Warmists Admit: ‘We can’t say climate change caused the civil war’ in Syria
…Study: ‘All 65 climate-models used by IPCC to predict future impact of CO2 on climate – every last one of them – failed to foresee 17-year pause in temp rise’
…42nd Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 250,000 sq km of New Ice in 3 Days
42nd Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 250,000 sq km of New Ice in 3 Days
September 10th (Day 253) saw the 42nd Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. There has been 250,000 sq km of new ice in last 3 Days.
Click graph for bigger. Data is here.
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UN IPCC Calls In Moral Philosopher As People Cool On Global Warming: Critics mock: ‘They should be addressing basic questions of economic common sense, such as what’s the best way of spending money on climate change, not philosophical questions’
IPCC Calls In Moral Philosopher As People Cool On Global Warming
http://www.thegwpf.org/ipcc-calls-moral-philosopher-people-cool-global-warming/
Scientists have had only limited success persuading us to care about climate change so perhaps it is time to call in the philosophers. That appears to be the approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has engaged a philosopher to help to produce its forthcoming report on how to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
The report, the fifth of its kind since the IPCC was created in 1988, will focus more heavily on ethical issues than previous reports.
Abstract concepts, such as the relative importance of non-existent people and how much we value a second bathroom, will enter the debate alongside more mundane matters, such as how to insulate millions of lofts.
John Broome, Professor of Moral Philosophy at Oxford University, is one of the lead authors of the IPCC’s report on the mitigation of climate change, to be published next April.
Professor Broome’s role appears to be to rein in the economists in the IPCC team and remind them to take ethics into account when considering how much governments should spend on cutting emissions.
He argues that we should be thinking not simply about the impact our emissions will have on our grandchildren but also on non-existent generations, who will not be born because of population changes as parts of the world become less habitable
In an article for Scientific American, he wrote: “Many people, some living, others yet to be born, will die from the effects of climate change. Is each death equally bad? How bad are those deaths collectively? Many people will die before they bear children, so climate change will prevent the existence of children who would otherwise have been born. Is their non-existence a bad thing?”
He also said why we should be prepared to make sacrifices, such as travelling less, eating less meat and living “less lavishly” in order to observe the “elementary moral principle that you should not do something for your own benefit if it harms another person”.
“What we each do for our own benefit harms others,” he wrote. “Perhaps at the moment we cannot help it, and in the past we did not realise we were doing it. But the elementary moral principle tells us we should try to stop doing it and compensate the people we harm.”
Professor Broome is also an expert on the ethics of …
Review paper finds Medieval Warming Period was global and warmer than the present
Review paper finds Medieval Warming Period was global and warmer than the present
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/review-paper-finds-medieval-warming.html
A new review paper from SPPI and CO2 Science reviews the published literature on the Medieval Warming Period in South America and finds “(1) the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon that was comprised of even warmer intervals than the warmest portion of the Current Warm Period, and that (2) the greater warmth of the Medieval Warm Period occurred when there was far less CO2 in the air than there is nowadays, which facts clearly demonstrate that the planet’s current – but not unprecedented – degree of warmth need not have been CO2-induced.”
For the Full Report in PDF Form, please click here.
[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]
Excerpts:
Was there a Medieval Warm Period anywhere in addition to the area surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean, where its occurrence is uncontested? This question is of utmost importance to the ongoing global warming debate, since if there was, and if the locations where it occurred were as warm then as they are currently, there is no need to consider the temperature increase of the past century as anything other than the natural progression of the persistent millennial-scale oscillation of climate that regularly brings the earth several-hundred-year periods of modestly higher and lower temperatures that are totally independent of variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Hence, this question is here considered as it applies to South America, a region far removed from where the existence of the Medieval Warm Period was first recognized.
ST data indicate that the current level of warmth in that part of the world still has a long way to go before equaling the warmth experienced there a thousand and more years ago, which suggests that the region’s current level of warmth is neither unprecedented nor unnatural -and therefore need not be CO2-induced – as is also the case for most of the rest of the planet.
This finding of Neukom et al. goes a long ways towards demonstrating that: (1) the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon that was comprised of even warmer intervals than the warmest portion of the Current Warm Period, and that (2) the greater warmth of the Medieval Warm Period occurred when there was far less CO2 in the air than there is nowadays, which facts clearly demonstrate that the planet’s current – but not …
Settled science update: Oceanographers find enormous deep-sea waves that ‘play a crucial role in long-term climate cycles’
Settled science update: Oceanographers find enormous deep-sea waves that ‘play a crucial role in long-term climate cycles’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/settled-science-update-oceanographers.html
Settled science update: Oceanographers have recorded for the first time, in “a key bottleneck” of the Pacific Ocean, enormous 800-foot-tall deep-sea waves that “play a crucial role in long-term climate cycles.” “Climate models are really sensitive not only to how much turbulence there is in the deep ocean, but to where it is,” for which there is currently little to no data. According to the authors, “The primary importance of understanding deep-ocean turbulence is to get the climate models right on long timescales.” Indeed, natural ocean oscillations can alone explain half of the global warming of the 20th century, and the rest is explainable by global brightening and the sunspot time integral.
