Unprecedented: Parts of Lake Superior covered in ice almost a week into June
…New paper shows anthropogenic emissions have had a net cooling effect since beginning of industrial revolution – Published in Science
New paper shows anthropogenic emissions have had a net cooling effect since beginning of industrial revolution
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-shows-anthropogenic-emissions.html
A paper published today in Science claims the transition from “pristine” to “slightly polluted” atmosphere at the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 18th century had a “dramatic aerosol effect [of increasing] clouds” over the oceans. According to the authors,
“transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of ~15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation.”
By way of comparison, the IPCC alleged change in radiative forcing from CO2 [plus alleged positive water vapor feedback] since the beginning of the industrial era is +1.8 watts per square meter*, or 8.3 times less. According to an accompanying editorial to the paper, the authors “show that even small additions of aerosol particles to clouds in the cleanest regions of Earth’s atmosphere will have a large effect on those clouds and their contribution to climate forcing.”
*Per the IPCC formula: 5.35*ln(395/280) = 1.8 W/m2 at the top of the atmosphere [or only about 1.8* (1/3.7) = 0.5 W/m2 at the surface]
From aerosol-limited to invigoration of warm convective clouds
Ilan Koren1,*,
Guy Dagan1,
Orit Altaratz1
+Author Affiliations
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute, Rehovot 76100, Israel.
↵*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
EDITOR’S SUMMARY
Among all cloud-aerosol interactions, the invigoration effect is the most elusive. Most of the studies that do suggest this effect link it to deep convective clouds with a warm base and cold top. Here, we provide evidence from observations and numerical modeling of a dramatic aerosol effect on warm clouds. We propose that convective-cloud invigoration by aerosols can be viewed as an extension of the concept of aerosol-limited clouds, where cloud development is limited by the availability of cloud-condensation nuclei. A transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of ~15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation.
Two commentaries on this paper also published today in Science:
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
Just add aerosols
Lorraine A. Remer
+Author Affiliations
Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland Baltimore County, 5523 Research Park Drive, …
Scientist: ‘What If Our Guesses Are Wrong?’ – ‘Flawed computer models have overestimated the rate of global warming since the turn of the century’
What If Our Guesses Are Wrong?
Published in the Journal of Forestry • May 2014
By Dr. David B. South – Emeritus Professor of Forestry, Auburn University.
This old professor would like to comment on four “climate change” articles. A 1973 article entitled “Brace yourself for another ice age” (Science Digest 57:57– 61) contained the following quote: “Man is doing these things… such as industrial pollution and deforestation that have effects on the environment.” A 1975 article about “Weather and world food” (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 56:1078–1083) indicated the return of an ice age would decrease food production. The author said “there is an urgent need for a better understanding and utilization of information on weather variability and climate change…”
Soon afterwards, Earle Layser wrote a paper about “Forests and climate” (Journal of Forestry 78:678–682). The following is an excerpt from his 1980 paper:
“One degree [F] may hardly seem significant, but this small change has reduced the growing season in middle latitudes by two weeks, created severe ice conditions in the Arctic, caused midsummer frosts to return to the upper midwestern United States, altered rainfall patterns, and in the winter of 1971–1972 suddenly increased the snow and ice cover of the northern hemisphere by about 13 percent, to levels where it has since remained” (Bryson 1974).
Spurr (1953) attributed significant changes in the forest composition in New England to mean temperature changes of as little as 2 degrees. Generally, the immediate effects of climatic change are the most striking near the edge of the Arctic (Sutcliffe 1969, p. 167) where such things as the period of time ports are ice-free are readily apparent. However, other examples cited in this article show that subtle but important effects occur over broad areas, particularly in ecotonal situations such as the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest or along the periphery of a species’ range.
Among these papers, Layser’s paper has been cited more often ( 20 times), but for some reason, it has been ignored by several authors (e.g., it has not been cited in any
Journal of Forestry papers). Perhaps it is fortunate that extension personnel did not choose to believe the guesses about a coming ice age. If they had chosen this “opportunity
for outreach,” landowners might have been advised to plant locally adapted genotypes further South (to lessen the impending threat to healthy forests). Since …
U.S. Networks Blame Wildfires, Droughts on Climate Change, Despite Fact They’ve Declined
…Flashback 1957: Then-Sen. Lyndon Johnson Believed Governments Would Be Able to Control Weather – Johnson Controlled The Rise Of The Seas Before Obama Was Born?
…Flashback 1979: Climate Experts Warned That An Increase In Antarctic Sea Ice Could Lead To A New Ice Age
…Scientist: ‘The theory of AGW falls short when judged as a scientific theory. But then, this is not really science, it is ideology verging on religious fanaticism’ – ‘The term carbon pollution itself is a canard, a lie, a pernicious falsehood’
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/big-bang-blunder-and-carbon-pollution-canard…
‘Boats could be launched from the bottom of the steps of the Capitol’ in DC – Flashback 1979: Steven Schneider ‘was peddling the identical West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse theory which is being recycled’ currently
…New claim: ‘When Global Warming Kills Your God’ –
…Senate Democrats invite GOP to climate debate
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/208306-senate-democrats-invite-gop-to-climate-debate…