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Quick, pass carbon tax & prevent rape/murder! New Warmist study: ‘Between 2010 & 2099, climate change will cause an additional 30,000 murders, 200,000 cases of rape, 1.4’

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Crime, Weather, and Climate Change

Matthew Ranson


Abt Associates, Inc.

July 17, 2012

Harvard Kennedy School M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series No. 8

Abstract:

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 50-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2,972 U.S. counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for county-by-month and county-by-year

fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 30,000 murders, 200,000 cases of rape, 1.4 million aggravated assaults, 2.2 million simple assaults, 400,000 robberies, 3.2 million burglaries, 3.0 million cases of larceny, and 1.3 million cases of vehicle theft in the United States.

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