The deep-sea waves are 800 feet tall, as high as a skyscraper. (Credit: Tom Peacock, MIT | Wide Eye Productions)
Breaking Deep-Sea Waves, as High as a Skyscraper, Reveal Mechanism for Global Ocean Mixing
Sep. 9, 2013 — Waves breaking over sandy beaches are captured in countless tourist photos. But enormous waves breaking deep in the ocean are seldom seen, although they play a crucial role in long-term climate cycles.
A University of Washington study for the first time recorded such a wave breaking in a key bottleneck for circulation in the world’s largest ocean. The study was published online this month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.The deep ocean is thought of as dark, cold and still. While this is mostly true, huge waves form between layers of water of different density. These skyscraper-tall waves transport heat, energy, carbon and nutrients around the globe. Where and how they break is important for the planet’s climate.”Climate models are really sensitive not only to how much turbulence there is in the deep ocean, but to where it is,” said lead author Matthew Alford, an oceanographer in the UW Applied Physics Laboratory. He led the expedition to the Samoan Passage, a narrow channel in the South Pacific Ocean that funnels water flowing from Antarctica.”The primary importance of understanding deep-ocean turbulence is to get the climate models right on long timescales,” Alford said.Dense water in Antarctica sinks to the deep Pacific, where it eventually surges through a 25-mile gap in the submarine landscape northeast of Samoa.”Basically the entire South Pacific flow is blocked by this huge submarine ridge,” Alford said. “The amount of …
New paper finds IPCC climate models don’t realistically simulate convection: Published in Geophysical Research Letters finds climate models do not realistically simulate convection, ‘a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy’
New paper finds IPCC climate models don’t realistically simulate convection
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-ipcc-climate-models.html
More problems for the models: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds climate models do not realistically simulate convection, “a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy,” because of a large gap in the scale or resolution required to simulate convection [1-2 km] compared to global atmospheric motions [on the order of 10,000 km].
According to the authors, “It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10^0 km) and global motions (10^4 km).” The authors find “an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing. The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this [2 km] resolution,” which is a much, much smaller resolution than used by IPCC climate models.
Skeptics such as Dr. Noor van Andel have previously pointed out that the so-called “human fingerprint” or “hot spot” of global warming [that exists only in climate models] is a consequence of incorrect assumptions regarding convection, and this new paper may shed light on the reasons why.
Deep moist atmospheric convection in a sub-kilometer global simulationYoshiaki Miyamoto, Yoshiyuki Kajikawa, Ryuji Yoshida, Tsuyoshi Yamaura, Hisashi Yashiro, Hirofumi Tomita
Deep moist atmospheric convection is a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy. It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10^0 km) and global motions (10^4 km). We conducted the first ever sub-kilometer global simulation and described the features of convection. Through a series of grid-refinement resolution testing, we found that an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing. The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this resolution. The convection core was resolved using multiple grids in simulations with grid spacings less than 2.0 km.
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New paper finds grasslands are a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere – – Published in Biogeosciences ‘unexpectedly finds farmed grasslands are a net annual source of CO2 to the atmosphere, and also a weak methane sink to the atmosphere’
New paper finds grasslands are a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-grasslands-are-net.html
A paper published today in Biogeosciences unexpectedly finds farmed grasslands are a net annual source of CO2 to the atmosphere, and also a weak methane sink to the atmosphere. The authors studied 3 Swiss grasslands managed at different levels of intensity, one without fertilizer applied, one with moderate use, and one extensively managed with heavy use of fertilizer, but finds all three acted as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, finding “Mean annual soil and plant respiration losses of CO2, measured with opaque chambers, ranged from 5.2 to 6.5 μmol m−2 s−1.”
CO2 fluxes at 3 differently managed grasslands shown in bottom row of graphs. Positive values indicate a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Top graphs show grasslands are also a net source of the “greenhouse” gas N20, and middle graphs show grasslands are a weak sink for methane [CH4].
