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Prof. Pielke Jr. Analysis of UN IPCC Draft report : IPCC ‘shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods’


(For more on UN IPCC AR5 draft see here.)

More on Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.’s Tweets here:

Professor of Environmental Studies Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado:

Pielke Jr.: Of course IPCC AR5 is a draft but the scientific literature it is reporting is available for all to see, and AR5 has it presented accurately

IPCC AR5 draft shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods and is now consistent with scientific literature

IPCC AR5 Draft: “we have high confidence that natural variability dominates any AGW influence in observed/historical TC records”

Draft IPCC Ch2 bottom line on extremes: “generally low confidence that there have been discernable changes over the observed record”

on lack of trends in extremes, exceptions are trends seen in temperature extremes and regional precipitation (but not floods)

On XTCs “unlike in AR4, it is assessed here..there is low confidence of regional changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones”

Bottom line IPCC trop cyclones same as SREX: “low confidence that any reported long term increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust”

More IPCC draft Ch2 on trop cyclones: “current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency”

IPCC on trop cyclones “AR4 assessment needs to be somewhat revised with respect to the confidence levels associated with observed trends”

IPCC draft Ch2 on drought: “The current assessment does not support the AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in droughts”

More IPCC Ch2: “low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”

More IPCC draft report: Ch2: “there is currently no clear and widespread evidence for observed changes in flooding” excpt timing of snowmelt

So what happens now to those whose views on extremes run counter to IPCC? Are they now the new “deniers”? Somehow I doubt it 😉

I have been critical of past IPCC assessments on the science of extremes. But after SREX and now IPCC AR5 SOD the IPCC is 2 for 2. Nice job!


To read Climate Depot’s Extreme Weather Report debunking claims of a ‘new normal’, see here.

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