U.S. coal burning up 11% in 2013; Gas use down 14%; CO2 emissions increasing 2013-14
The Los Angeles Times reports: Power plants in the United States are burning coal more often to generate electricity, reversing the growing use of natural gas and threatening to increase domestic emissions of greenhouse gases after a period of decline, according to a federal report. Coal’s share of total domestic power generation in the first […]…
New article in Nature laments the dismal failure of climate models: ‘The dramatic warming predicted after 2008 has yet to arrive’
New article in Nature laments the dismal failure of climate models
An article published today in Nature laments the dismal failure of climate models to predict climate a mere 5 years into the future:
“The dramatic warming predicted after 2008 has yet to arrive.”
“It’s fair to say that the real world warmed even less than our forecast suggested,” [modeller] Smith says. “We don’t really understand at the moment why that is.” “
Although I have nothing against this endeavour as a research opportunity, the papers so far have mostly served as a ‘disproof of concept’,” says Gavin Schmidt. Schmidt says that these efforts are “a little misguided”. He argues that it is difficult to attribute success or failure to any particular parameter because the inherent unpredictability of weather and climate is built into both the Earth system and the models. “It doesn’t suggest any solutions,” he says.
“Because the climate does not usually change drastically from one year to the next, the model is bound to start off predicting conditions that are close to reality. But that effect quickly wears off as the real climate evolves. If this is the source of the models’ accuracy, that advantage fades quickly after a few years.”
“Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, says that it could be a decade or more before this research really begins to pay off in terms of predictive power, and even then climate scientists will be limited in what they can say about the future.”
Once again, modellers attempt to explain away their failures due to the dubious excuse of Trenberth’s “missing heat” sinking undetected to the bottom of the ocean.
Efforts to predict the near-term climate are taking off, but their record so far has been patchy.
10 July 2013 Nature
In August 2007, Doug Smith took the biggest gamble of his career. After more than ten years of work with fellow modellers at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, Smith published a detailed prediction of how the climate would change over the better part of a decade1. His team forecasted that global warming would stall briefly and then pick up speed, sending the planet into record-breaking territory within a few years.
The Hadley prediction has not fared particularly well. Six years on, global temperatures have yet to shoot up as it …
Half Way Through The North Pole Melt Season – Still The Coldest Summer On Record
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut The sun is getting lower in the sky now, and temperatures near the North Pole have been record cold this summer.…
Obama admin awards $31.2 million so warmists can predict what climate will be like in 10 years
The National Science Foundation announced: What will Earth’s climate be like in a decade–or sooner? And what will it be like where you live, and around the globe? To help find answers, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and other federal agencies have awarded new grants to study the consequences of climate variability and change. The […]…