Review paper finds warming causes fewer hurricanes & little to no change of intensity
Review paper finds warming causes fewer hurricanes & little to no change of intensity
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/review-paper-finds-warming-causes-fewer.html
A review paper by SPPI & CO2 Science finds, contrary to claims by climate alarmists, that warming causes fewer Atlantic hurricanes and has little to no impact upon the intensity of hurricanes.
For the Full Report in PDF Form, please click here.
[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]
Excerpts:
Climate alarmists continue to claim that rising temperatures lead to ever more intense Atlantic Basin hurricanes. But are they correct? We here review the results of a number of studies that are germane to this question.
Several studies have actually found yearly hurricane numbers to decline as temperatures rise.
When all is said and done, they report that their results “show no significant trend in potential intensity from 1980 to 1995 and no consistent trend from 1975 to 1995.” What is more, they report that between 1975 and 1980, “while SSTs rose, PI decreased, illustrating the hazards of predicting changes in hurricane intensity from projected SST changes alone.”
The comparison of SSTs actually encountered by individual storms performed by Michaels et al. refutes the idea that anthropogenic activity has detectably influenced the severity of Atlantic basin hurricanes over the past quarter-century.
While some researchers have hypothesized that increases in long-term sea surface temperature may lead to marked increases in TC storm intensity, our findings demonstrate that various indicators of TC intensification show no significant trend over the recent three decades.
In addition to the growing body of empirical evidence that indicates global warming has little to no impact on the intensity of hurricanes, there is now considerable up-to-date model-based evidence for the same conclusion.
Clearly, the temperature/hurricane connection is nowhere near as “one-dimensional” as Al Gore and others make it out to be. Warming alone does not imply that hurricanes are getting stronger.
A future where relative SST controls Atlantic hurricane activity is a future similar to the recent past, with periods of higher and lower hurricane activity relative to present-day conditions due to natural climate variability, but with little long-term trend.
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‘I will act because there have been too many hurricanes’: Check out this 30-second climate video from EDF
“I will act because there have been too many hurricanes”: Check out this 30-second climate fraud video from EDF
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/08/will-act-because-there-have-been-too.html
“I Will” Act on Climate Change – YouTube[The opening line is “I will act because there have been too many hurricanes”; later a kid is depicted wearing an oxygen mask, presumably because of a CO2-induced asthma attack]New TV ads call on communities to say “I will” act on climate | Environmental Defense Fund(Washington, D.C. – August 6, 2013) Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) is launching a new TV ad campaign today calling on local communities to take action on climate change.The ads highlight the dangerous effects of climate change on local communities and say, “doing nothing is no longer an option.” Severe Weather Drought: Tornadoes drop to a new all time record low, major hurricane absence is setting a new record every day | Watts Up With That?[May 2013] it has been 2750 days (7 years, 6 months, 11 days) since the last major Hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) hit the USA on October 24th 2005 when hurricane Wilma made landfall. Each new day is a new record in this major hurricane drought.…
New Peer Reviewed Study: Medieval Warming Unprecedented In South America: ‘Latest research now confirms that South America was very hot during the Medieval Warming Period’
New Peer Reviewed Study: Medieval Warming Unprecedented In South America
As most scientists now recognize, the empirical studies that confirm the Medieval Warming to be unprecedented far outnumber those that statistically speculate otherwise – the latest research now confirms that South America was very hot during the Medieval Warming Period…
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Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke’s response to AGU Statement on Climate Change: ‘The Statement on Climate Change that was adopted by the majority on the Committee, unfortunately, does not provide an accurate summary of our understanding of climate change issues, and, thus, is not an effective policy framework to reduce risks from the climate system’
…Geophysical Union claims man to blame for global warming in official statement — but not all AGU board members agree
…More settled science: Land temperature isn’t rising, the heat’s hiding in the ocean, AND “The rate of increase in ocean temperature due to climate change is one third of the rate of increase in land temperature.”?!
More settled science: Land temperature isn’t rising, the heat’s hiding in the ocean, AND “The rate of increase in ocean temperature due to climate change is one third of the rate of increase in land temperature.”?!
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/08/more-settled-science-land-temperature.html
Ocean life reaction to climate change is faster than land life – National Paeleontology | Examiner.comThe researchers found that ocean life is moving toward the poles at a rate of 45 miles per decade. This is 11 times as fast as the rate that terrestrial life is moving northward in response to increasing temperatures caused by climate change. The rate of increase in ocean temperature due to climate change is one third of the rate of increase in land temperature.
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Who are the Deniers: ‘Who denies natural climate change?’
Who are the Deniers.
