2036 is the new 2012?! Michael Mann starts his own Mayan Calendar deadline: ‘Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036’
Mann’s latest propaganda: “Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036”
Michael Mann has published an article in Scientific American today entitled “Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036,” subtitled, “Emitting carbon dioxide at current rates will soon push Earth’s temperature up by 2 degrees Celsius. Here’s how to make the calculation yourself.”
Mann begins the article with, “If the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise 2 degrees Celsius by 2036, crossing a threshold that many scientists think will hurt all aspects of human civilization: food, water, health, energy, economy and national security,” which suggests the 2C “dangerous threshold” has a scientific basis. In fact, the “2C threshold” was unscientifically plucked out of thin air, as the University of East Anglia’s Phil Jones inadvertently admitted in Climategate 2.0. The UK Met Office subsequently admitted this as well to the Washington Post.
Mann appears to suggest that global temperatures will increase an additional 2C over the next 22 years from now to 2036, but doesn’t mention he’s talking about 2C warming total since pre-industrial times. Since the globe has warmed 0.7-0.8C since pre-industrial times, that would be an additional ~1.2C over the next 22 years.
Mann then proceeds in the article to go through his sciencey-sounding calculations to arrive at the dangerous threshold year of 2C warming by 2036, but his radiative calculations are just more hockey stick CAGW propaganda for the following reasons [and others]:
1. Mann uses the repeatedly debunked “IPCC/Myhre formula” for CO2 radiative forcing:
5.35*ln(CO2end/CO2start)which has a huge erroneous fudge factor of 5.35 that assumes increased water vapor will cause a positive feedback and increase total radiative forcing from CO2 & water vapor by a factor of 3.8 times. In reality, increased water vapor has a negative feedback cooling effect that more than exceeds any warming effect of CO2. The wet adiabatic lapse rate is only one-half of the dry rate, proving that water vapor has a net cooling effect. Satellite observations also prove the net climate feedbacks are negative, not positive as Mann assumes.
2. Even if we falsely assume the IPCC formula is correct, and that CO2 levels will rise at the same slightly exponential rate of e^.3311, CO2 levels in 2036 would be about 431ppm. Plugging this into the IPCC formula results in 5.35*ln(431/400)= 0.4W/m2. According to the IPCC, each additional …
MICHAELS and KNAPPENBERGER: AAAS’s Guide to Climate Alarmism- ‘The AAAS report is the epitome of climate alarmism—long in hype and short in fact and aimed squarely at influencing policymakers’
Somehow in its haste to scare us, the AAAS seems to have missed (or ignored) the two hottest topics in climate change these days—1) that climate models have done remarkablypoorly in replicating the evolution of global temperature during the past several decades , and 2) that high end climate change scenarios from the models are largely unsupported by observations.
Thus, “what the science is showing” completely undermines the AAAS contentions regarding alarming climate change.…
Excerpts Reprinted from E&E
USDA launches contest to tout wood skyscrapers as climate mitigation tool
Amanda Peterka, E&E reporter
Published: Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Excerpts: The Agriculture Department announced the launch today of a prize competition for high-rise wood architecture and a training program to support the use of wood in buildings.
Constructing buildings out of wood promotes sustainable forestry and climate change mitigation, USDA said in a statement.
“Wood may be one of the world’s oldest building materials, but it is now also one of the most advanced,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement.
The department will invest up to $1 million and has received an additional $1 million from the Binational Softwood Lumber Council for the prize competition, which will be announced later this year. It will be open to developers, institutions, organizations and design teams that can demonstrate that wood is architecturally and commercially viable in skyscrapers.
The Forest Service will operate the $1 million training program in partnership with the nonprofit group WoodWorks.
USDA said the programs are both part of the Obama administration’s Climate Action Plan and a new initiative to promote products made in rural America. The secretary announced the new programs at a meeting hosted today by the White House Rural Council.
Concerns about fire safety, structural weakness, cost and design restrictions have limited the use of wood in tall buildings.
But wood skyscrapers are becoming a more popular concept worldwide as concerns about climate change grow. According to USDA, three- to five-story buildings made of wood can have the same greenhouse gas emissions impact as taking 550 cars off the road for a year.
USDA’s Forest Products Laboratory in Wisconsin has previously pumped more than $2 million into researching emerging wood technologies.
The U.S. wood industry applauded the new announcement.
“Wood building products provide numerous environmental benefits, not the least of which is reducing greenhouse gas emissions and storing atmospheric carbon for decades,” American Wood Council President and CEO Robert Glowinski said in a statement. “Wood products manufacturing also requires much less energy and results in less air and water pollution than many alternative building materials.”
