New paper supports planetary theory of solar variation — Published in Astrophysics & Space Science

New paper supports planetary theory of solar variation

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-supports-planetary-theory-of.html

A new paper by Dr. Nicola Scafetta & Dr. Richard Willson, published in Astrophysics & Space Science, finds additional evidence supporting the planetary theory of solar variation, that gravitational effects from the planets explain solar cycles. Prior analysis has shown that planetary harmonics correlate with solar activity and subsequent climate change via a variety of solar amplification mechanisms.Empirical evidences for a planetary modulation of total solar irradiance and the TSI signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycleNicola Scafetta, Richard C. Willson
Abstract: The time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite observations since 1978 provided by ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are studied. We find empirical evidence for planetary-induced forcing and modulation of solar activity. Power spectra and direct data pattern analysis reveal a clear signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle, in particular during solar cycle 23 maximum. This appears to suggest that the Jupiter side of the Sun is slightly brighter during solar maxima. The effect is observed when the Earth crosses the Sun-Jupiter conjunction line every 1.09 years. Multiple spectral peaks are observed in the TSI records that are coherent with known planetary harmonics such as the spring, orbital and synodic periods among Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter: the Mercury-Venus spring-tidal cycle (0.20 year); the Mercury orbital cycle (0.24 year); the Venus-Jupiter spring-tidal cycle (0.32 year); the Venus-Mercury synodic cycle (0.40 year); the Venus-Jupiter synodic cycle (0.65 year); and the Venus-Earth spring tidal cycle (0.80 year). Strong evidence is also found for a 0.5-year TSI cycle that could be driven by the Earth’s crossing the solar equatorial plane twice a year and may indicate a latitudinal solar-luminosity asymmetry. Because both spring and synodic planetary cycles appear to be present and the amplitudes of their TSI signatures appear enhanced during sunspot cycle maxima, we conjecture that on annual and sub-annual scales both gravitational and electro-magnetic planet-sun interactions and internal non-linear feedbacks may be modulating solar activity. Gravitational tidal forces should mostly stress spring cycles while electro-magnetic forces could be linked to the solar wobbling dynamics, and would mostly stress the synodic cycles. The observed statistical coherence between the TSI records and the planetary harmonics is confirmed by three alternative tests.

Sent by gReader Pro…

New papers call into question the global sea surface temperature record — Published in Ocean Science

New papers call into question the global sea surface temperature record

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-papers-call-into-question-global.html

Two new companion papers published in Ocean Science call into question the data and methods used to construct global sea surface temperature records of the past 150 years. The authors find that measurements taken from ship engine cooling intakes can be “overly-warm by greater than 0.5°C on some vessels,” which by way of comparison is about the same magnitude as the alleged global sea surface temperature warming since 1870. 

Furthermore, the authors “report the presence of strong near-surface temperature gradients day and night, indicating that intake and bucket measurements cannot be assumed equivalent in this region. We thus suggest bucket and buoy measurements be considered distinct from intake measurements due to differences in sampling depth. As such, we argue for exclusion of intake temperatures from historical SST datasets and suggest this would likely reduce the need for poorly field-tested bucket adjustments. We also call for improvement in the general quality of intake temperatures from Voluntary Observing Ships… We suggest that reliable correction for such warm errors is not possible since they are largely of unknown origin and can be offset by real near-surface temperature gradients.”

Data sets combining ship intake and bucket measurements show ~0.5C warming since 1870, but this new paper argues that the two types of measurement are from different sampling depths and should not be combined. Graph source: Bob Tisdale via WUWT

For more on the ship intake vs. buckets issue and the questionable adjustments involved, see these posts at WUWT & links to Climate Audit:

Historical Sea Surface Temperature Adjustments/Corrections aka “The Bucket Model”…

Buckets, Inlets, SST’s and all that – part 1

Resolving the biases in century-scale sea surface temperature measurements reveals some interesting patterns

