Reality Check: The ‘1000 year Colorado flood’ is actually a 25-50 year flood

Shocker: The “1000 year Colorado flood” is actually a 25-50 year flood

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/shocker-1000-year-colorado-flood-is.html

How Fantasy Becomes Fact

Reblogged from Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. 9/19/13:

The flooding in Colorado has wreaked tremendous devastation, by one estimate the costs will total about $2 billion. Some people remain unaccounted for and it will be many months if not longer before the Front Range recovers. If you’d like to contribute to the recovery, please see this page with resources. As is often the case in the aftermath of extreme events and disasters, people look for some way to put them into a bigger perspective. With respect to floods, a common way of establishing this perspective is through the N-year flood, which is defined as a flood with 1/N probability of occurring in any given year. So the 100-year flood, used in floodplain regulations, is a flood with an expected 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Earlier this week, I presented some of my objections to the utility and meaningfulness of the concept of the N-year flood. In this post I show how the concept of the N-year flood can be used to turn fantasy into fact.In an article titled “The Science Behind Colorado’ Thousand-Year Flood” Time magazine explains:
Parts of Boulder are experiencing a 1-in-1,000 year flood. That doesn’t literally mean that the kind of rainfall seen over the past week only occurs once in a millennium. Rather, it means that a flood of this magnitude only has a 0.1% chance of happening in a given year.
Time is a fixture of the mainstream media and what is written there is widely read and repeated. A big problem with Time’s article is that Boulder did not actually experience a “1,000-year flood.” In fact, according to an analysis presented by fellow CU faculty member John Pitlick yesterday, using standard hydrological methods, Boulder experienced between a 25- and 50-year flood. (I am focusing here on Boulder, I have not seen similar analyses for other Colorado streamflows, though they are sure to come.) Pitlick further noted that the flood waters did not reach the 50-year mark on the Gilbert White memorial (seen at the top of this post.)
Pitlick walks us through maps of estimated inundation for 25-yr, 50 & 100 flood. Observations over recent days look more like 25-yr maps.— Laura Snider (@lauracsnider) September 18, 2013
How is it that the “1000-year flood” has …

Warmist Nicholas Stern: The UN IPCC’s report has been prepared by 259 researchers; CO2 might result in ‘population movements of perhaps hundreds of millions’

Nicholas Stern: The IPCC’s report has been prepared by 259 researchers; CO2 might result in “population movements of perhaps hundreds of millions”

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/09/nicholas-stern-ipcc-report-has-been.html

World leaders must co-operate on talks for strong new climate change deal | Nicholas Stern | Comment is free | The ObserverThe IPCC’s report, which has been prepared by 259 researchers from 39 countries, will show even more clearly how human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are creating a dangerous trend with immense risks for the lives and livelihoods of billions of people around the world from shifts in extreme weather, rising sea levels and other serious problems….What we have learned from history is that if people are faced with increased dangers of floods, droughts and other extreme weather, they will try to escape, resulting in population movements of perhaps hundreds of millions, leading to widespread and continued conflict.…

New IPCC report claims greenhouse gases caused 140% of warming since 1951

New IPCC report claims greenhouse gases caused 140% of warming since 1951

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-ipcc-report-claims-greenhouse-gases.html

According to the leaked IPCC report, “….Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of 0.5-1.3 C [average 0.9 C] over the period 1951-2010.” However, the most widely used global temperature dataset [HADCRU4] shows a temperature rise of 0.64 C over the period 1951-2010. Thus, the IPCC is attributing 140% of the average warming 1951-2010 to greenhouse gases, more than fully discounting any contribution from natural variability and natural forcing such as solar activity and solar amplification, ocean oscillations, global brightening, etc. Recent peer-reviewed papers have led Dr. Judith Curry to conclude “significantly MORE than half of the observed warming” is natural, not due to man-made greenhouse gases.

HADCRU global mean 1951-2010 shows warming of 0.64C, linear slope of 0.0107C per year

The new report “attributes an observed slowing in warming from 1998 to 2012 — a phenomenon cited by skeptics as evidence that warming is not man-made — to a temporary cooling cycle in the weather system and lower-than-expected solar activity.” However, satellite data indicates what the IPCC calls the “observed slowing in warming” was actually a cooling. [perhaps the IPCC should adopt the term “negative warming”?]