Flashback 2007: Former Czech Pres. Vaclav Klaus: ‘As someone who lived under communism for most of his life, I feel obliged to say that I see the biggest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy and prosperity now in ambitious environmentalism’
Full Klaus 2007 article here.
It was never about the science:
EU Commissioner: Global Warming Policy Is Right Even If Science Is Wrong — ‘Regardless of whether or not scientists are wrong on global warming, the European Union is pursuing the correct energy policies even if they lead to higher prices, Europe’s climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard’s has said.’ — EU’s Hedegaard in 2013: ‘Let’s say that science, some decades from now, said ‘we were wrong, it was not about climate’, would it not in any case have been good to do many of things you have to do in order to combat climate change?.’
Flashback: 1993: Former U.S. Senator Timothy Wirth: ‘We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing, in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.’
Hedegaard in 2013: ‘I think we have to realize that in the world of the 21st century for us to have the cheapest possible energy is not the answer.’
Flashback 1975: Obama Science Czar John Holdren Says Real Threat to USA Is Cheap Energy: ‘The U.S.is threatened far more by the hazards of too much energy, too soon, than by the hazards of too little energy, too late.’
Flashback 2007: Former Czech President Vaclav Klaus: ‘As someone who lived under communism for most of his life, I feel obliged to say that I see the biggest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy and prosperity now in ambitious environmentalism…This ideology wants to replace the free and spontaneous evolution of mankind by a sort of central (now global) planning.’
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen: ‘He who controls carbon controls life. It is a bureaucrat’s dream to control carbon dioxide’
‘A planned economic recession’: Global warming prof. Kevin Anderson – who has ‘cut back on showering’ to save planet – asserts economic ‘de-growth’ is needed to fight climate change — Anderson: ‘Continuing with economic growth over the coming two decades is incompatible with meeting our international …
Study: Global warming will cause 180,000 cases of rape in the U.S. – Published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
New study published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management: Global warming will cause 180,000 cases of rape in the US
From the wonderful world of global warming “science”:”Crime, weather, and climate change” – A study by Matthew Ranson published in theJournal of Environmental Economics and Management”This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.”
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Time Mag: ‘Climate Change Could Cause the Next Great Famine’ – – Time Mag’s Bryan Walsh ‘Hoping to Be The Next Paul Ehrlich’
Bryan Walsh Hoping to Be The Next Paul Ehrlich
Forty years ago, we had the great prophet Ehrlich telling us that we were going to starve The Sydney Morning Herald Now we have the prophet Walsh. Climate Change Could Cause the Next Great Famine | TIME.com By shutting down our industries and ability to produce food, these people hope to make their prophesies self-fulfilling.…
Britain To Freeze Carbon Tax As Energy Cost Becomes Biggest Worry For Voters
Consumers could be spared further rises in energy bills, if the chancellor freezes his controversial carbon tax in Wednesday’s Budget. A BBC survey, meanwhile, has suggested that energy bills are the top worry for consumers.
It is being widely predicted that George Osborne may decide to abandon any further increases in the Carbon Price Floor, introduced in April 2013.
Any freeze in the tax could cut as much as £50 from consumer bills by 2020.
Meanwhile, a BBC survey has suggested that energy bills are the biggest worry for households.
The Carbon Price Floor (CPF) is designed to penalise companies who create pollution, and to encourage investment in green energy.
The merits of freezing the tax have been advocated by an unusual array of allies, including the CBI, manufacturers’ organisation the EEF, energy suppliers and consumer groups including Which? and Consumer Futures.
However, those in favour of more investment in green energy are likely to be disappointed. Environmentalists say it could mean fewer wind turbines or solar farms being constructed.
The Carbon Price Floor (CPF) ensures that polluters pay a minimum price for the gas or fossil fuels they burn.
In effect, it is a surcharge on the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EETS), which was designed to tax polluters across the EU.
However, the market price of the right to emit carbon has fallen so much that the EETS is no longer as strong a disincentive to pollute as it was.
But the implementation of the CPF has left many big British companies paying more in tax than their counterparts elsewhere in the EU.
Last year, the CPF added £5 to a typical UK energy bill, according to the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).
But as the tax is due to be ramped up over the next few years, so too is the contribution from consumers.
“The Carbon Price Floor is set to become a bigger and unnecessary burden on struggling consumers in coming years and we think it should be scrapped,” said Richard Lloyd, the executive director of Which?
A BBC survey, meanwhile, has suggested that energy bills are the top worry for consumers.
The survey, conducted by ComRes for BBC Breakfast, concluded that more people worry about paying utility bills or council tax than any other household expenditure.