Review paper finds the Medieval Warm Period was worldwide and warmer than the present: ‘Earth’s current level of warmth need not be attributed to the current high level of the air’s CO2 content; for the peak warmth of the global Medieval Warm Period was even greater than it has been over the past couple of decades, and at a time when the air’s CO2 concentration was approximately 100 ppm less than it is today’
Review paper finds the Medieval Warm Period was worldwide and warmer than the present
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/review-paper-finds-medieval-warm-period.html
A new review paper from SPPI and CO2 Science concludes “that earth’s current level of warmth need not be attributed to the current high level of the air’s CO2 content; for the peak warmth of the global Medieval Warm Period was even greater than it has been over the past couple of decades, and at a time when the air’s CO2 concentration was approximately 100 ppm less than it is today, which suggests that whatever phenomenon was responsible for the warmth of the Medieval Warm Period could also be responsible for the warmth.”
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Excerpts:
Climate alarmists have long contended that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was not a worldwide phenomenon, primarily because that reality would challenge another of their major claims, i.e., that late 20th-century temperatures were the warmest of the past millennium or more. Thus, it is important to know what has been learned about this subject in different parts of the world; and in this summary attention is focused on Asian countries other than China, Russia and Japan, which are treated individually in other MWP Summaries.
Off the coast of Israel … they found evidence for the MWP centered around AD 1200. In discussing their findings, they make particular mention of the fact that there is an abundance of other well-documented evidence for the existence of the MWP in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Once again, there is additional evidence for solar forcing of climate at decadal and multi-decadal time scales, as well as for the millennial-scale oscillation of climate that likely was responsible for the 20th-century warming of the globe that led to the demise of the Little Ice Age and ushered in the Current Warm Period.
Modern-day warming on the Korean peninsula is only slightly greater than what occurred there back in the Medieval Warm Period. And if one looks a little further back in Park’s temperature reconstruction, it can be seen that approximately 2200 years ago it may actually have been slightly warmer than it was near the end of the 20th century AD, suggesting that there is nothing unusual or unnatural about the earth’s current level of warmth.
Although they do not directly say it in their paper, the findings of Kaniewski et …
New paper shows climate models falsely predicted Antarctic sea ice would decline more than Arctic sea ice: Published in Quaternary Science Reviews – ‘In reality, Antarctic sea ice is currently near the highest levels recorded by satellites since 1979, and almost completely offset the Arctic sea ice changes since 1979’
New paper shows climate models falsely predicted Antarctic sea ice would decline more than Arctic sea ice
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-shows-climate-models-falsely.html
A paper published today in Quaternary Science Reviews finds that climate models falsely predicted Antarctic sea ice would decline more than Arctic sea ice over the 20th century. In reality, Antarctic sea ice is currently near the highest levels recorded by satellites since 1979, and almost completely offset the Arctic sea ice changes since 1979. The current Antarctic sea ice anomaly of +1 million square km is shown by the added red arrows below, and is about 2 million square kilometers above the decline falsely predicted by the mean of five climate models for the year 2000.
Note added red arrows show current sea ice anomalies in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres compared to 5 climate model simulations.
Fig. 7. Anomaly of annual mean sea ice area (in 106 km2) simulated in five different models over the last millennium in the northern hemisphere and in the southern hemisphere. LOVECLIM1.2 results are in red, MPI-ESM-E1 in light blue, MPI-ESM-E2 in dark blue, MPI-ESM-P in violet, CCSM4 in green. The reference period is 1850–1980 AD and a 21-year running mean has been applied to the time series.
Fig. 6. Time series of the anomaly of ice extent (in 106 km2) a) in the northern hemisphere in summer (September), b) in the northern hemisphere in winter (March), c) in the southern hemisphere in summer (March), d) in the southern hemisphere in winter (September). The results of ECHAM5/MPI-OM are in black (simulation covering the last 6000 years, Fischer and Jungclaus, 2011). Five simulations covering the last 8000 years with LOVECLIM1.1 using different model parameters are in green, yellow, red, magenta and violet (Goosse et al., 2007). The parameters that are varied are mainly related to the radiative scheme leading to climate sensitivities ranging from 1.6 to 3.8 K. An additional simulation with ECBILT-CLIO over the last 9000 years is in light green (Renssen et al., 2009). Compared to the other simulations, this longer simulation includes a forcing related to the presence of remains of the Laurentide during the early Holocene (effect on the surface albedo, elevation and freshwater forcing). Note that the plotted time series end in 1850 as some simulations does not include anthropogenic forcings. The reference period is 1000–1850 and a 51-year running mean has been applied to the time series.
