The Climate Science Capitulation Begins…Hans von Storch: “We Definitely Have Seen Less Warming Than Expected”
Georg Ehring of German Public Radio conducted an interview with climate scientist Professor Hans von Storch, Director of the German Coastal Research Center.
The introductory text before the interview reads as follows:
The Earth has warmed considerably less than expected over the past 15 years days, says Hans von Storch. That may be due to an unforeseeable climate variability, or that CO2′s effect as a greenhouse gas was over-estimated, so says the meteorologist of the Coastal Research Institute.
If anything, this interview shows that German climate science is beginning a slow shift and that warmist scientists starting to come to terms with the real possibility that they have been wrong all these years – possibly very wrong. It also shows that they are admitting that climate is poorly understood. The science in nowhere near understood, let alone settled.
On whether global warming has stopped, Hans von Storch says: “No. We don’t expect that. But it is indeed true that we have seen a considerably reduced warming trend compared to what our climate model scenarios showed over the last 15 years. […] We definitely have seen less warming than we expected.”
On what the cause could be, von Storch says many candidates are possible, and it points to climate variability, which would be natural fluctuations, which is what skeptics have been saying from Day 1. He also says that perhaps the climate sensitivity of CO2 was perhaps “a bit over-estimated“. Hans von Storch even mentions the S-word, claiming that it could have something to do with the sun.
On whether or not it could be the oceans eating up the heat, von Storch says that it’s possible, and that “what is obvious here is that our climate models didn’t anticipate this“.
On if models can still be trusted? von Storch obstinately insists:
Yes, completely. […]. It could be that the climate models are completely okay and that nothing bad can be said about them. But we haven’t put all the ingredients which we believe are important for the future into them.”
A most peculiar statement. Bread without flour is not bread. A climate model that does not take a number of factors into account, or that does not weight them correctly, is not a model you can trust – period. Hans von Storch elaborates further, saying that aerosols and solar activity must be better taken into account (along with the ocean cycles he mentions above). What von Storch is trying to say here is that he and the climate scientists are completely stumped as to what’s wrong with the models.
Ehring then asks von Storch what is the most likely explanation for the warming stop? Hans von Storch answers that he can only rely on his instincts, and nothing more. He adds:
There are several hypotheses that have to be looked at in detail. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if it indeed turns out to be natural climate variations being under-estimated. That is the climate fluctuates more than we assumed.”
He then adds that this would have “serious consequences” for the understanding of climate and that as a scientist, “one must always keep possibilities open and be ready, in the case of doubt, to accept that the data in the end do not exactly fit the earlier explanation. … Us climate scientists do have some reasons to summon the courage to critically have another look to see if we really did everything okay.”
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