NPR Shock Report: ‘The Inconvenient Truth About Polar Bears’ — ‘There are far more polar bears alive today than there were 40 years ago’

by NPR STAFF February 02, 2013


In 2008, reports of polar bears’ inevitable march toward extinction gripped headlines. Stories of thinning Arctic ice and even polar bear cannibalism combined to make these predators into a powerful symbol in the debate about climate change.

The headlines caught Zac Unger’s attention, and he decided to write a book about the bears.

Unger made a plan to move to Churchill, Manitoba, a flat, gray place on the Hudson Bay in northern Canada accessible only by train or plane. For a few months out of the year, as the bay starts to freeze, tiny Churchill boasts as many polar bears as it does people.

Unger packed up his wife and three small kids, and set out with a big bold idea. He wanted to write the quintessential requiem of how human-caused climate change was killing off these magnificent beasts.

In the end, he came away with something totally different, Unger tells NPR’s Laura Sullivan.

Interview Highlights

On wanting to write the next great environmental tract

“My humble plan was to become a hero of the environmental movement. I was going to go up to the Canadian Arctic, I was going to write this mournful elegy for the polar bears, at which point I’d be hailed as the next coming of John Muir and borne aloft on the shoulders of my environmental compatriots …

“So when I got up there, I started realizing polar bears were not in as bad a shape as the conventional wisdom had led me to believe, which was actually very heartening, but didn’t fit well with the book I’d been planning to write.

“… There are far more polar bears alive today than there were 40 years ago. … In 1973, there was a global hunting ban. So once hunting was dramatically reduced, the population exploded. This is not to say that global warming is not real or is not a problem for the polar bears. But polar bear populations are large, and the truth is that we can’t look at it as a monolithic population that is all going one way or another.”

Top Swedish Climate Scientist Says Warming Not Noticeable: ‘The warming we have had last a 100 years is so small that if we didn’t have climatologists to measure it we wouldn’t have noticed it at all’

‘ The Earth appears to have cooling properties that exceeds the previous thought ones, and that computer models are inadequate to try to foretell a chaotic object like the climate, where actual observations is the only way to go’

Top Swedish Climate Scientist Dr. Lennart Bengtsson: CO2”s ‘heating effect is logarithmic: the higher the concentration is, the smaller the effect of a further increase’ — Dr. Lennart Bengtsson: ‘The sea level has risen fairly evenly for a hundred years by 2-3 millimeters per year. The pitch is not accelerated’

‘Climate change has become extremely politicized. The issue is so complex that one can not ask the people to be convinced that the whole economic system must be changed just because you have done some computer simulations’

Translated article here.

http://www.issibern.ch/~bengtsson/

THE CLIMATE

“We are creating a huge anxiety, but it is justified”

Published today 06:23

Photo: Christine Olsson / Graphics: DN / Source: NOAA temperature graph shows change, the digit zero indicates the average for the whole period. Carbon dioxide: ppm means parts per million. T h Lennart Bengtsson.

Research Position / Lennart Bengtsson’s summary

Earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.8 degrees over a hundred years, particularly during the two warming periods: 1910 to 1940 (0.3 degrees) and 1980-2000 (0.5 degrees). Most of the recent increase is due to human emissions.

They last about 15 years, warming has paused. What it depends on is unclear. It is probably a natural variation. This means that the temperature trend right now is far below the IPCC four degrees scenario. The trend will be in the future is unclear, but is likely to break a sign that the climate sensitivity is somewhat lower than in the first models.

Koldioxidhaltens heating effect is logarithmic: the higher the concentration is, the smaller the effect of a further increase.

More heat waves and fewer cold periods are to be reckoned with and can already be observed. The other forms of extreme weather would have increased there is no evidence. In the case of storms seen no change in future models.

The sea level has risen fairly evenly for a hundred years by 2-3 millimeters per year. The pitch is not accelerated.

Yes, humans affect the climate. But no, there is no indication that the warming is so serious that we need to panic. It says Lennart Bengtsson, one of the most highly qualified Swedish climate