Thursday, December 3, 2020
Home Special Reports 'The Himalayan glacier melt really was the least of the errors' -...

‘The Himalayan glacier melt really was the least of the errors’ – UN IPCC Lead Author Dr. Richard Tol turns on UN: ‘The IPCC does not guard itself against selection bias and group think’ – ‘Alarmism feeds polarization. Climate zealots want to burn heretics of global warming on a stick’

-

Statement by Dr. Richard Tol

IPCC again

http://richardtol.blogspot.com/2014/04/ipcc-again.html

In September 2013, I stepped down from the team that prepared the draft of the Summary for Policy Makers to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This attracted worldwide media attention in April 2014. Regrettably, the story of AR5 became the story of a man.I have been involved with the IPCC since 1994, fulfilling a variety of roles in all three working groups. After the debacle of AR4 – where the Himalayan glacier melt really was the least of the errors – I had criticized the IPCC for faulty quality control. Noblesse oblige – I am the 20thmost-cited climate scholar in the world – so I volunteered for AR5.The Irish government put my name forward only to withdraw its financial commitment when I was indeed elected. The necessary funding could have easily been freed up if the Irish delegation to the international climate negotiations and the IPCC would trim its luxurious travel arrangements.As a Convening Lead Author of one of the chapters, I was automatically on the team to draft the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM). AR5 is a literature review of 2,600 pages long. It assesses a large body of scholarly publication. In some places, the chapters are so condensed that there are a few words per article in the learned literature. The SPM then distills the key messages into 44 pages – but everyone knows that policy and media will only pick up a few sentences.In the earlier drafts of the SPM, there was a key message that was new, snappy and relevant: Many of the more worrying impacts of climate change really are symptoms of mismanagement and underdevelopment.This message does not support the political agenda for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Later drafts put more and more emphasis on the reasons for concern about climate change, a concept I had helped to develop for AR3. Raising the alarm about climate change has been tried before, many times in fact, but it has not had an appreciable effect on greenhouse gas emissions.I reckoned that putting my name on such a document would not be credible – my opinions are well-known – and I withdrew.The SPM, drafted by the scholars of the IPCC, is rewritten by delegates of the governments of the world, in this case in a week-long session in Yokohama. Some of these delegates are scholars, others are not. The Irish delegate, for instance, thinks that unmitigated climate change would put us on a highway to hell, referring, I believe, to an AC/DC song rather than a learned paper.Other delegations have a political agenda too. The international climate negotiations of 2013 in Warsaw concluded that poor countries might be entitled to compensation for the impacts of climate change. It stands to reason that the IPCC would be asked to assess the size of those impacts and hence the compensation package. This led to an undignified bidding war among delegations – my country is more vulnerable than yours – that descended into farce when landlocked countries vigorously protested that they too would suffer from sea level rise.Many countries send a single person delegation. Some countries can afford to send many delegates. They work in shifts, exhausting the other delegations with endless discussions about trivia, so that all important decisions are made in the final night with only a few delegations left standing. The IPCC authors, who technically have the right to veto text that contradicts their chapter, suffer from tiredness too.This shows. The SPM omits that better cultivars and improved irrigation increase crop yields. It shows the impact of sea level rise on the most vulnerable country, but does not mention the average. It emphasize the impacts of increased heat stress but downplays reduced cold stress. It warns about poverty traps, violent conflict and mass migration without much support in the literature. The media, of course, exaggerated further.Alarmism feeds polarization. Climate zealots want to burn heretics of global warming on a stick. Others only see incompetence and conspiracy in climate research, and nepotism in climate policy. A polarized debate is not conducive to enlightened policy in an area as complex as climate change – although we only need a carbon tax, and a carbon tax only, that applies to all emissions and gradually and predictably rises over time. The IPCC missed an opportunity to restore itself as a sober authority, accepted (perhaps only grudgingly) by most.The IPCC does not guard itself against selection bias and group think. Academics who worry about climate change are more likely to publish about it, and more likely to get into the IPCC. Groups of like-minded people reinforce their beliefs. The environment agencies that comment on the draft IPCC report will not argue that their department is obsolete. The IPCC should therefore be taken out of the hands of the climate bureaucracy and transferred to the academic authorities.

Sent by gReader Pro

6 COMMENTS

  1. Everything in Dr. Tol’s article makes complete sense, except when he proposes a continuously-increasing carbon tax to be levied on producers. Of course, the US taxpayer would be the primary contributor to this, since the other high carbon dioxide producers (i.e.,China, India, and Russia) are unlikely to contribute in proportion to their output. If the purpose of the tax is to redistribute wealth to the third-world countries he encountered in the delegations, this will only result in a global economic slowdown and a very wealthy group of tin-pot dictators and despots. It will do nothing to change the Earth’s climate.

  2. “The IPCC should therefore be taken out of the hands of the climate bureaucracy and transferred to the academic authorities.”

    Yeah, letting academics control the process and funding will surely make it fair and effective, right?

    Better if Tol just kept telling his story of corrupt incompetence in the UN.

  3. “The IPCC should therefore be taken out of the hands of the climate bureaucracy and transferred to the academic authorities.”
    The academic researchers will also not argue that their departments are obsolete.

  4. Welcome Nepal Treks & Tours – Operator is a one of the leading treking, tour and travel operator and organizer in the Himalayas Nepal. We have unique Trekking tour packages, Travel packages which are now a day’s followed by domestic and international travel tour agency.

    Our Trekking, Tour and Travel packages fit to all budget travelers to deluxe traveler. According to the tour packages we use guides who are local in that area and with full Knowledge.

