km of ice and 50C of warming to go) More great journalism from The Guardian: Climate change is turning Antarctica green, say researchers Or maybe it isn’t. Check out the brave actual prediction:...

MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen’s talks in Prague

By Dr. Lubos Motl Richard Lindzen's talk in Prague Richard Lindzen, prof emeritus at MIT, is the most famous atmospheric physicist among the climate skeptics. I...

Study: Earth is becoming GREENER, not BROWNER due to climate change

Guest essay by Dr. Patrick J. Michaels It’s hard to say how many punny posts we came up with using those words when Carol...