Study: Small birds versatile enough to cope with climate change

Study: Small birds versatile enough to cope with climate change – latimes.com http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-birds-climate-change-20130709,0,259777.story

Despite the potential havoc wreaked by climate change, it’s not all doom and gloom for our planet. A new study projects that certain types of short-lived, small birds will easily withstand global warming throughout this century, even under worst-case carbon emissions scenarios.

Most studies predicting species’ fates due to global warming rely on models that assume species can survive only in the environmental conditions in which they currently live. But doing so ignores the possibility that species can adapt to a changing environment, said Ben Sheldon, an ornithologist at the University of Oxford and the senior author of the study, published Tuesday in PLOS Biology.

There are two main ways species can cope with a rising thermostat — by evolving or by being versatile. The former requires genetic changes in a short amount of time within a population. The latter, a concept biologists call phenotypic plasticity, involves adjusting to fit in, like a high school kid who can float in the nerd, jock and Goth crowds. For a bird, it means changing appearance or behavior to take advantage of a changing environment.  Sheldon and his team wanted to know which mechanism, if any, birds were using to adapt to climate change.

For more than 50 years, scientists had been monitoring birds called great tits in a woodland near Oxford. The famed ornithologist David Lack established the study site in an area called Wytham Woods, setting out nest boxes for the resident great tits and recording every aspect of the population’s dynamics.

Great tits are especially useful for studying adaptation because their behavior is tightly linked to an environmental cue: They lay their eggs to hatch when their prey, winter moth caterpillars, are most abundant. The caterpillars’ emergence is based on the time at which trees blossom in spring, which in turn is affected by temperature.

Sheldon and his predecessors made and studied records of temperature, timing of caterpillars’ emergence and birds’ first egg laying, and changes in the bird populations to see if the great tits’ egg-laying behavior had changed as the climate warmed over the last 50 years. They found that on average, the birds had shifted their egg-laying time two weeks earlier in the year since the study began in 1960.

Though some female birds only reproduced once in their lifetime, many reproduced in multiple …

The key to predicting climate change? Just study the temperature of earthworm poo, say scientists

The key to predicting climate change? Just study the temperature of earthworm poo, say scientists

http://junkscience.com/2013/07/09/the-key-to-predicting-climate-change-just-study-the-temperature-of-earthworm-poo-say-scientists

The Daily Mail reports: Scientists have revealed the key to predicting climate change – and it lies in the excrement produced by earthworms. Researchers from the University of York and the University of Reading discovered that earthworm faeces – also known as casting – contain tiny granules of calcite. After keeping different earthworms at different […]…

Matt Ridley responds: ‘Phil Plait’s understanding of the literature in this area is very superficial and out of date’

Matt Ridley responds: ‘Phil Plait’s understanding of the literature in this area is very superficial and out of date’

http://junkscience.com/2013/07/09/matt-ridley-responds-phil-plaits-understanding-of-the-literature-in-this-area-is-very-superficial-and-out-of-date

The Wall Street Journal reports: A post on slate.com criticized Matt Ridley’s Mind & Matter column, “Science Is About Evidence, Not Consensus,” in the Saturday-Sunday Review section of the Wall Street Journal. Below, Mr. Ridley responds: Sadly, Phil Plait’s understanding of the literature in this area is very superficial and out of date. He also […]

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Murry Salby and Macquarie University

Murry Salby and Macquarie University

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2013/07/murry-salby-and-macquarie-university.html