Biogeosciences, 10, 5931-5945, 2013www.biogeosciences.net/10/5931/2013/doi:10.5194/bg-10-5931-2013
Temporal and spatial variations of soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes at three differently managed grasslands
D. Imer, L. Merbold, W. Eugster, and N. BuchmannGrassland Sciences Group, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandAbstract. A profound understanding of temporal and spatial variabilities of soil carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is needed to reliably quantify these fluxes and to develop future mitigation strategies. For managed grassland ecosystems, temporal and spatial variabilities of these three soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes occur due to changes in environmental drivers as well as fertilizer applications, harvests and grazing. To assess how such changes affect soil GHG fluxes at Swiss grassland sites, we studied three sites along an altitudinal gradient that corresponds to a management gradient: from 400 m a.s.l. (intensively managed) to 1000 m a.s.l. (moderately intensive managed) to 2000 m a.s.l. (extensively managed). The alpine grassland was included to study both effects of extensive management on CH4 and N2O fluxes and the different climate regime occurring at this altitude. Temporal and spatial variabilities of soil GHG fluxes and environmental drivers on various timescales were determined along transects of 16 static soil chambers at each site. All three grasslands were N2O sources, with mean annual soil fluxes ranging from 0.15 to 1.28 nmol m−2 s−1. Contrastingly, all sites were weak CH4 sinks, with soil uptake rates ranging from −0.56 to −0.15 nmol …
UK Express: Global warming? No, the planet is getting cooler
UK Express: Global warming? No, the planet is getting cooler
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/uk-express-global-warming-no-planet-is.html
Global warming? No, the planet is getting cooler
MORE than a million square miles of Arctic seas have frozen in the past year as a new environmental trend takes hold, dubbed “global cooling”.
By: Cyril Dixon Published: Mon, September 9, 2013, The Daily Express
A polar bear with two cubs, which were thought to be at risk from melting sea ice
The extraordinary “reverse” of global warming has led to a 60 per cent rise in ice-covered ocean. Just six years ago, some scientists were predicting that all of this ice would have melted away by 2013.The big chill has persuaded some experts that temperatures will keep falling for decades and throws fresh doubts on claims that global warming will devastate the planet.Details of the latest twist in the debate emerged in a secret memo to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.It says that a chillier-than-usual summer has left a thick ice layer stretching from the Canadian islands to the northern coast of Russia. The ice prevented dozens of yachts and a cruiser getting through America’s North-West Passage.The memo surfaced days before the Arctic freeze is about to begin and six years after warnings that global warming would melt the ice by this winter. An ice-free Arctic was boldly predicted in a 2007 BBC report, which quoted Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.He said his grim but conservative estimate was provided by the most realistic computer models. Cambridge University expert Professor Peter Wadhams added: “This is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.”
Arctic: Global warming is now in reverse
On the back of the dire warnings, billions of pounds were invested in green measures to combat agents of climate change such as greenhouse gas emissions.But the secret UN memo reveals that the ice has spread quickly following the smallest ever frozen surface area, this time last year.It also shows how governments who fund the panel are terrified at the implications of the new predictions.They have demanded 1,500 alterations to a report the panel is due to publish – the six-yearly Assessment Report – to reflect the new climate predictions.UN chiefs have now planned a crisis meeting and a pre- summit gathering next month.Scientists believe future changes depend on the extent …
New paper finds ‘up to 30% discrepancy between modeled and observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere’
New paper finds ‘up to 30% discrepancy between modeled and observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere’
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-paper-finds-up-to-30-discrepancy.html
More problems for the climate models: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that there is “up to 30% discrepancy between the modeled and the observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere.” The authors attribute part of this large discrepancy, which would alone have a greater radiative forcing effect than all of the man-made CO2 in the atmosphere, to water vapor absorption in the near UV region, “But the magnitude of water vapor absorption in the near UV region at wavelengths shorter than 384 nm is not known.” The authors note, “Water vapor is [the most] important greenhouse gas in the earth’s atmosphere” and set out to discover [apparently for the first time] “The effect of the water vapor absorption in the 290-350 nm region on the modeled radiation flux at the ground level.”The influence of water vapor absorption in the 290-350 nm region on solar radiance: Laboratory studies and model simulationJuan Du 1, Li Huang 1, Qilong Min 2, Lei Zhu 1,3,*
Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas in the earth’s atmosphere. Absorption of the solar radiation by water vapor in the near UV region may partially account for the up to 30% discrepancy between the modeled and the observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere. But the magnitude of water vapor absorption in the near UV region at wavelengths shorter than 384 nm is not known. We have determined absorption cross sections of water vapor at 5 nm intervals in the 290-350 nm region, by using cavity ring-down spectroscopy. Water vapor cross section values range from 2.94 × 10-24 to 2.13 × 10-25 cm2/molecule in the wavelength region studied. The effect of the water vapor absorption in the 290-350 nm region on the modeled radiation flux at the ground level has been evaluated using radiative transfer model.
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