NBC News: Problems with climate models are ‘bad news for the climate research community’ ‘could erode trust in climate science’ ‘downplay natural variability’
NBC News: Problems with climate models are ‘bad news for the climate research community’ ‘could erode trust in climate science’ ‘downplay natural variability’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/02/nbc-news-problems-with-climate-models.html
NBC News, typically the most alarmist network on global warming, published a surprisingly balanced article today on the new paper finding excuse #8 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Pacific trade winds.
Among the eye-opening quotes in the article are:
The “head-scratcher of a discrepancy between the temperature trends churned out by climate models and those observed in the real world”
“If you let the models do what they want to do without constraining them by observations, then they will not reproduce the hiatus,”
“And they don’t do that because … they do not reproduce this cooling over the past 10 or 20 years in the tropical Pacific. Instead they show, on average, warming.”
“The picture is further muddled by the fact that “longer-term climate models have these winds weakening over the 21st century; that is to say 100 years from now they should be weaker. The fact that they have gotten stronger over the past 20 years, I think, is a surprise,”
“It suggests that there is something that is happening in the real system that is not quite captured in the models.”
“The shortcomings of the climate models highlighted in this new paper feed into larger criticism that the models play down the importance of natural variability in the global climate system. ”
it is bad news for the climate research community because it does point to a potential problem for the climate models.”
A problem with the models, in turn, could erode trust in climate science
The inability of the models to capture the observed wind trends and thus the hiatus is “just one small process in the global system that seems to need improvement,”
Global Warming Pause? The Answer Is Blowin’ Into the Ocean
BY JOHN ROACH NBC News 2/9/14 [with added notations, emphasis, links]For the past 13 years, global surface air temperatures have hardly budged higher despite continual pumping of planet-warming gasses into the atmosphere from the engines of modern life. Does this prove global warming is a giant hoax? No, according to a new study, which says the missing heat is being blown into the western Pacific Ocean by extraordinarily powerful and accelerating trade winds.”Their acceleration over the last couple of decades is way stronger than you’ve ever seen in …
New paper finds excuse #8 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Strengthening Pacific trade winds
New paper finds excuse #8 for the ‘pause’ in global warming: Pacific trade winds
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/02/new-paper-finds-excuse-8-for-pause-in.html
A paper published today in Nature Climate Change adds the eighth excuse for the ‘pause’ in global warming: strengthened Pacific trade winds, which according to the authors, were “not captured [simulated] by climate models.” On the basis of those same highly-flawed climate models, the authors predict rapid global warming will resume in a decade or so when those trade winds abate.Climate Depot Analysis: ‘There have been at least seven separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ – 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor09.02.2014Trade winds may be a significant cause of the so called global warming pause, according to new research.
An article published online today in Nature Climate Change investigates how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for 0.1C- 0.2C of cooling through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake – this is enough to account for much of the temperature slowdown in the so called global warming pause.Global average surface temperatures rose sharply during the second half of the 20th century before leveling off since the late 1990s despite a continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Scientists have yet to fully explain the recent slowdown in the rise of air temperatures attributed to the so called global warming pause that, on at least one measure, has lasted for over 17 years.Although cool surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean have been identified as a key component of this feature, it has so far been unclear how this occurs. The paper published online in Nature Climate Change this week investigates how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for 0.1–0.2°C cooling — much of the temperature slowdown — through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.Matthew England from the University of New South Wales and co-workers used observations and climate models to investigate the impact of increased trade winds on climate.They showed that when the model is forced by the irregularly strong winds, the sea surface response matches observed trends. The shallow ocean circulation loops are sped up by the intensified winds, causing increased equatorial upwelling of cool waters and the subduction of warm water, or heat drawdown, to the subsurface layer.They find that around 80% of the surface temperature cooling occurred after …
Watch Now: Fox News Features Climate Depot’s Morano: ‘The predictions that the global warming activists have made are going, have gone, belly up’
…Record snowfall turns Italian village white – Traps people in their homes
…Toronto stands on a stage of ice: The ice is the worst he has seen in 20 years. ‘This is really bad’
Lake Ontario itself usually does not freeze over. Unlike Lake Erie, which does, it is deep and retains the leftover heat of summer longer. This year, though, 20 per cent of its surface is frozen, up from the average of 14 per cent at this time of year. The Great Lakes as a whole are 75 per cent ice-covered, up from the average of 30 per cent, reports the Canadian Ice Service.…
Meteorologist Joe DAleo: The End of Snow? ‘New York Times hypes the leftist lie that snow is disappearing’
By Joseph D’Aleo
The NYT continues its leftist lie campaign with a story on snow disappearing called ”The End of Snow” by Porter Fox, a reporter for Powder magazine.
It includes this claim:
In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere.
Lets check the facts.
This claim was made to ski areas by the Union of Concerned Scientists (and environmental advocacy group – not real scientists).
Enlarged
That winter that followed, record snows fell from Alaska to Colorado and northeast to northern and central New England. Michael Berry, President of the National Ski Area Association said it was likely the best season ever.
Enlarged
4 of thr top 5 snowiest winters for the northern hemisphere have occurred in the last 6 years.
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Last November to April had a record snowcover for the hemisphere.
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The number major impact east cost storms this decade just 4 years in, makes this the snowiest decade on record.
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The snowcover today for the hemisphere is extensive even with a gap in Europe (after 5 snowy years).
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The snowcover for the first week of February is 6th greatest for North America and 9th greatest for the Northern Hemisphere (out of the 48 years the NYT article claims).
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Another few winters like those of recent years and maybe the scientists and their adoring fact-less feckless media may be preserved in ice for future generation’s amusement.
By Joseph D’Aleo
The NYT continues its leftist lie campaign with a story on snow disappearing called ”The End of Snow” by Porter Fox, a reporter for Powder magazine.
It includes this claim:
In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere.
Lets check the facts.
This claim was made to ski areas by the Union of Concerned Scientists (and environmental advocacy group – not real scientists).
Enlarged
That winter that followed, record snows fell from Alaska to Colorado and northeast to northern and central New England. Michael Berry, President of the National Ski Area Association said it was likely the best season ever.
Enlarged
4 of thr top 5 snowiest winters for the northern hemisphere have occurred in the last 6 years.
Enlarged
Last November to April had a …
Australia Poll: More skeptics than believers, and few really care about ‘Climate change’
Australia: more skeptics than believers, and few really care about “Climate change”
First up, despite the endless repetition in the media that the science is settled and the evidence is overwhelming, the latest CSIRO survey shows 53% of the Australian population don’t agree that “humans are causing climate change”. When the ABC gives 50% of its climate budget and time to skeptical arguments we will know it is fulfilling its charter. Right now, the ABC serves less than half the population. Secondly, even with 47% of the population agreeing that humans are “largely” causing climate change, many of these people still don’t think climate change will be that bad. The issue “Climate Change” ranks 14 out of 16 general concerns, and among environmental concerns a pathetic 7th out of 8. It seems a large section of the 47% think the warming will be minor, or even beneficial. The CSIRO has done another clumsy survey, the fourth in a series, still not learning that inaccurate survey terms make the results of most questions meaningless. The unmistakable bottom line from this is that only a minority of Australians think that humans are changing the climate in an important way. Most Australians are more concerned about their health, their income, their job, water shortages, or […]Rating: 10.0/10 (6 votes cast)…