Modelling past sea …
Peak Oil Redux: World oil production is 50% higher today than in 1973
Peak Oil Redux: World oil production is 50% higher today than in 1973
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/peak-oil-redux-world-oil-production-is.html
Daniel Yergin: Why OPEC No Longer Calls the Shots
The oil embargo 40 years ago spurred an energy revolution. World production is 50% higher today than in 1973.
By
DANIEL YERGIN
WSJ.COM 10/14/13: Forty years ago, on Oct. 17, 1973, the world experienced its first “oil shock” as Arab exporters declared an embargo on shipments to Western countries. The OPEC embargo was prompted by America’s military support for Israel, which was repelling a coordinated surprise attack by Arab countries that had begun on Oct. 6, the sacred Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.
With prices quadrupling in the next few months, the oil crisis set off an upheaval in global politics and the world economy. It also challenged America’s position in the world, polarized its politics at home and shook the country’s confidence.
Yet the crisis meant even more because it was the birth of the modern era of energy. Although the OPEC embargo seemed to provide proof that the world was running short of oil resources, the move by Arab exporters did the opposite: It provided massive incentive to develop new oil fields outside of the Middle East—what became known as “non-OPEC,” led by drilling in the North Sea and Alaska.
The Prudhoe Bay oil field was discovered in Alaska five years before the crisis. Yet opposition by environmentalists had prevented approval for a pipeline to bring the oil down from the North Slope—very much a “prequel” to the current battle over the Keystone XL pipeline. Only in the immediate aftermath of the embargo did a shaken Congress approve a pipeline that eventually added at its peak as much as two million barrels a day to the domestic supply.
© Corbis
A Connecticut filling station in 1974 amid the oil embargo.
The push to find alternatives to oil boosted nuclear power and coal as secure domestic sources of electric power. The 1973 crisis spawned the modern wind and solar industries, too. By 1975, 5,000 people were flooding into Washington, D.C., for a conference on solar energy, which had been until then only “a subject for eco-freaks,” as one writer noted at the time.
That same year, Congress passed the first Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, which required auto makers to double fuel efficiency—from 13.5 miles per gallon to 27 miles per gallon—ultimately saving about two millions …
‘Green’ Europe Is Returning To Coal: ‘Europe is marching straight back into the past by increasing its reliance on coal for electricity’
‘Green’ Europe Is Returning To Coal
http://www.thegwpf.org/europe-cutting-green-energy-coal-comeback/
Despite all the brohaha about carbon emissions and global warming, Europe is marching straight back into the past by increasing its reliance on coal for electricity.
Once upon a yesteryear, various European and Asian governments as well as the United States seemed so unequivocally convinced that all the expensive and taxpayer-funded “investments” they were making in new, market-resistant, and so-thought “green” technologies would help to them to ensure a cleaner and more “sustainable” future in which they were all less reliant on foreign fuels to fulfill their energy needs.
The fruits of their many “investments,” unfortunately, have been found not merely environmentally wanting but financially unsustainable, to boot, as the economic consequences of higher electricity prices and crippling national debt burdens have reared their ugly heads. Completely unsurprisingly, the falloff in government “investment” (i.e., subsidization) has been mirrored by a falloff in private investment, via Bloomberg:
Clean-energy investment fell 14 percent in the third quarter from the prior three months as Europe curbed subsidies and cheaper U.S. natural gas lured investment.
The $45.9 billion spent makes it “almost certain” that annual investment in renewables and energy-smart technologies will fall for the second consecutive year from $281 billion in 2012, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a statement.
Investment in the quarter was 20 percent lower than the same period last year as spending in China, the U.S. and Europe fell. The U.S. saw the largest decline, sliding 41 percent to $5.5 billion, according to the London-based research company.