RSS satellite data shows global cooling 1998-2012, slope -0.0044C per year

Growing certainties on global warming and human roleAFP September 21, 2013Over the past 23 years, UN scientists have issued progressively stronger assertions about climate change. They have moved from a sketchy warning that heat-trapping carbon gases emitted by fossil fuels will cause a “greenhouse” effect to the conviction that this effect is now having an impact on Earth’s climate. Following are extracts from the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change’s assessment reports, the latest of which will be published from Friday. First Assessment Report (1990) “… emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases… “These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.”

 Second Assessment Report (1995) “Most of these studies have detected a significant change and show that the observed warming trend is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin… “… the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. “… the average rate of warming [in projections for the 21st century] would probably be greater than any seen in the last …

Climategate 4.0? UN IPCC ‘pause deniers’ cover-up no global warming for past 20 years – – ‘According to a peer-reviewed paper just published in Nature Climate Change, there has been no statistically-significant global warming for the past 20 years’

Climategate 4.0? UN IPCC ‘pause deniers’ cover-up no global warming for past 20 years

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/climategate-40-un-ipcc-pause-deniers.html

According to a peer-reviewed paper just published in Nature Climate Change, there has been no statistically-significant global warming for the past 20 years. As noted by Dr. Judith Curry: “we see where ‘pause denial’ has led the IPCC, potentially to a crisis point in the AR5.”

World’s ‘top’ climate scientists told to ‘cover up’ the fact that the Earth’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years

Leaked United Nations report reveals the world’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years

Politicians have raised concerns about the final draft

Fears that the findings will encourage deniers of man-made climate change

By TAMARA COHEN, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT  The Daily Mail

PUBLISHED: 14:40 EST, 19 September 2013 | UPDATED: 14:41 EST, 19 September 2013

Scientists working on the most authoritative study on climate change were urged to cover up the fact that the world’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years, it is claimed.

A leaked copy of a United Nations report, compiled by hundreds of scientists, shows politicians in Belgium, Germany, Hungary and the United States raised concerns about the final draft.
Published next week, it is expected to address the fact that 1998 was the hottest year on record and world temperatures have not yet exceeded it, which scientists have so far struggled to explain.The report is the result of six years’ work by UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is seen as the world authority on the extent of climate change and what is causing it – on which governments including Britain’s base their green policies.Concerns: Scientists have been urged to cover up the fact that the Earth’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years amid fears it would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate changeBut leaked documents seen by the Associated Press, yesterday revealed deep concerns among politicians about a lack of global warming over the past few years.Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change….Read more

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Analysis: How the IPCC hides the 20 year halt in global warming & exaggerates 20th century warming: ‘The temperature record has been repeatedly ‘adjusted’ to cool the past and warm the present’

How the IPCC hides the 20 year halt in global warming & exaggerates 20th century warming

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/how-ipcc-hides-20-year-halt-in-global.html

A new paper from SPPI & Christopher Monckton demonstrates how the IPCC et al hides the halt in global warming over the past 20 years by using decadal averages instead of showing the monthly satellite data, “a meme that has become a favorite with the apologists for Apocalypse: the most recent decade was warmer than earlier decades, so global warming is still getting worse.”

In addition, Monckton shows how the temperature record has been repeatedly “adjusted” to cool the past and warm the present, another statistical fraud of the global warming scam. 

“The effect of all these tamperings is to make it look as though there was more global warming in the 20th century than there was … So this statistical dodge neatly erases the past 12 years 8 months of the Pause. 

The priceless advantage of taking decadal averages, if one wants to magic the Pause away, is that it wipes out the entire trend of the most recent decade. One can dock off a further two years if, as here, one uses the decades 1991-2000, 2001-2010 etc., rather than 1993-2002, 2003-2012 etc. Finally, using decades docks off all the months of the current year. So this statistical dodge neatly erases the past 12 years 8 months of the Pause.”