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2013/08/who-are-deniers.html
Who are the Deniers? by Dr Gordon J Fulks Global Warmers are forever calling those of us who disagree with them ‘Deniers.’ This thinly veiled reference to the Holocaust and the murder of six million people is far from appropriate. Do Skeptics deny the Holocaust and the science? Of course not, but it brings up an interesting question: Who denies natural climate change? Who denies the importance of variable solar irradiance and the possible importance of solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays? Who denies that our Sun is a variable star? Who denies that our oceans contain the vast majority of mobile heat on this planet and therefore dominate our climate, year to year and decade to decade? Who denies the importance of natural ocean cycles like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), discovered by researchers studying salmon? Who denies clear cyclical variations in our climate, easily traceable to ocean cycles? Who denies that our recent warming commenced about 1830, long before significant burning of fossil fuels? Who denies that ice core data clearly show that recent warming is consistent with previous warm periods, like the Medieval, Roman, and Minoan? Who denies that CO2 lags temperature in the ice core data by as much as 800 years and hence is a product of climate change not a cause? Who denies 150 years of chemical measurements of atmospheric CO2 that suggest that ice core reconstructions of past CO2 concentrations are low by 60 ppm? Who denies that the global temperature went down for three decades after World War II, despite significant increases in human emissions of CO2 due to industrialization? Who denies that water vapor is the primary greenhouse gas and by far the dominant climate gas, not CO2? Who denies that increasing CO2 is a substantial benefit to plants and therefore helps us feed the seven billion people on this planet? Who denies that our oceans are alkaline not acidic and can never turn acidic because of buffering? Who denies that the EPA’s three “Lines of Evidence” supporting their Endangerment Finding on CO2 are all fatally flawed? Who denies the leveling off of the Global Temperature for the past 15 years? Who denies that the ‘Hotspot’ (required by Global Warming theory) does not exist in the tropical troposphere? Who denies that all 73 computerized climate models are epic failures? Who denies that theories which fail validation …
Danish Meteorological Institute: Arctic Sea Ice Now 1.7 Million Square Kilometers Over Last Year — That’s 19,000 Manhattans
Danish Meteorological Institute: Arctic Sea Ice Now 1.7 Million Square Kilometers Over Last Year!
That’s 19,000 Manhattans. Arctic open sea water is in a death spiral!
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
The chart shows this year’s current sea ice at about 5.2 million sq. km. Last year it was about 3.5 million sq. km. That’s an increase of almost 50%!
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Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture: ‘History is full of terrible storms when carbon dioxide levels were much lower than today. Ice core temperature reconstructions from Greenland clearly show us that weather is much more extreme when the earth is colder, not warmer’
Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Department of Agriculture
Steven Reviczky
State of Connecticut Department of Agriculture
165 Capital Avenue
Hartford, CT 06106
Art Horn, Meteorologist
185 Pine street # 308
Manchester, CT 06040
Saturday 8/3/13
Mr. Reviczky,
I am a meteorologist and climate researcher with 37 years of experience in the field. For twenty five of those years I worked as a television meteorologist with 13 of those years being at NBC30 in west Hartford.
One of the reasons we teach people about history is to give them ability to place current events into their proper context. The same can be said about weather history. Those who do not know the history of weather do not know how to place current events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves and all other types of weather phenomena into their proper context. If one does not know weather history than that person might think that all “unusual” weather is new and unprecedented.
In a July 30th, 2013 Associated Press story titled “Connecticut warns of dire climate change consequences” you were quoted as saying “You can see what’s happening”. You went on to say “The intensity of storms is pretty significant. The damage has been equally significant.” I would agree with both of those statements but I believe what you were trying to convey was that storms are becoming more severe and more frequent in Connecticut than in the past. I could be wrong.
Connecticut has experienced four tornadoes this summer. This is not unprecedented or unusual. Outbreaks of three or more tornadoes on a single day occurred in 1786, 1787, 1878, 1973, 1989, 1998 and 2001. In 1973 there were 8 tornadoes on 6 different days.
Connecticut averages about one tornado a year so they are not unknown or unusual here. In addition, our ability to detect tornadoes is significantly better than in the past. There has been no increase in the number of tornadoes nationally nor here in Connecticut. The long term trend in strong to violent tornadoes nationally is actually down since the 1970s.
The Associated Press story was written by Stephen Singer who wrote that Connecticut was struck by Tropical Storm Irene in August of 2011, a “freak” snow storm in late October of that year and “Super Storm” Sandy in late October of 2012. I believe he was trying to imply that …
Note to Broadcast Meteorologists pressured by News Directors or Forecast the Facts: ‘They [Warmists] want broadcasters to tie virtually every weather (and other) extreme, to our use of fossil fuel and not attempt to explain these events with natural factors or cycles’
Note to Broadcast Meteorologists pressured by News Directors or Forecast the Facts
Joseph D’Aleo, AMS, Fellow of the AMS
We have heard tales of broadcasters who dare express some degree of skepticism in the blogs or twitter or sometimes on air, being scolded at by News Directors or outside advocacy groups like Forecast the Facts (funded by the Center for American Progress, a George Soros advocacy group) claiming to be a grassroots organization, whichs conduct letter writing campaigns to attack them with station management. Their launch coincided with the AMS Annual meeting in 2012 where they disrupted the council meeting to lobby the society to make a stronger statement and exert pressure on broadcasters. On their site Forecast the Facts lists their mission:
Forecast the Facts is dedicated to ensuring that Americans hear the truth about climate change: that temperatures are increasing, human activity is largely responsible, and that our world is already experiencing the effects. We do this by empowering everyday people to speak out in the face of misinformation and hold accountable those who mislead the public.
In other words, they want broadcasters to tie virtually every weather (and other) extreme, to our use of fossil fuel and not attempt to explain these events with natural factors or cycles.
Dr Neil Frank, former Director of NHC and long time Houston, Texas on-air meteorologist and Dr William Gray, CSU hurricane forecast pioneer and I sent a strongly worded statement to the AMS in which we started with our view on the real state of the climate::
The UKMO and Rajendra Pachauri have admitted to no warming for the past 16 or 17 years. James Hansen has agreed it is at least a decade. Any significant warming since 1979 was not global but confined to north of 20N. Even the heat records last year, if you only look at stations with 80+ year history, were but a blip compared to the 1930s. These records, you should know, are not altered like station temperatures used for climate analyses. Moreover, global hurricane frequency is at a 30+year low and strong tornado trends are down. There is no trend long term in droughts and floods. Snow and cold have been increasing in winter not decreasing as the IPCC and NOAA climate reports have forecasted. We have seen deceleration in sea level rises.
Both weather balloon and satellite data clearly indicate that there …