John Holdren’s Bi-Polar Vortex, Part II – appeal filed
John Holdren’s Bi-Polar Vortex, Part II – appeal filed
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/20/john-holdrens-bi-polar-vortex-part-ii-appeal-filed
(part 1 is here) By Sam Kazman, CEI Back on June 6th, OSTP (the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy) officially declined to reexamine its highly-publicized January explanation for the extremely cold winter. According to that video, The Polar Vortex Explained In 2 Minutes, the likely culprit was global warming; this was supposedly […]…
Ocean Heat Content -Another simple evidence based rebuttal of claims that missing heat is being carried down to the bottom of the ocean
Ocean Heat Content -Another simple evidence based rebuttal of AGW
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2014/06/ocean-heat-content-another-simple.html
By Anthony CoxThe latest funny bit of science from the AGW world has been the assertion that the missing heat is being carried down to the bottom of the ocean. Leading lights of AGW science like England and Trenberth have both suggested the mechanism for this heat transfer to the bottom is wind. The absurdity of those positions are dealt with hereand here.But such obvious rebuttals of the science of AGW does not stop the alarmists from peddling their beliefs and mischief. In a recent online debate this graph was posted:The source of course is Cook’s SKS site and is highly misleading. How misleading it is revealed by Eric Skr on the same thread who has made some excellent points and posted some cogent graphs of Ocean Heat Content [OHC]. Eric noted this well-known NOAA graph was in Joules and not temperature:The vertical axis is clearly marked in Joules. Eric’s comment was: For the sake of discussion let’s accept the graph and all data as accurate. The lowest end of the graph is -10 Joules, the highest is +15 Joules. That gives us a 25 Joule delta. I see that they have scaled it at a factor of 10. 25 Joules converts to 0.01316412691165. We have to factor in the scale so we multiply by 10 and we come up with 0.1316412691165 – one tenth of a degree C between 1955 and 2014. Fabulous 1/10 of a degree over 50 years. Stunning amount of warming there.This is an excellent point and was noted by other astute commentators including Lucia at The Blackboard. Lucia also converted the Joule graph into temperature:That is astounding. Temperature at 2000 meters where England’s and Trenberth’s missing heat is supposed to be has gone up 0.09C since before 1960. Some missing heat. This is why the alarmists always post OHC graphs in Joules which have such bigger and scarier numbers. And that’s assuming the measurements are correct. Eric’s other valid point was that accurate measurements of OHC have really only been around since the ARGO measurements began in 2004.Using 2004 as a base Eric has been busy producing graphs of the OHC in different areas of the world at different levels based on the official ARGO data. The graphs of the ARGO data are simply another complete rebuttal of AGW science. They speak for …
New paper predicts fewer cyclones in the Indian Ocean if the climate warms – Published in the International Journal of Climatology
New paper predicts fewer cyclones in the Indian Ocean if the climate warms
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-predicts-fewer-cyclones-in.html
A new paper published in the International Journal of Climatology predicts warming will decrease the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean. According to the authors,
“The model’s simulated frequency of storms is an overestimation of observations although the frequency of model’s simulated storms during 2071–2100 is less than that of during 1961–1990.”
In other words, the model overpredicted the number of historical cyclones from 1961-1990 and thus future predictions may be exaggerated, but nonetheless the same model predicts fewer storms from 2071-2100 than the period 1961-1990.
Global warming decreases the temperature gradient between the equator and poles, and temperature gradients, not absolute temperatures, drive all extreme weather including cyclones and hurricanes. Therefore, a warmer world is expected to have fewer cyclones, hurricanes, and extreme weather, not more.The paper joins many others predicting fewer cyclones, hurricanes, and storms in a warmer climate.Possible future changes in cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal, India under warmer climate
P. Parth Sarthi et alThe aim of this paper is to study the model’s simulated frequency, track, intensity and location of cyclonic storms (CSs) and severe cyclonic storms (SCSs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used. This model is integrated for the period 1961–1990 (baseline) and the future time period 2071–2100 (High emission scenario, A2). To run the model, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are supplied by UK Met Office. The analysis of frequency, track, intensity and location are carried out for May, June, September and October for the period 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. To evaluate the model’s performance in simulating storms frequency during 1961–1990, chi square test is carried out with observed storms for the same period. The model’s simulated frequency of storms is an overestimation of observations although the frequency of model’s simulated storms during 2071–2100 is less than that of during 1961–1990. In general, model’s simulated storms are found moving in the northwest direction from their initial location in all months during 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. In model’s simulations, the drop in central pressure is relatively more in the months of May, June, September and October during 2071–2100 compared with that during 1961–1990. During 2071–2100, more intense storms may be possible in …
New paper finds man-made irrigation causes ‘significant cooling of global average surface temperatures over land’ – Published in Climate Dynamics
New paper finds man-made irrigation causes ‘significant cooling of global average surface temperatures over land’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-man-made-irrigation.html
A paper published today in Climate Dynamics finds man-made agricultural irrigation “causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends” by increasing cloud cover and precipitation.
According to the authors, “irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard” climate models, and thus, “irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multi-model assessments.”
The negative feedbacks from evaporation & convection of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation illustrate how the climate is self-regulating, independent of CO2.
Irrigation as an historical climate forcingBenjamin I. Cook, Sonali P. Shukla, Michael J. Puma, Larissa S. NazarenkoIrrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, …