Full papers available here:
Comparing historical and modern methods of sea surface temperature measurement – Part 1: Review of methods, field comparisons and dataset adjustmentsJ. B. R. MatthewsSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CanadaAbstract. Sea surface temperature (SST) has been obtained from a variety of different platforms, instruments and depths over the past 150 yr. Modern-day platforms include ships, moored and drifting buoys and satellites. Shipboard methods include temperature measurement of seawater sampled by bucket and flowing through engine cooling water intakes. Here I review SST measurement methods, studies analysing shipboard methods by field or lab experiment and adjustments applied to historical SST …

New paper finds climate change over decades primarily determined by the oceans — Published in journal Nature

New paper finds climate change over decades primarily determined by the oceans

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-finds-climate-change-over.html

A new paper published in Nature finds climate change over timescales longer than 10 years is “primarily determined by the ocean,” which skeptics, including famed Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science Dr. William Gray, have been saying for years. According to the paper, “the ocean significantly affects long term climate fluctuations, while the seemingly chaotic atmosphere is mainly responsible for the shorter-term, year-to-year changes.” 

According to the authors, “Our findings suggest that the predictability of mid-latitude North Atlantic air–sea interaction could extend beyond the ocean to the climate of surrounding continents,” corroborating the many papers which have demonstrated that ocean oscillations control land-based climate as well.   

North Atlantic region, dark blue area was used for temperature data, red area for the heat flux. (Credit: C. Kersten, GEOMAR)

Deciphering the Air-Sea Communication: Ocean Significantly Affects Long-Term Climate FluctuationsJuly 25, 2013 — Why does hurricane activity vary from decade to decade? Or rainfall in the Sahel region? And why are the trans-Atlantic changes frequently in sync? A German-Russian research team has investigated the role of heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere in long-term climate variability in the Atlantic. The scientists analyzed meteorological measurements and sea surface temperatures over the past 130 years. It was found that the ocean significantly affects long term climate fluctuations, while the seemingly chaotic atmosphere is mainly responsible for the shorter-term, year-to-year changes.

The study appears in the current issue of the journal Nature, and provides important information on the predictability of long-term climate fluctuations.How do the ocean and atmosphere communicate? What information do they exchange, and what are the results? These are questions that climate scientists must ask, especially if they want to understand the cause of natural climate fluctuations of varying duration. These fluctuations superimpose the general global warming trend since the beginning of industrialization and thus complicate the accurate determination of human influence on the climate. The causes and mechanisms of natural climate variability, however, are poorly understood. A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.The presumption of such predictability potential has been around for more than half a century. In 1964, the Norwegian climate researcher Jacob Bjerknes postulated different causes of climate variability …

Record Ice Expansion at South Pole: 22nd Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

22nd Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/22nd-daily-record-of-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent

August 3 (Day 215) saw the 22nd Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. This is the 11th daily record in a row.
2013 is now closing in on the record for the 3rd and 4th number of daily records in a year (2006 and 2012).

Year
No of Records

2008
125

2010
117

2006
27

2012
27

2013
22

2007
21

2009
8

2004
5

1998
4

2000
4

2005
3

1979
2

1980
1

Click graph for bigger. Data is here.…

New paper finds N. Atlantic ocean heat content & sea levels controlled by the natural Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO] — Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

New paper finds N. Atlantic ocean heat content & sea levels controlled by the natural Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO]

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-finds-n-atlantic-ocean-heat.html

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans finds ocean heat content and sea levels in the Northern North Atlantic are associated with the cycles of the natural Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO, also referred to as AMV]. The authors find the warming evident in sea levels and ocean heat content in the N. Atlantic during the satellite era [since 1979] “represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase” and note “an abrupt change 2009–2010 [in N. Atlantic sea levels] reaching a new minimum in 2010.” 

The AMO, also sometimes referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability [AMV], is an approximate ~70 year natural climate cycle that is highly correlated to Northern hemisphere and global temperature change. 
Northern North Atlantic sea surface height and ocean heat content variabilitySirpa Häkkinen, Peter B. Rhines, Denise L. Worthen

Abstract: The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0–700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955–2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress “gyre mode” bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009–2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC’s arteries are rich with decade-to-century …