The Climategate emails exposed the story of how a journal editor was attacked by the alarmists for Prof Murry Salbyapproving an article contrary to the falsified AGW hypothesis.The emails will track how annoyance at the publication of a ‘contrary’ article in a journal develops into an attack on the editor, Chris de Freitas, an accomplished scientist. The attack includes a plot to see if they can get him sacked from his job at University of Auckland. Within the story, it is evident exactly what kind of ‘scientists’ the key authors are. The word scientist applied to these people has denigrated the meaning of the word. (link)Recently we have seen the alarmists force several scientists out of their university posts.The story of Don Easterbrook’s departure from Western Washington University can be found here – http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/peer-review-vs-smeer-review.htmlMore recently Professor Bob Carter was black-balled by James Cook University – http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/jcu-caves-in-to-badgering-and-groupthink-blackballs-politically-incorrect-bob-carter/Now Murry Salby is the latest to suffer this fate.  Here is Murry’s story:Thanks for your interest in the research presented during my recent lecture tour in Europe.http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/06/another-nail-in-the-climate-change-coffin.phpRemarks from several make it clear that Macquarie Universityis comfortable with openly disclosing the state of affairs,if not distorting them to its convenience. So be it.Macquarie’s liberal disclosure makes continued reticence unfeasible.In response to queries is the following, a matter of record:1. In 2008, I was recruited from the US by “Macquarie University”,with appointment as Professor, under a national employment contract withregulatory oversight, and with written agreement that Macquarie would providespecified resources to enable me to rebuild my research program in Australia.Included was technical support to convert several hundred thousand lines of computer code,comprising numerical models and analyses (the tools of my research),to enable those computer programs to operate in Australia.2. With those contractual arrangements, I relocated to Australia.  Upon attempting to rebuild my research program, Macquarie advised thatthe resources it had agreed to provide were unavailable. I was given an excuse for why.Half a year later, I was given another excuse. Then another.Requests to release the committed resources were ignored.3. Three years passed before Macquarie produced even the first major componentof the resources it had agreed to provide. After five years of cat-and-mouse,Macquarie has continued to withhold the resources that it had committed.As a result, my computer models and analyses remain inoperative.4. A bright student from Russia came to Macquarie to work with me.Macquarie required her to abandon her PhD …

Proof the UN Doesn’t Believe There’s a Climate Crisis: ‘Five years after they said they’d get right on it, more than one-quarter of UN organizations have done nothing about their carbon footprint’

Proof the UN Doesn’t Believe There’s a Climate Crisis

http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2013/07/proof-un-doesnt-believe-theres-climate.html

Five years after they said they’d get right on it, more than one-quarter of UN organizations have done nothing about their carbon footprint.Read the rest here. This blog has relocated. You can sign up to receive an e-mail each time a new post is added under the “Email subscription” bar a little below the photo.NoFrakkingConsensus has a Facebook page.…

New paper finds another mechanism by which the Sun controls climate: Published today in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

New paper finds another mechanism by which the Sun controls climate

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/07/new-paper-finds-another-mechanism-by.html

A paper published today in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology finds climate change in the NE Pacific over the past ~5000 years has been strongly related to solar activity. The paper also finds yet another solar amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate, stating, “High solar activity … may have been manifested as a prolonged westward shift and/or weakening of the Aleutian Low in the mid-late Holocene, which would have diverted fewer North Pacific storms and resulted in the relatively dry conditions reconstructed for the [NE Pacific].” The Aleutian Low is one of the main centers of action of the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere. The IPCC claims tiny variations in solar activity cannot affect climate, but this paper and hundreds of others demonstrate solar activity has greatly amplified effects upon climate via ocean oscillations, stratospheric ozone, sunshine hours/clouds, and atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation, and Aleutian Low.

Climate change and decadal to centennial-scale climate periodicities recorded in a late Holocene NE Pacific marine record: Examining the role of solar forcing

J.M. Galloway et al

Highlights

Climate proxy data from NE Pacific Late Holocene sediments

Dry climate interval between 2948-2708 cal. yr BP and c. 1992-1727 cal. yr BP

The record contains periodicities of c. 42-53, 60-70, 82-89, 241-243, and 380 yrs

Periodicities are replicated in reconstructed sunspot data

Periodicities may reflect Gleissberg and Suess/de Vries solar cycles

Abstract

We present a decadal-scale late Holocene climate record based on diatoms, biogenic silica, and grain size from a 12-m sediment core (VEC02A04) obtained from Frederick Sound in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of British Columbia, Canada. Sediments are characterized by graded, massive, and laminated intervals. Laminated intervals are most common between c. 2948-2708 cal. yr BP and c. 1992-1727 cal. yr BP. Increased preservation of laminated sediments and diatom assemblage changes at this time suggest that climate became moderately drier and cooler relative to the preceding and succeeding intervals. Spectral and wavelet analyses are used to test for statistically significant periodicities in time series of proxies of primary production (total diatom abundance, biogenic silica) and hydrology (grain size) preserved in the Frederick Sound record. Periodicities of c. 42-53, 60-70, 82-89, 241-243, and 380 yrs are present. Results are compared to reconstructed sunspot number data of Solanki et al. (2004) using cross wavelet transform to evaluate the …