    For more info please visit :- http://www.nepaltraveltourpackage.com

  5. This is a
    recommendation specifically for Sanjib Adhikari Independent trekking guide tour Operator
    based in Kathmandu, Nepal) My partner and I had chosen to trek the Annapurna
    Circuit for 18 days in Feb end 2014 and
    as we were new to the region and high altitude in general we were not going to
    attempt this without a guide. After trawling online forums (including here) for
    recommendations and requesting recommendations from family and friends back
    home who do have some experience we posted out requests for information to 3 or
    4 of the most promising reviewed individual guides, this included Sanjib
    Adhikari responded promptly with the
    most comprehensive and detailed response we received with a background of our
    kit requirements (Clothes, Equipments and First Aid recommendations), route to
    be taken what was or was not included in terms of food and accommodation and
    transport details. We requested some small changes to our itinerary (walking an
    extra section instead of taking a bus). Sanjib was quite flexible and proposed
    an alternate plan that did what we wanted. He also highlighted from the
    beginning that as we had chosen this route in the winter that it may not be
    possible to complete and that whilst the high pass en route (Thoroung La) was
    open at the time that if snow fell during our ascent there was some risk that
    the pass may be closed. During the trek we both found Sanjib to have plenty of
    experience and familiarity with both the trail conditions and route and had
    particular preferred Tea Houses in each town. However when these Tea Houses
    were not available due to closure off season, alternatives were always found
    and we certainly felt we were staying in good accommodation whilst there was a
    choice of it lower down. Sanjib consulted us where there were options to press
    on if we were making good progress or if we felt we needed to stop earlier than
    planned for a break and he was vigilant with our altitude conditioning on the
    higher trail. He also outlined the plan for the next day with options depending
    on progress and each day over 3500 metres included a plan for acclimatization
    training with side treks, to take us higher and back down to sleeping altitude
    if this had not already happened during the days trekking (this also meant we
    saw some other interesting sites, monasteries, viewpoints of glaciers or lakes etc).
    He was also a good host and shared a wealth of information about the local
    environment, culture, history, religion, politics and Nepal in general. He was
    happy to stay with us and chat or play cards after the days trekking was
    finished and was also happy to head off and chat with the tea house owners or
    other guides porters so there was no pressure either way. He was very diligent
    in keeping us topped up with included drinks and making sure we were fed with
    all we needed to keep us going. This was nice to see as the food was included
    as part of the package but there was no attempt to scrimp on our food or drinks
    bills! Sanjib always sorted us first and made sure that breakfast was ordered
    the night before for a prompt departure the next day. Sanjib is also a nice
    guide to get on with and speaks good English. The way in which the trekking
    package was structured with included food and accommodation made our lives a
    lot easier and more straightforward when things got a little tougher. During
    our trek we had many comments (compliments) from others both with and without
    guides that we had been lucky with our choice of guide and after 2 weeks on the
    road in various conditions including heavy snow I have to agree! We did hit the
    first snow of the winter the very night before we were due to climb the highest
    pass and we did attempt to cross the pass before the snow grew too deep. A
    couple of hours in and with the knowledge of how long we had to go the other
    side of the pass, Sanjib made the call to turn around and return to our last
    camp (High Camp). The snow worsened and we were safely backe in camp as it
    continued through the whole day and essentially snowed us in. Sanjib advised we
    wait another day to see what the weather does and sure enough, the sky cleared
    and we partnered up with several small trekking groups and crossed the high
    pass together in one large party with the guides including Sanjib taking turns to break the snow at the front.
    We did make it over in the end and we had a very tough and memorable trip with
    plenty of stories to tell. I would certainly choose Sanjib again for a trek in
    Nepal and I would recommend that you add him to any list of initial enquiries
    for a Nepal Trek to compare the responses and prices with others.

    Email-:[email protected]

    Website http://www.nepalguideinfo.com

    Mobile+9779841613822

    Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Independenttrekkinguidenepal?fref=ts

  6. Nepal Planet Treks – your trip planner

    Holiday in Nepal, Tibet & Bhutan

    Nepal Planet Treks and Expeditions focuses on exceptional customer support and service at value-for-money costs.

    We offer personally customized itineraries and activities tailored to the requirements of the client.

    Specializing in organizing tours, trekking,
    mountain expeditions, peak climbing, rafting, paragliding, bungee
    jumping, cycling and sightseeing in Nepal, we are your best choice for
    your trip to this wonderful country

    The friendly team members of Nepal Planet Treks
    and Expeditions consist of highly experienced adventure travel and
    mountain experts with high levels of practical knowledge about all that
    Nepal has to offer the visitor.

    Contact us with your requirements and we will have pleasure in sending you an ideal itinerary with costing.

    We make sure that you will get the most wonderful time of your life when you travel with Nepal Planet Treks…we promise you.

    http://www.nepalplanettreks.com/

    http://www.nepalplanettreks.com/

    Email:[email protected]

- Advertisment -

Related Articles

15 New 2017 Papers: Scientists Abandoning Claims Of Dominant Man-Made Influence On Arctic Climate

By Kenneth Richard on 15. May 2017 Natural Forcing Of Arctic Climate  Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists Gajewski, 2015 Three years ago a cogent paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature that...

Legislate the climate you want! Study: Laws to tackle climate change exceed 1,200 worldwide

OSLO (Reuters) - Nations around the world have adopted more than 1,200 laws to curb climate change, up from about 60 two decades ago,...

A fool’s errand: Al Gore’s $15 trillion carbon tax to ‘re-engineer humanity’ to save us from global warming

by Fred Palmer | May 9, 2017, 5:00 AM Al Gore wants to reverse modernity and save the world from itself through an elimination of...