Europe’s clean-energy industry is retrenching after subsidies were reduced in nations from Germany to Spain, which helped propel record growth in previous years. Cheap gas in the U.S. driven by a shale-drilling boom and a reduction in China’s spending on wind power wind power also contributed to the overall decline, the London-based consultant said
One of the most facepalm-worthy parts of all of this is that supporters of the Obama administration’s regulatory war-on-coal largely and blithely rely on the argument that because the coal-substitute of natural gas has been doing so well, coal is naturally entering its sunset years anyway and will shortly fall prey to the economical powers of creative destruction — but strangely, they often forget to mention that coal could easily regain market share in the event that natural gas prices begin to rise for whatever reason The Obama administration is effectively …
Report: The Return Of King Coal As The World’s Dominant Fuel: ‘Coal will become more in demand than oil by 2020 driven by growth in China and India’
The Return Of King Coal As The World’s Dominant Fuel
http://www.thegwpf.org/return-king-coal-worlds-dominant-fuel/
Coal will become more in demand than oil by 2020 driven by growth in China and India, despite campaigns to reduce carbon emissions across the globe, a new report reveals.
Marking a return to an era reminiscent of Britain’s industrial revolution, the rapidly expanding economies in the East are turning to coal since it is cheaper and more reliable than oil or renewable energy sources, energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie said on Monday.
Rising demand in China and India will push coal past oil as the two Asian powerhouses will need to rely on the comparatively cheaper fuel to power their economies. Coal demand in the United States, Europe and the rest of Asia will hold steady.
Smog: China has access to vast swathes of coal, which is cheaper for it to use than other fossil fuels. Pictured, Wuda Coal Field, in Wu Hai, Inner Mongolia, China, where coal is mined, then trucked nearby to the power stations and factories in the region
Global coal consumption is expected to rise by 25 per cent by the end of the decade to 4,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent, overtaking oil at 4,400 million tonnes, according to Woodmac in a presentation on Monday at the World Energy Congress.
‘China’s demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel,’ said William Durbin, president of global markets at Woodmac. ‘Unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable.’
China – already the top consumer – will drive two-thirds of the growth in global coal use this decade. Half of China’s power generation capacity to be built between 2012 and 2020 will be coal-fired, said Woodmac.
China has no alternative to coal, with its domestic gas output limited, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports more costly than coal, Durbin said.
China’s demand for coal will almost single handedly propel it to the most demanded fuel on the planet, the report says
‘Renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source,’ he said.
Power infrastructure provider Alstom estimated that across Asia close to half of the 600 gigawatt of new power generators to be built over the next five years will be coal-fired, Giles Dickson, a vice president at the company said.
‘Coal prices are low,’ he said, adding that coal is about one-third of …
Nigel Lawson In Swiss Interview: Climate Alarmists ‘Are In Search Of A Reason To Explain Why They’ve Erred’
Nigel Lawson In Swiss Interview: Climate Alarmists “Are In Search Of A Reason To Explain Why They’ve Erred”
British politician, Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and Secretary of State for Energy, has just interviewed with the online Swiss daily Tagesanzeiger based in Zurich. He provides his views on climate change, its causes, and energy policy.
Photo right: Nigel Lawson, public domain photo
A number of leading Swiss publications have recently expressed doubts over the claims made by the IPCC and its scientists. The Tagesanzeiger interview is just the latest.
First Lawson calls the IPCC’s admission that the temperature hasn’t risen in 15 years “notable” and that it shows the climate models are “inadequate”. “The empirical findings contradict the claims about the future being made by the IPCC. That’s not the way to do science.”
(Note: All quotes are translated from the German).
Lawson does not dispute that CO2 has a warming impact on climate, but that the real question is how much? “On this there are many different opinions“. Lawson believes that the IPCC agenda is mostly in the hands of the alarmists who believe CO2 is mostly driving the climate. But Lawson says there has to be other factors. “Without a doubt, the most important one is solar activity.”
Lawson calls the assumption that the oceans have soaked up the heat “pure speculation, an excuse from alarmists who are searching for a reason to explain why they erred”. He says that there are practically no measurements from the deep sea to support this, and also dismisses the notion that CO2 may have caused the Gulf Stream to change, calling it “nonsense”.
On Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory, Lawson says that CERN has neither been able to confirm nor refute the theory, and that the theory remains interesting.
When asked about global warming causing more storms, Lawson is emphatic, saying this is not the case, and points the finger to greedy insurance companies.
It is completely false. The number and strength of tropical storms over the last decades has not increased, even if the insurance companies always claim to the contrary in order to justify their increasing premiums.”
On sea level rise, Lawson sees no data showing sea level rise is going to speed up and warns that this is fraught with uncertainty as it is a very complex phenomena involving the movement of land masses.