The Increasing Trend In Climate Calamities

The Increasing Trend In Climate Calamities

http://notrickszone.com/2013/07/05/the-increasing-trend-in-climate-calamities/

By Ed Caryl
The climate calamitologists depend on a continuous calamity supply: high temperature records, the occasional flood, forest fires, tornadoes striking cities, and hurricanes wiping out coastal areas, preferably the heavily populated. Some tropical storm Sandy damage to Staten Island will probably remain un-repaired simply because it is proximate to New York City and all the media therein. It’s very handy for photo-ops and as background for TV climate docu-drama talking heads. As everyone seems to be making money from these copyrighted pictures, none are included here.
The current spate of stories about temperature records in the western U. S. is a case in point. These temperature “records” are all produced by locations that are designed to produce temperature records. The automated station at Bad Water in Death Valley is just one example. As John Daly pointed out, and Anthony Watts reiterated, the station is backed up against a western-facing cliff, right in front of a black-top highway and centered on the black-top parking area, with a white salt pan to the west to reflect the afternoon heat. Just go to Google Street View on the highway and spin the view around. The whole area looks like a giant boy-scout solar bake-oven. Sooner or later, this spot will produce a world record high temperature, which will be publicized across the world as proof of global warming/climate change/extreme weather, or whatever the buzz-phrase de jour.
Another example is Mercury, Nevada. You don’t suppose the name refers to the local summer temperature, do you? Both weather stations there are at the airport (of course). The station next the the asphalt is the one setting records (of course). One gets tired of pointing out that all weather stations at airports are surrounded by large expanses of tarmac (Black), and little else, except the occasional taxiing jet hairdryer-on-steroids. Both airports and aircraft have increased in size during this period of “global warming.” Could there possibly be a connection? I still await that article in the approved, peer-reviewed literature.
The loss of 19 firefighters in Arizona during a west coast heat wave was a gift from heaven for the Calamitologists. But please don’t notice that they died attempting to save homes built in a forest. These homes should not have been there, or at least should have been protected by firebreaks constructed before the fire and not …

Ed Hawkins on the ‘Hottest Decade’: ‘These statements are misleading’

Ed Hawkins on the “Hottest Decade”

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/ed-dawkins-on-the-hottest-decade

By Paul Homewood
 
h/t Paul Matthews
 
I posted yesterday on the recent WMO report claiming:-
 
“The decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented. Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far-reaching implications for our environment and our oceans.”
   

Ed Hawkins, climate scientist at the National Centre of Atmospheric Science of the  University of Reading, has made similar comments.

 
From his blog, Climate Lab Book:-
 
A recent press release by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) described recent global temperature changes, and highlighted extreme weather in the 2001-2010 period. Much of the press release is good, but here I will examine the accuracy of two statements.
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud: “WMO’s report shows that global warming was significant from 1971 to 2010 and that the decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented.”

“The decadal rate of increase in the global temperature accelerated between 1971 and 2010.”

This first is not a very clear phrase. What does ‘significant’ mean, and what does a ‘decadal rate of increase’ mean? But, it suggests that the increase from the average of 1991-2000 to the average of 2001-2010 was unprecedented, and the second phrase suggests an acceleration in the rate of increase in global temperatures. These statements are misleading.
The figure below shows a similar bar graph to that used by the WMO showing averages of particular 10-year periods using HadCRUT4. The top panel shows the changes using the same definition as the WMO, with decades finishing with years ending in zero (i.e. 2001-2010, 1991-2000 etc). The largest change from decade to decade is indeed the last change, at +0.21K.
The bottom panel repeats the analysis but defining decades to end in a two (i.e. 2003-2012, 1993-2002 etc). Now, the largest change (or even second or third largest) change is not to the most recent decade. And, in fact, the largest observed decadal increase is actually from the average of 1987-1996 to the average of 1997-2006, at +0.24K.
Note firstly that different temperature datasets will give slightly different warming rates. However, 2001-2010 is the warmest 10-year period in the instrumental record. This is evidence enough of a warmer climate, but NOT of an accelerated warming rate.

http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2013/wmo-report/

Warmist Paul Ehrlich on Rush Limbaugh’s and James Inhofe’s lack of fear of trace amounts of CO2: “They’re killing our grandkids”

Warmist Paul Ehrlich on Rush Limbaugh’s and James Inhofe’s lack of fear of trace amounts of CO2: “They’re killing our grandkids”

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2013/07/warmist-paul-ehrlich-on-rush-limbaugh.html

Twitter / PaulREhrlich: #CLIMATE: Read slowly to Rush, …#CLIMATE: Read slowly to Rush, Rick, Inhofe and other Republithug denier morons http://bit.ly/19XHvDL . They’re killing our grandkids.…