For the Full Report in PDF Form, please click here.

[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]

In the 19th century, British Prime Ministers used to say there were “lies, damned lies, and statistics”. In the 21st century, we may say there are frauds, serious frauds, and IPCC Assessment Reports. Recall, for instance, the notorious graph in the Fourth Assessment Report that falsely indicated that the rate of global warming is accelerating and we are to blame. Using the same statistical dodge, one can show that a sine-wave has a rising trend.

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EPA used Obama’s ‘social cost of carbon’ trick to bankrupt the coal industry: ‘Used a controversial estimate of the monetary cost of carbon pollution to develop limits for greenhouse gases emissions from new power plants’

EPA used Obama’s ‘social cost of carbon’ trick to bankrupt the coal industry

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/epa-used-obamas-social-cost-of-carbon.html

The EPA used Obama’s “social cost of carbon” trick to bankrupt the coal industry.

EPA used disputed carbon metric to develop power plant rules

By Julian Hattem – 09/20/13  The Hill

The Obama administration used a controversial estimate of the monetary cost of carbon pollution to develop limits for greenhouse gases emissions from new power plants.

The draft rules, released on Friday, were crafted using a “social cost” of carbon metric that some Republicans have worried was developed behind closed doors.

But in acknowledging the use of the estimate on Friday, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Gina McCarthy said that the disputed estimate was developed through normal means that drew from the best science available.

“It went through a rulemaking process twice,” she said on Friday. “It’s in one now. If you’re concerned that we got that number wrong, put some comments in, but the federal government makes its decisions based on peer-reviewed science, whether that’s about health consequences or economic consequences.”

A federal interagency committee in May increased the number that government agencies use to estimate the effect that carbon pollution has on public health, agriculture and other factors. In June, that higher metric was released to the public through an otherwise uncontroversial Energy Department rule on microwave oven efficiency.

Conservatives have registered a formal petition to block that microwave oven rule because it includes the new carbon cost estimate. 

When defending the metric on Friday, McCarthy said that the administration did not change the underlying models to develop the metric, just the factors that went into it.

It was always the administration’s plan to review that carbon cost, she said, because “the science is changed.”

Related:

Obama’s ‘Social Cost of Carbon’ Trick

Obama’s increased ‘social cost of carbon’ raises ire of critics

MIT paper finds Obama’s ‘social cost of carbon’ models are bogus & based on fabricated numbers

Scathing MIT Paper Blasts Climate Models as ‘Close to Useless’ & ‘Can get any result one desires’

The EPA’s secret ‘settled science’

The Carbonated President: Obama unveils a war on fossil fuels he never disclosed as a candidate

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NYTimes debunks EPA’s new coal rules — None of expensive mandated technology sequesters carbon

NYTimes debunks EPA’s new coal rules — None of expensive mandated technology sequesters carbon

http://junkscience.com/2013/09/20/nytimes-debunks-epas-new-coal-rules-none-of-expensive-mandated-technology-sequesters-carbon/

The New York Times reports: …In the last few days, Ms. McCarthy has referred to several early-stage carbon capture projects as a sign that industry can build the needed equipment. In testimony on Wednesday before the House Energy and Power Subcommittee, Ms. McCarthy cited four such projects. She told reporters on Friday that the draft […]

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EPA chief to power generation industry: Your new coal plants will have to prevent non-existent CO2-induced bad weather by using extremely expensive CO2 capture technology that doesn’t work

EPA chief to power generation industry: Your new coal plants will have to prevent non-existent CO2-induced bad weather by using extremely expensive CO2 capture technology that doesn’t work

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/09/epa-chief-to-power-generation-industry.html

Challenges Await Plan to Reduce Emissions – NYTimes.comThe biggest carbon-capture project to date was at the American Electric Power’s Mountaineer plant in New Haven, W.Va. But Nicholas K. Akins, the company’s chairman and chief executive, said that technology was “definitely not ready for prime time.”Mountaineer was a pilot project. Equipping the whole plant would have cost $1 billion, he said, and driven up costs per kilowatt-hour by 60 to 80 percent.

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