In the …
International Experts: Greenpeace An ‘Extremist Organization’ …’Often Uses Illegal Methods’…Now ‘Getting Its Due’…’ ARussian court has denied the Greenpeace activists bail, and the prospect of spending a long time is increasingly becoming a grim reality’
International Experts: Greenpeace An “Extremist Organization” …”Often Uses Illegal Methods”…Now “Getting Its Due”…
The Moscow Times here writes that a Russian court has denied the Greenpeace activists bail, and the prospect of spending a long time is increasingly becoming a grim reality. But unlike in the past, Greenpeace is now also being sharply criticized worldwide.
The English-language Voice of Russia aims harsh criticism at Greenpeace, writing that “experts doubt the adequacy and altruism of that international organization“.
The first thing that jumps out at you in the Voice of Russia article is the photo of Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise. The front is completely bent in. Have they been engaging in a little ramming lately? Some excerpts from the Voice of Russia (my emphasis):
The Western press launched a loud campaign in support of the Greenpeace. But many experts not to mention ordinary people call the actions of the activists ecological extremism. Here is the view of the situation of Mikhail Voytenko, the editor-in-chief of the Maritime Bulletin:
Everybody was afraid of getting involved with the Greenpeace, starting with corporations and ending with whole countries. And now it encountered somebody who did not get scared. And it is now getting its due. […] In reality, the Greenpeace is a dubious organization, which frequently uses illegal methods in quite different countries. […] On the whole it is practically an extremist organization.”
Voice of Russia quotes Ortis Andres Carlos, an Argentinian expert in economics and energy, a PhD in economics, is of a similar opinion:
It was a real attack on the Russian platform, the activists acted very roughly and provocatively. To call things their names, we are talking about «ecological terrorism». Greenpeace activists are a lot more interested in creating a social response.”
Meanwhile The Mirror here reports that arrested British journalist Keiron Bryan has gotten a letter out to the media in which he expresses real fear of what lies ahead. The Mirror writes: “he fears a long jail sentence and that he is feeling “horrible uncertainty and anxiety“. He believes that those arrested were “pieces in a game we didn’t want to participate in“. Obviously Keiron and the activists initially thought they’d be handled with kids’ gloves, maybe spend a night in jail before strutting out the next day in the limelight of the big sympathetic media. Instead they are now staring at a Russian judge through the bars …
“Most Severe Start Of Winter In 200 Years!” + European Municipalities Now Ignoring Foolish Predictions Of Warm Winters
“Most Severe Start Of Winter In 200 Years!” + European Municipalities Now Ignoring Foolish Predictions Of Warm Winters
Last Thursday evening and yesterday winter made its (BIG) debut in Southern Germany and Austria – and how! Read more here.
German RTL television last night here (starting at 4:30) called it the “most severe start of winter in 200 years!“, saying many meteorologists were caught by surprise. Up to half a meter of snow fell at some locations.
Gone are the mild winters of the sort Europe seen in the 1990s and early 2000s. Indeed for central Europe the last 5 consecutive winters have all been colder than normal – a record!
These days are blockbuster times for German road salt manufacturers. In Europe municipalities have learned their lesson: ignore foolish predictions of warm winters, order huge quantities of salt, and do it early!
Municipalities and road commissioners were once led astray by climatologists’ predictions of increasingly warmer winters and led to thinking that these had become a thing of the past due to global warming (recall famous words of David Viner and Mojib Latif). One major daily even proclaimed that spring would arrive in January!
As a consequence of these false global warming predictions, municipalities unwisely kept much smaller stocks of road salt for expected shorter and milder winters. Road commissioners saw little reason to keep thousands of tons of road salt in stock.
Then beginning in 2009 came one harsh winter after another. Road maintenance crews and commissioners were caught red-faced. Suddenly municipalities were running out of salt by January and were even longer able to keep the most vital traffic arteries cleared. Traffic chaos ensued and motorists were left to fend for themselves. Municipalities were stunned and left scratching their heads. Weather-wise the exact opposite of what climatologists had predicted had taken place. They learned the hard way. Now they are no longer heeding the foolish forecasts of warm winters.
Not surprisingly, many of the very same climatologists have since changed their tune and are now suddenly predicting cold, bitter winters for Europe….because of global warming!
German public radio SWR here reports that this year municipalities and road commissioners are stocking up on road salt:
The Salzwerke AG in Heilbronn said that municipalities had ordered large quantities of road salt. […] Over the past years road salt had often been in short supply in some municipalities because …